January 2023

[jasons2k]

Geez Lou-weez that wind! Ugh!

[Cromagnum]

Feels much nicer today than it has in a bit.

[redneckweather]

For those that are wondering what happened to the bitter cold that was supposed to come down. It looks like things will get interesting by the end of the month or first part of February with possibly a good cold dump coming down the lee side of the Rockies. If so, hopefully some wintry weather to go along with it.

[don]

Models are looking more and more interesting after the 20th. Not only are they showing a colder pattern setting up but also a stormy pattern with an active subtropical jet.

[Stratton20]

the 8-14 day outlook from NOAA is trending in the right direction!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My ski trip in 2 weeks is starting to look downright frigid.

Can't wait to Alpine ski in this if it verifies.

[DoctorMu]

That debris field in today's long-running Alabama tornado, the debris field from Selma carried for 100 miles. Tuscaloosa level potentially scary.

https://twitter.com/spann/status/161360 ... XxSYJVtYow

https://twitter.com/ChadBlue83/status/1 ... XxSYJVtYow

https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/statu ... XxSYJVtYow

[DoctorMu]

the 8-14 day outlook from NOAA is trending in the right direction!

Yeah, the models have been seeing that cold West, warm East split for awhile...hope the western cold slides our way.

[Cpv17]

Models are looking more and more interesting after the 20th. Not only are they showing a colder pattern setting up but also a stormy pattern with an active subtropical jet.

I’ve been seeing a lot about the SOI crashing the past few days or so but when I look at the models I still don’t see much QPF over Texas. Golden Triangle area to Georgia looks to get pounded, though. Would love to see this shift west.

[don]

Models are looking more and more interesting after the 20th. Not only are they showing a colder pattern setting up but also a stormy pattern with an active subtropical jet.

I’ve been seeing a lot about the SOI crashing the past few days or so but when I look at the models I still don’t see much QPF over Texas. Golden Triangle area to Georgia looks to get pounded, though. Would love to see this shift west.

Keep in mind im not speaking from the perspective of QPF as far as rainfall amounts(Not that that really matters in this range).I'm speaking from the perspective of the ingredients for a winter storm with such an active storm track with cold air potentially in place.Models show more than enough moisture to work with if you're looking for wintry precip.As you don't need much moisture for a winter storm event.So yeah the pattern may not be screaming"flood" but its more than enough for those of us looking for a potential winter event from the pattern change.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Models are looking more and more interesting after the 20th. Not only are they showing a colder pattern setting up but also a stormy pattern with an active subtropical jet.

I’ve been seeing a lot about the SOI crashing the past few days or so but when I look at the models I still don’t see much QPF over Texas. Golden Triangle area to Georgia looks to get pounded, though. Would love to see this shift west.

Keep in mind im not speaking from the perspective of QPF as far as rainfall amounts(Not that that really matters in this range).I'm speaking from the perspective of the ingredients for a winter storm with such an active storm track with cold air potentially in place.Models show more than enough moisture to work with if you're looking for wintry precip.As you don't need much moisture for a winter storm event.So yeah the pattern may not be screaming"flood" but its more than enough for those of us looking for a potential winter event from the pattern change.

Bingo!

[Ptarmigan]

Models are looking more and more interesting after the 20th. Not only are they showing a colder pattern setting up but also a stormy pattern with an active subtropical jet.

I’ve been seeing a lot about the SOI crashing the past few days or so but when I look at the models I still don’t see much QPF over Texas. Golden Triangle area to Georgia looks to get pounded, though. Would love to see this shift west.

A negative SOI favors El Nino development.

I have seen QPF amount forecasts being close to correct, but at different location as forecasted.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro looks really nice!!

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 131643
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1043 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 313 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

Dry/cool/quiet weather will be on tap across SE TX these next couple
of days as surface high pressure continues its trek south into lower
MS River Valley and a flat ridge aloft builds briefly over the area.
For today, high clouds moving in from the NW along with a continuing
light northerly surface flow will help keep high temperatures on the
cool side - mid to upper 50s across the northern counties and around
60 for the central and south. Lows tonight should range from at/near
freezing for the far northern counties (roughly from a Madisonville/
Crockett line)...mid and upper 30s for most locations outside of the
Houston metro...lower 40s inside the metro area and upper 40s at the
beaches. Light winds will be veering from the NE to E during the day
tomorrow...becoming more SE to S by tomorrow night. This should help
to warm daytime temperatures by a couple of degrees for tomorrow af-
ternoon, but a bit more for tomorrow night. Lows tomorrow night will
likely range from the mid and upper 40s for the northern and central
counties...lower to mid 50s south and coast. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

Look for increasing cloudiness and a warming trend to begin on
Sunday with increasing se/s winds in place. Isolated to scattered
showers will re-enter the forecast on Monday across the southeastern
2/3 of the CWA, though capping should keep overall coverage and
amounts on the low side. Dryline still looks to remain to our west
Mon night so have adjusted low temps upward a touch for some of
our w/nw counties.

The next western trof makes its way across the Dessert Southwest
and e-newd across the Panhandle and the Southern Plains going into
midweek. There are some subtle differences between models in regards
to timing & details, but would anticipate better shra/tstm chances
coming into play across the region sometime Wednesday with the
approach of the trof and associated larger scale lift and weak
frontal boundary. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1043 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

VFR and northerly winds continue to prevail. Wind speeds gradually
decrease going into the late afternoon/evening as surface high
pressure moves in. After sunset, winds will become light and
variable. On early Saturday, winds are briefly light and easterly
before becoming predominantly southeasterly throughout most of
the day.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

Moderate to strong north winds and elevated seas will gradually
diminish as the day progresses. SCA`s will remain in effect until
9am for the bays and nearshore waters and until 3pm for the
waters beyond 20nm of shore. Onshore flow resumes on Saturday.
Southerly winds will strengthen Sunday morning and into early next
week as the pressure gradient tightens. This will lead to
increasing wave heights and the potential for caution/advisory
flags. The next front is currently forecast to move into the area
toward mid week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 35 62 46 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 60 37 63 48 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 59 48 62 56 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...47

[jasons2k]

This next dump of Siberian Air could be worse than what we just saw in December. Get ready.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

This next dump of Siberian Air could be worse than what we just saw in December. Get ready.

I was looking at that as I will be on the Continental Divide during the last week of January and first week of February. Could be one of those trips where I stay in a solid 3 layers as I’d expect below zero during the day and -20 to -30 at night.

[sambucol]

This next dump of Siberian Air could be worse than what we just saw in December. Get ready.

We’re prepped for it after December.

[Stratton20]

what makes yall think this next batch of siberian air could be worse?

[Ptarmigan]

This next dump of Siberian Air could be worse than what we just saw in December. Get ready.

This could gets interesting.

[Cpv17]

what makes yall think this next batch of siberian air could be worse?

I’m wondering the same thing. I don’t really see anything on the ensembles through 384 hours that would suggest anything other than maybe upper 20’s or low 30’s for lows. The ridging needs to be over Alaska and NW Canada and into the Artic Ocean. The ensembles show the ridging way too far south and west over the Aleutians or just south of there. It does briefly show a favorable pattern around the 21-23 but other than that it’s nothing exciting, really.