January 2023
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- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
31 degrees , winter storm warning and campus still open here, disaster waiting to happen ugh
I remember around 2005 or 2006, in January when spring semester was starting we had a pretty bad ice storm. They didn't close campus until it was already piling up.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:16 am 31 degrees , winter storm warning and campus still open here, disaster waiting to happen ugh
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4496
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 311125
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
I believe the technical term for the weather over the next couple
of days is known as `gross`. While no part of Southeast Texas will
escape a prolonged period of drizzle, light rain, and fog we find
ourselves mired in, an influx of cold air along the northern and
western edges of our forecast area will add an entirely undesired
icy dimension to things. Here are the key things to know about:
① The winter storm warning for Burleson County has been expanded
to include Brazos, Madison, and Washington counties. A small shift
in the band of heaviest freezing rain, especially tonight into
tomorrow morning, has nudged forecast accumulations in excess of
1/8 inch into these counties, particularly their northwestern
portions.
② Along with that, the winter weather advisory for some
ice accumulation up to 1/8 inch has expanded to include Walker,
Grimes, Waller, Austin, and Colorado counties. The higher concern
here also is in the northwestern portions of the counties, with a
sharp gradient to little or no accumulation in the southeastern
part of these counties.
③ Another concern, despite being a `wintry` event, will also be
flooding. Cold and icy air/ground will enhance runoff of rainfall,
making flooding issues crop up with less rain than usual. This
may become particularly important tomorrow and tomorrow night as
conditions warm modestly, allowing for some higher rain rates to
work in. Those north of the Houston metro have a greater concern
for this setup.
④ And on the warm side of all this mess are multiple marine
threats. The short term concern is sea fog, with a dense fog
advisory on the waters through at least mid-morning. Additionally,
a small craft advisory is in effect for later today through at
least tomorrow morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
The weather is already gross early this morning, and we`re just
getting started...and the office is close to the Gulf, so we`re
not even close to where the icy stuff is gonna happen! Yes, the
short term forecast is not really a question of *when* the weather
is going to stink, but more one of *how much* it`s going to stink.
Why? Well, there are probably a whole lot of philosophical
questions we can wax about on that, but let`s stick with the
scientific things I can speak to in this little forecast
discussion. At the surface, we`ve got a cold front sitting
offshore over the Gulf, but it`s not that far off...just enough to
seep in some colder air from the north. This colder air is
extremely shallow, however. 925 mb winds are still southerly over
virtually the entire forecast area, and with this interface
between colder surface air and warmer air aloft, we are mired
area-wide in a morass of very low clouds, mist, fog, drizzle, and
light showers. If you can imagine a way to get water droplets
around here, we`ve got it.
Of cooourrrrsssse, as we`ve still got that very shallow pool of
cold air working in, we can`t really expect things to stay all
liquid everywhere. Already at this early hour, Caldwell has
slipped below the freezing mark and reported freezing/frozen
precip. Though it`s the only ASOS/AWOS station at or below
freezing, a glance at observations on other networks show the
freezing line has at least sporadically pushed into all the other
winter storm warning counties (shocker, I know). With north winds
and a thick, thick blanket of clouds preventing solar radiation
from reaching the surface, I think the best we can hope for today
is that the freezing line doesn`t push any farther south than it
is. This is already enough for a pretty lousy day, and that`s not
even getting into tonight. The only real silver lining is that
since any sub-freezing air is very shallow, there`s very high
confidence here that the only two precip types we have to deal
with are rain(/drizzle) or freezing rain(/drizzle).
So, tonight. As we lose what little insolation we managed to get
during the day, continuing north winds should push the freezing
line deeper into the area. How deep? If you`ve got a winter storm
warning, all the way through your county. If you`re in a winter
weather advisory, it goes partially through your county. Good news
for spots like Katy and Eagle Lake. Columbus, Crockett and
Hempstead? Eh...maybe not so much. While we get this battle of
surface cold air and warmer air just above it doing battle, we can
look for a stream of little localized vort maxes in the southwest
flow well aloft to provide pulses of rainfall on and off. Though
rain rates won`t be exceptionally high, things will add up through
the night. This looks to push ice accumulation over an eighth-inch
and towards a quarter-inch in the warning area. This is likely to
be higher in parts of Burleson County, which is seeing an onset of
freezing rain earlier, and will have it prolong the latest. Some
accumulations around or below an eighth-inch are expected, with a
focus on the northwestern parts of these counties.
The main uncertainty here is where, precisely, the band of highest
rain sets up. Though it has drifted somewhat southeast as we come
into range of higher-res guidance, the worst of it is still to our
north and west. So, we`ll need to watch how far south the colder
air gets, and where the main rains set up. If it`s not where
expected, we may need to reconfigure the warnings and advisories
some more. Should that shift be to the south, some of these
warning counties will need to be on guard for more significant
icing impacts. I don`t think that`s going to happen, as the high-
res models should be handling this really shallow airmass better,
but when the cold air is this shallow, it pays to be ready for
surprises.
Through the morning tomorrow, we`ll again take advantage of
whatever insolation we can get through the muck to push the
freezing line back to the north of the area, gradually bringing an
end to freezing rain. And though north winds stay in place at the
surface, it seems ultimately the warm air will win this battle,
with rain most likely to stay liquid through tomorrow night.
However, this introduces a new problem - flooding. Cold ground and
ice accumulations are going to much more effectively turn rainfall
into runoff, At the same time, it appears some of the highest rain
rates look to take over tomorrow night. Now, fortunately, these
still aren`t expected to be terribly high. Still, the prospect of
increasing rain rates over ground that`s absorbing rain less
efficiently means more water headed towards local streams and
low-lying areas. WPC has a slight risk for excessive rain out for
most of the area north of Houston, and this seems pretty
reasonable as this overlaps with the coldest/iciest antecedent
conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
A coastal low will exit east of our area on Thursday as a cold
front pushes in behind it. Showers and storms should taper off
throughout the day as the front clears our area, though overcast
skies should prevail into the night. With northerly flow still in
place, Thursday`s lows should remain in the 30s across most of the
region and lower 40s along the immediate coast/barrier islands.
Skies should clear out on Friday as surface high pressure drops in
from the Plains. Daytime heating will work against CAA, bringing
highs mostly in the 50s across much of SE Texas. Overnight lows
will be a tad cooler than the night before, but largely still in
the 30s/40s throughout our area.
Onshore flow should return on Saturday as the surface high pushes
east of the state. This will usher in a warming trend with
daytime highs climbing into the upper 50s/60s over the weekend.
Highs will aim to break 70 degrees early next week as onshore flow
strengthens from a deepening surface low over the TX/OK
panhandle. Progs of more active weather are in store later in the
upcoming week as moisture builds ahead of another upper level
trough over the Western CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS, northerly flow, patchy fog and drizzle
will prevail across the region for much of the TAF period. Sub
freezing temperatures could bring freezing rain across our
northern terminals, especially during the overnight/early morning
hours at KCLL. Mixed precipitation/ice cannot be fully ruled out
for KUTS either. Scattered to isolated showers late tonight will
become more widespread heading into Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
Areas of fog will prevail the next couple of days. Visibilities will
vary, though it could be around 1 mile at times. Moderate northeast
winds will strengthen this afternoon, warranting the need for
caution flags and advisories overnight. A warm front will make its
way into the waters beyond 20nm of shore on Wednesday. Periods of
light rain will be possible through midweek with weak upper level
disturbances passing overhead. Look for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday in advance of another
cold front. Drier, but breezy conditions are expected in the wake of
the front late Thursday into Friday as surface high pressure builds
in. Onshore flow should return on Saturday as this surface high
pushes east of the state.
Low tides will be around 0.5ft below MLLW through this week due to
low astronomical tides plus the offshore winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 35 31 37 36 / 70 50 90 90
Houston (IAH) 45 37 44 41 / 40 30 60 80
Galveston (GLS) 51 44 50 48 / 20 30 40 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ163-177-
198-210>212.
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ176-195>197.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST
Wednesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 311125
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
I believe the technical term for the weather over the next couple
of days is known as `gross`. While no part of Southeast Texas will
escape a prolonged period of drizzle, light rain, and fog we find
ourselves mired in, an influx of cold air along the northern and
western edges of our forecast area will add an entirely undesired
icy dimension to things. Here are the key things to know about:
① The winter storm warning for Burleson County has been expanded
to include Brazos, Madison, and Washington counties. A small shift
in the band of heaviest freezing rain, especially tonight into
tomorrow morning, has nudged forecast accumulations in excess of
1/8 inch into these counties, particularly their northwestern
portions.
② Along with that, the winter weather advisory for some
ice accumulation up to 1/8 inch has expanded to include Walker,
Grimes, Waller, Austin, and Colorado counties. The higher concern
here also is in the northwestern portions of the counties, with a
sharp gradient to little or no accumulation in the southeastern
part of these counties.
③ Another concern, despite being a `wintry` event, will also be
flooding. Cold and icy air/ground will enhance runoff of rainfall,
making flooding issues crop up with less rain than usual. This
may become particularly important tomorrow and tomorrow night as
conditions warm modestly, allowing for some higher rain rates to
work in. Those north of the Houston metro have a greater concern
for this setup.
④ And on the warm side of all this mess are multiple marine
threats. The short term concern is sea fog, with a dense fog
advisory on the waters through at least mid-morning. Additionally,
a small craft advisory is in effect for later today through at
least tomorrow morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
The weather is already gross early this morning, and we`re just
getting started...and the office is close to the Gulf, so we`re
not even close to where the icy stuff is gonna happen! Yes, the
short term forecast is not really a question of *when* the weather
is going to stink, but more one of *how much* it`s going to stink.
Why? Well, there are probably a whole lot of philosophical
questions we can wax about on that, but let`s stick with the
scientific things I can speak to in this little forecast
discussion. At the surface, we`ve got a cold front sitting
offshore over the Gulf, but it`s not that far off...just enough to
seep in some colder air from the north. This colder air is
extremely shallow, however. 925 mb winds are still southerly over
virtually the entire forecast area, and with this interface
between colder surface air and warmer air aloft, we are mired
area-wide in a morass of very low clouds, mist, fog, drizzle, and
light showers. If you can imagine a way to get water droplets
around here, we`ve got it.
Of cooourrrrsssse, as we`ve still got that very shallow pool of
cold air working in, we can`t really expect things to stay all
liquid everywhere. Already at this early hour, Caldwell has
slipped below the freezing mark and reported freezing/frozen
precip. Though it`s the only ASOS/AWOS station at or below
freezing, a glance at observations on other networks show the
freezing line has at least sporadically pushed into all the other
winter storm warning counties (shocker, I know). With north winds
and a thick, thick blanket of clouds preventing solar radiation
from reaching the surface, I think the best we can hope for today
is that the freezing line doesn`t push any farther south than it
is. This is already enough for a pretty lousy day, and that`s not
even getting into tonight. The only real silver lining is that
since any sub-freezing air is very shallow, there`s very high
confidence here that the only two precip types we have to deal
with are rain(/drizzle) or freezing rain(/drizzle).
So, tonight. As we lose what little insolation we managed to get
during the day, continuing north winds should push the freezing
line deeper into the area. How deep? If you`ve got a winter storm
warning, all the way through your county. If you`re in a winter
weather advisory, it goes partially through your county. Good news
for spots like Katy and Eagle Lake. Columbus, Crockett and
Hempstead? Eh...maybe not so much. While we get this battle of
surface cold air and warmer air just above it doing battle, we can
look for a stream of little localized vort maxes in the southwest
flow well aloft to provide pulses of rainfall on and off. Though
rain rates won`t be exceptionally high, things will add up through
the night. This looks to push ice accumulation over an eighth-inch
and towards a quarter-inch in the warning area. This is likely to
be higher in parts of Burleson County, which is seeing an onset of
freezing rain earlier, and will have it prolong the latest. Some
accumulations around or below an eighth-inch are expected, with a
focus on the northwestern parts of these counties.
The main uncertainty here is where, precisely, the band of highest
rain sets up. Though it has drifted somewhat southeast as we come
into range of higher-res guidance, the worst of it is still to our
north and west. So, we`ll need to watch how far south the colder
air gets, and where the main rains set up. If it`s not where
expected, we may need to reconfigure the warnings and advisories
some more. Should that shift be to the south, some of these
warning counties will need to be on guard for more significant
icing impacts. I don`t think that`s going to happen, as the high-
res models should be handling this really shallow airmass better,
but when the cold air is this shallow, it pays to be ready for
surprises.
Through the morning tomorrow, we`ll again take advantage of
whatever insolation we can get through the muck to push the
freezing line back to the north of the area, gradually bringing an
end to freezing rain. And though north winds stay in place at the
surface, it seems ultimately the warm air will win this battle,
with rain most likely to stay liquid through tomorrow night.
However, this introduces a new problem - flooding. Cold ground and
ice accumulations are going to much more effectively turn rainfall
into runoff, At the same time, it appears some of the highest rain
rates look to take over tomorrow night. Now, fortunately, these
still aren`t expected to be terribly high. Still, the prospect of
increasing rain rates over ground that`s absorbing rain less
efficiently means more water headed towards local streams and
low-lying areas. WPC has a slight risk for excessive rain out for
most of the area north of Houston, and this seems pretty
reasonable as this overlaps with the coldest/iciest antecedent
conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
A coastal low will exit east of our area on Thursday as a cold
front pushes in behind it. Showers and storms should taper off
throughout the day as the front clears our area, though overcast
skies should prevail into the night. With northerly flow still in
place, Thursday`s lows should remain in the 30s across most of the
region and lower 40s along the immediate coast/barrier islands.
Skies should clear out on Friday as surface high pressure drops in
from the Plains. Daytime heating will work against CAA, bringing
highs mostly in the 50s across much of SE Texas. Overnight lows
will be a tad cooler than the night before, but largely still in
the 30s/40s throughout our area.
Onshore flow should return on Saturday as the surface high pushes
east of the state. This will usher in a warming trend with
daytime highs climbing into the upper 50s/60s over the weekend.
Highs will aim to break 70 degrees early next week as onshore flow
strengthens from a deepening surface low over the TX/OK
panhandle. Progs of more active weather are in store later in the
upcoming week as moisture builds ahead of another upper level
trough over the Western CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS, northerly flow, patchy fog and drizzle
will prevail across the region for much of the TAF period. Sub
freezing temperatures could bring freezing rain across our
northern terminals, especially during the overnight/early morning
hours at KCLL. Mixed precipitation/ice cannot be fully ruled out
for KUTS either. Scattered to isolated showers late tonight will
become more widespread heading into Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
Areas of fog will prevail the next couple of days. Visibilities will
vary, though it could be around 1 mile at times. Moderate northeast
winds will strengthen this afternoon, warranting the need for
caution flags and advisories overnight. A warm front will make its
way into the waters beyond 20nm of shore on Wednesday. Periods of
light rain will be possible through midweek with weak upper level
disturbances passing overhead. Look for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday in advance of another
cold front. Drier, but breezy conditions are expected in the wake of
the front late Thursday into Friday as surface high pressure builds
in. Onshore flow should return on Saturday as this surface high
pushes east of the state.
Low tides will be around 0.5ft below MLLW through this week due to
low astronomical tides plus the offshore winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 35 31 37 36 / 70 50 90 90
Houston (IAH) 45 37 44 41 / 40 30 60 80
Galveston (GLS) 51 44 50 48 / 20 30 40 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ163-177-
198-210>212.
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ176-195>197.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST
Wednesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
MARINE...03
That is about as close as it gets to being in a freezing rain storm or flooding rain possibly in Houston although I would take the ice so I could be off from work for a day. We would need tropical storm ish type rain to shut down the area with just rain. I would take 2021 but without the power outages
Up to 40 here. 34 in Huntsville. 50 in Galveston. 59 in Lake Charles. Quite a temperature gradient, almost 48 hours after frontal passage. Translation: that SE ridge is stout.
Yes it is.
32°F here and that's where it's going to stay for the next 24 hours+. Caldwell to Austin to San Antonio are a slippery mess. DFW indeed had a deeper pocked of arctic air and have been full sleet instead of freezing rain.
The latest ARW has it just about right. I bought everything for a big pot of Fiesta soup last night.
![Image](https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwarw/2023013112/048/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png)
32°F here and that's where it's going to stay for the next 24 hours+. Caldwell to Austin to San Antonio are a slippery mess. DFW indeed had a deeper pocked of arctic air and have been full sleet instead of freezing rain.
The latest ARW has it just about right. I bought everything for a big pot of Fiesta soup last night.
![Image](https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwarw/2023013112/048/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png)
-
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
when is the precipitation expected to pick up here? seems like everything is out to the west of us like yesterday
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4496
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail through the period with CIGs
remaining between 300 and 600ft. Northerly winds around 10kts will
also continue through the period with wind gusts up to 20kts
possible at LBX and GLS. Patchy fog and scattered light rain
showers/drizzle will be possible across the area through
Wednesday with freezing rain possible this evening through
Wednesday afternoon at CLL and UTS. There will be an increase in
coverage of the showers Wednesday afternoon from the south to the
north.
Fowler
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail through the period with CIGs
remaining between 300 and 600ft. Northerly winds around 10kts will
also continue through the period with wind gusts up to 20kts
possible at LBX and GLS. Patchy fog and scattered light rain
showers/drizzle will be possible across the area through
Wednesday with freezing rain possible this evening through
Wednesday afternoon at CLL and UTS. There will be an increase in
coverage of the showers Wednesday afternoon from the south to the
north.
Fowler
Up to 43 here. Just took the dogs outside. Feels colder than 43!! That moist air under overcast just makes it miserable. I have a small heater going in my office. Since there is no excitement here except a cold, chilly drizzle, I’m done with this. Ready for those 60’s and 70’s I see in the forecast after this cold snap.
Ground is warm, and now up to 33 degrees. Roads should be fine until at least tonight.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:16 am 31 degrees , winter storm warning and campus still open here, disaster waiting to happen ugh
Temp has been falling here all day. Was 40 earlier this morning, now down to 36.
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4496
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 312042
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
242 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
The overall theme for the short term forecast is disgusting.
Before getting into the freezing rain forecast, let`s talk
temperatures. Burleson, Brazos, and Madison We will be watching counties
will be dropping below freezing this afternoon and will likely
not climb back above freezing until tomorrow afternoon.
Temperatures tonight will be falling to or below freezing for
areas north of I-10 and west of I-45, and also for areas north of
Lake Livingston. South of I-10 and east of I-45 will drop into the
mid to upper 30s. Those looking for a warm up on Wednesday will
need to go to Florida as high temperatures here will be in the mid
to upper 30s across the northern Brazos Valley and up through
Houston County and then low to mid 40s for most of the area. The
temperature graph for Wednesday will flatline as thick cloud cover
will keep low temperatures Wednesday night just be a few degrees
lower than the high temperature of the day.
Now let`s get into the meat of the freezing rain. Temperatures will
slowly fall below freezing at the surface across the northwestern
corner of the region through this afternoon. However, this will be a
very shallow cold air layer with above freezing temperatures above
925mb (peaking at 10C at 850mb). The potential for freezing rain
will persist for the northern Brazos Valley through late Wednesday
morning, but may also see some isolated -FZRA Wednesday night. No
change to the warning/advisory configuration was made with Winter
Storm Warnings in effect through Noon Wednesday for Brazos,
Burleson, Washington, and Madison counties with Advisories in effect
for Colorado, Austin, Waller, Grimes, Walker and Houston counties.
There is the potential for Burleson, Washington, and Brazos counties
to see Advisories Wednesday night, but the potential is so low that
I am not extending the products at this time. Up to 0.15 to 0.2" of
ice accretion in the northwestern portion of the warned area is
possible with a light glaze to less than 0.1" is expected in the
northwestern portions of the counties in the advisory.
There is a possible solution where we do not get as much ice
accretion as expected due to rainfall, especially in more moderate
rain rates, pulling that elevated warm layer down towards the
surface. This would keep the rain droplets from supercooling - thus
no freezing rain. This isn`t the most likely solution, but something
to keep in the back of our minds going into late tomorrow morning
when rain rates may increase a bit.
Speaking of rain, we also have the potential to see some locally
heavy rainfall across the northern half of the region beginning
Wednesday night and Thursday. Generally up to 1 to 2 inches is
expected with isolated high amounts. WPC has placed the areas along
and north of I-45 in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for
Wednesday night. This amount of rainfall would normally not amount
to any impacts, but between the already saturated, cold ground any
rainfall may lead to minor flooding in areas of poor drainage. Minor
river flooding is also possible in spots along the Trinity and San
Jacinto rivers as well as already high bayous in northern Harris and
Montgomery counties.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
We will be watching showers and thunderstorms and the risk of locally
heavy rainfall move off to the east as the day progresses on Thursday
as the coastal low heads on out of the area. Much drier air will filter
into the area behind this system as surface high pressure builds in
from the north. A dry forecast is in store for the area late Thursday
night through Monday with north winds at the start of the period becoming
mainly east to southeast over the weekend. Strengthening south to southeast
winds at the start of next week can be expected.
For temperatures, if you like a warming trend you will like this. Highs
in the 40s/50s on Thursday will be in the 50s Friday, in the 50s/60s
Saturday, in the 60s Sunday and in the 60s/70s on Monday. Inland lows
will be a little slower to rise, with readings in the 30s Friday and
Saturday and in the 40s Sunday and Monday.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail through the period with CIGs
remaining between 300 and 600ft. Northerly winds around 10kts will
also continue through the period with wind gusts up to 20kts
possible at LBX and GLS. Patchy fog and scattered light rain
showers/drizzle will be possible across the area through
Wednesday with freezing rain possible this evening through
Wednesday afternoon at CLL and UTS. There will be an increase in
coverage of the showers Wednesday afternoon from the south to the
north.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
Areas of fog will remain possible into Thursday morning. Visibilities
will vary, though it could be around 1 mile at times. Otherwise, mainly
moderate north to northeast winds can be expected through Thursday as
a coastal storm system organizes and moves up the coast and then eventually
off to the east. Caution and/or Advisory Flags will be needed. Before
the system moves on out, expect periods of mainly light rain with the
possibility of showers and thunderstorms mainly Wednesday night through
Thursday morning. Drier but breezy conditions are expected Thursday
night and Friday in the wake of the system (again, Caution and/or Advisory
Flags will be needed). Lighter east to southeast winds along with lowering
seas can be expected over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 31 37 35 46 / 50 90 80 70
Houston (IAH) 38 43 40 49 / 30 60 70 80
Galveston (GLS) 45 49 47 54 / 40 60 60 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ163-177-
198-210>212.
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ176-195>197.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday afternoon
for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...42
FXUS64 KHGX 312042
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
242 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
The overall theme for the short term forecast is disgusting.
Before getting into the freezing rain forecast, let`s talk
temperatures. Burleson, Brazos, and Madison We will be watching counties
will be dropping below freezing this afternoon and will likely
not climb back above freezing until tomorrow afternoon.
Temperatures tonight will be falling to or below freezing for
areas north of I-10 and west of I-45, and also for areas north of
Lake Livingston. South of I-10 and east of I-45 will drop into the
mid to upper 30s. Those looking for a warm up on Wednesday will
need to go to Florida as high temperatures here will be in the mid
to upper 30s across the northern Brazos Valley and up through
Houston County and then low to mid 40s for most of the area. The
temperature graph for Wednesday will flatline as thick cloud cover
will keep low temperatures Wednesday night just be a few degrees
lower than the high temperature of the day.
Now let`s get into the meat of the freezing rain. Temperatures will
slowly fall below freezing at the surface across the northwestern
corner of the region through this afternoon. However, this will be a
very shallow cold air layer with above freezing temperatures above
925mb (peaking at 10C at 850mb). The potential for freezing rain
will persist for the northern Brazos Valley through late Wednesday
morning, but may also see some isolated -FZRA Wednesday night. No
change to the warning/advisory configuration was made with Winter
Storm Warnings in effect through Noon Wednesday for Brazos,
Burleson, Washington, and Madison counties with Advisories in effect
for Colorado, Austin, Waller, Grimes, Walker and Houston counties.
There is the potential for Burleson, Washington, and Brazos counties
to see Advisories Wednesday night, but the potential is so low that
I am not extending the products at this time. Up to 0.15 to 0.2" of
ice accretion in the northwestern portion of the warned area is
possible with a light glaze to less than 0.1" is expected in the
northwestern portions of the counties in the advisory.
There is a possible solution where we do not get as much ice
accretion as expected due to rainfall, especially in more moderate
rain rates, pulling that elevated warm layer down towards the
surface. This would keep the rain droplets from supercooling - thus
no freezing rain. This isn`t the most likely solution, but something
to keep in the back of our minds going into late tomorrow morning
when rain rates may increase a bit.
Speaking of rain, we also have the potential to see some locally
heavy rainfall across the northern half of the region beginning
Wednesday night and Thursday. Generally up to 1 to 2 inches is
expected with isolated high amounts. WPC has placed the areas along
and north of I-45 in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for
Wednesday night. This amount of rainfall would normally not amount
to any impacts, but between the already saturated, cold ground any
rainfall may lead to minor flooding in areas of poor drainage. Minor
river flooding is also possible in spots along the Trinity and San
Jacinto rivers as well as already high bayous in northern Harris and
Montgomery counties.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
We will be watching showers and thunderstorms and the risk of locally
heavy rainfall move off to the east as the day progresses on Thursday
as the coastal low heads on out of the area. Much drier air will filter
into the area behind this system as surface high pressure builds in
from the north. A dry forecast is in store for the area late Thursday
night through Monday with north winds at the start of the period becoming
mainly east to southeast over the weekend. Strengthening south to southeast
winds at the start of next week can be expected.
For temperatures, if you like a warming trend you will like this. Highs
in the 40s/50s on Thursday will be in the 50s Friday, in the 50s/60s
Saturday, in the 60s Sunday and in the 60s/70s on Monday. Inland lows
will be a little slower to rise, with readings in the 30s Friday and
Saturday and in the 40s Sunday and Monday.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail through the period with CIGs
remaining between 300 and 600ft. Northerly winds around 10kts will
also continue through the period with wind gusts up to 20kts
possible at LBX and GLS. Patchy fog and scattered light rain
showers/drizzle will be possible across the area through
Wednesday with freezing rain possible this evening through
Wednesday afternoon at CLL and UTS. There will be an increase in
coverage of the showers Wednesday afternoon from the south to the
north.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
Areas of fog will remain possible into Thursday morning. Visibilities
will vary, though it could be around 1 mile at times. Otherwise, mainly
moderate north to northeast winds can be expected through Thursday as
a coastal storm system organizes and moves up the coast and then eventually
off to the east. Caution and/or Advisory Flags will be needed. Before
the system moves on out, expect periods of mainly light rain with the
possibility of showers and thunderstorms mainly Wednesday night through
Thursday morning. Drier but breezy conditions are expected Thursday
night and Friday in the wake of the system (again, Caution and/or Advisory
Flags will be needed). Lighter east to southeast winds along with lowering
seas can be expected over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 31 37 35 46 / 50 90 80 70
Houston (IAH) 38 43 40 49 / 30 60 70 80
Galveston (GLS) 45 49 47 54 / 40 60 60 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ163-177-
198-210>212.
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ176-195>197.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday afternoon
for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...42
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- Posts: 943
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
It is cooling decently around Hooks apt. It is now 38 after being in the 40s earlier. Bush has 39
It does feel a bit colder out. I wonder if the unmodified cold from the ice, etc. is starting to filter down into the area on those northly winds.
Welp. Texas A&M cancelled classed tomorrow. That probably ensures a plain rain even for us. ![Wink ;)](./images/smilies/icon_e_wink.gif)
Winter Weather Closure - February 1
January 31, 2023 04:31 PM
Texas A&M University is canceling classes at the Bryan-College Station campus on Wednesday, Feb. 1, as the potential for winter weather threatens the area.
Aggie Dining will have modified hours of service. Visit tx.ag/alternatedininghours for details.
Bus service will not run, and the following are closed: University Recreational Sports facilities and all Texas A&M Libraries.
Employees who perform duties essential to clinical services, facility management, safety or security should confirm reporting protocol with supervisors. All other employees are authorized to work remotely on Wednesday. Employees who cannot perform assigned tasks remotely should affirm their circumstances with supervisors and request emergency leave, as appropriate.
For campuses outside of Bryan-College Station, check your respective campus website for potential closures and weather updates.
University officials will continue to monitor the situation and provide updated information if additional impacts to campus operations will occur. Normal operations are expected to resume Thursday, Feb. 2.
![Wink ;)](./images/smilies/icon_e_wink.gif)
Winter Weather Closure - February 1
January 31, 2023 04:31 PM
Texas A&M University is canceling classes at the Bryan-College Station campus on Wednesday, Feb. 1, as the potential for winter weather threatens the area.
Aggie Dining will have modified hours of service. Visit tx.ag/alternatedininghours for details.
Bus service will not run, and the following are closed: University Recreational Sports facilities and all Texas A&M Libraries.
Employees who perform duties essential to clinical services, facility management, safety or security should confirm reporting protocol with supervisors. All other employees are authorized to work remotely on Wednesday. Employees who cannot perform assigned tasks remotely should affirm their circumstances with supervisors and request emergency leave, as appropriate.
For campuses outside of Bryan-College Station, check your respective campus website for potential closures and weather updates.
University officials will continue to monitor the situation and provide updated information if additional impacts to campus operations will occur. Normal operations are expected to resume Thursday, Feb. 2.
-
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
DoctorMu wouldnt be surprised if thays the case haha, although the HRRR continues to say Ice ice baby, spits out 0.21 for CS lol
The freezing line runs from northern San Antonio to Bryan to Jacksonville to Texarkana.
We've cooled 2°F in the last hour to freezing. The phone weather app is still pushing for temps warming overnight.
HRRR and WRF-ARW prog temps dipping to 30°F or below through tomorrow early afternoon. NAM down to 31°F tomorrow. RGEM down to 28°F. We'll see.
![Image](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2023013118/rgem_T2m_us_21.png)
We've cooled 2°F in the last hour to freezing. The phone weather app is still pushing for temps warming overnight.
HRRR and WRF-ARW prog temps dipping to 30°F or below through tomorrow early afternoon. NAM down to 31°F tomorrow. RGEM down to 28°F. We'll see.
![Image](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2023013118/rgem_T2m_us_21.png)
Could be. The mesos are in good agreement.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:53 pm DoctorMu wouldnt be surprised if thays the case haha, although the HRRR continues to say Ice ice baby, spits out 0.21 for CS lol
It depends upon the fortitude of The Wall.
![Image](https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwarw/2023013112/048/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKY_Bh53YDE