jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:11 am
Just a cold rain for most of us. Maybe some ice north and west of the metro area.
I also no longer see any signals for a major arctic intrusion this month. If I can skate through this weekend without a freeze (it will be close) then my last freeze of the season may be behind me already.
Winter is about done folks.
That’s depressing lol
It really never started. I've worn my coat 2x the entire time and ran the AC more than any heater we have.
I hate to rain on the parade, but highs in the 30s IS an arctic intrusion in SE Texas.
Houston may not see as much impact because of the SE ridge, but it doesn't mean arctic air is not on the doorstep. The band of freezing rain is now near Centerville, after a visit between College Station and Caldwell. Even in Houston, the cold air is overperforming.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:54 am
As I say folks tamper you’re expectations for winter here, you’re living in the wrong part of the US if you’re looking for a sustained cold winter lol we all know its a rollercoaster here , this winter has been below average here with the exception of a few weeks in january, ill take that, not looking forward to the trash spring weather ahead, just shuddering thinking about those nasty 70’s and 80’s
ummmmmm....it's still below freezing in Austin with freezing rain in the area. We have 2 days+ left in this event and the models have been struggling, to be kind. DFW down to the HIll Country will have wintry mischief for days. It's nearly midday and the Hill Country, Waco are in the 20s.
DoctorMu we are sitting at 33, wont be long before its ice , so far it looks based off what i see in the nam and some other guidance, the freezing rain threat really probably wont kick in until either later this evening or early tuesday morning possibly into wednesday morning, in fact the 12k NAM doesnt change us back over to rain until wednesday midday, that would be a huge problem if that verifies
davidiowx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:34 am
Shallow arctic air overperforms more times than it doesn't from what I have seen.
Density always wins. Also this intrusion is a little thicker than expected per S2K.
About a week ago, I thought by this coming weekend I’d be dealing with another hard freeze event. Fast forward to now - and I may not even touch freezing. I don’t consider this a “major” arctic air intrusion - emphasis on “major” - meaning something unusual or significant, something we’ll be talking about years from now.
This ain’t it and I don’t see anything “major” on the horizon either.
Different story for B/CS and points northwest but this is a nothing burger for most of SE Texas.
The two WRF models are the most aggressive models i've seen so far when it comes to how far south the freezing line gets.Not buying them yet still feel things should stay above freezing for most of the area, but will be watching the trends in the mesoscale models and realtime temps just in case.
man if those two models verified, tuesday already looks like a wreck across the state, add in another disturbance like what those two are showing on wednesday, your going to have the Guinness world record for the worlds largest ice rink
Looks like a really bad ice storm for Central Texas. I warned my Austin friends a few days ago to stock up. It is really close to us. A degree or two can make a huge difference.
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023
LIFR to IFR conditions continue to prevail with a shallow cold and
saturated airmass up to around 2000-2500 ft. Ceilings are expected
to lift to IFR over the next few hours with drizzle and sporadic
rain showers. Ceilings and visibilities will gradually fall again
overnight with LIFR conditions expected to occur again, especially
early Tuesday morning. Confidence isn`t high enough yet to include
FZDZ at CLL as of yet, but there is certainly a possibility for a
light glaze of ice overnight tonight. Expect precipitation
coverage to increase across our northern locations on Tuesday
afternoon after 18Z. Ceilings will remain LIFR/IFR well into
Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:42 am
DoctorMu we are sitting at 33, wont be long before its ice , so far it looks based off what i see in the nam and some other guidance, the freezing rain threat really probably wont kick in until either later this evening or early tuesday morning possibly into wednesday morning, in fact the 12k NAM doesnt change us back over to rain until wednesday midday, that would be a huge problem if that verifies
The thing of course to watch out for in the am are the bridges, over Hwy 6 for example. They can ice / frost, even if the temperature is a little above freezing. I expect we could be below freezing at night. We'll see.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Jan 30, 2023 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
davidiowx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:34 am
Shallow arctic air overperforms more times than it doesn't from what I have seen.
Density always wins. Also this intrusion is a little thicker than expected per S2K.
About a week ago, I thought by this coming weekend I’d be dealing with another hard freeze event. Fast forward to now - and I may not even touch freezing. I don’t consider this a “major” arctic air intrusion - emphasis on “major” - meaning something unusual or significant, something we’ll be talking about years from now.
This ain’t it and I don’t see anything “major” on the horizon either.
Different story for B/CS and points northwest but this is a nothing burger for most of SE Texas.
CLL is part of SE Texas and the HOU NWS zone.
You'll just have to live with us!
The SE Ridge - it will just be luck assuming HOU gets away without a freeze. NW Harris Co. (37°F right now) might see one. Lots of cloud cover and inversion - it will be close.
I woke up to -22 wind chill this morning and decided to go for a walk.
I have lots of great pictures from tops of peaks in below zero weather and high winds. Pure zen! I was sweating skiing some back bowls because I had layered up too much.
