February 2023

[Stratton20]

latest 6-10 day outlook from the CPC, slightly favors below normal temps here, the weekend of valentines could be chilly

[jasons2k]

The azaleas are starting to bloom at Robert Fleming Park in The Woodlands.

[Thundersleet]

All 5 of those photos are spectacular, MontgomeryCo. I am glad you and your wife were able to go. Personally, I would have loved to have sled down those snow covered hills in a domed sled or in a traditional sled. Whee!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The azaleas are starting to bloom at Robert Fleming Park in The Woodlands.

Just in time to be crushed by a late February freeze. I’ve seen that happen all too often with our bushes.

[DoctorMu]

The azaleas are starting to bloom at Robert Fleming Park in The Woodlands.

Just in time to be crushed by a late February freeze. I’ve seen that happen all too often with our bushes.

I planted azaleas and gardenias in our first year in the Brazos Valley. The alkaline water, alkaline soil, and relentless sun struck them all dead by the end of June. The first of many bitter lessons about horticulture up here in CLL.

[jasons2k]

And just like that....one day, everybody decided to be outside.

I finally emptied the rain bucket - 6.30" over the last 8 days.

[redneckweather]

Went to Lowe's yesterday and they just got stocked up with all the veggies, plants, flowers, hanging baskets etc etc. Spring is just about here! I'm going to fire up the tractor, hook up the tiller and start getting the ground prepped for my veggie garden after this next rain.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 354 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

The story of the near term forecast is unseasonably warm
conditions, as well as the potential for fog. Attention for dense
fog potential will shift to the Gulf waters and coast as the
environment becomes one more supportive of sea fog. Then, late
Tuesday afternoon we pivot to looking at thunderstorm potential
leading into a cold front passage Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. These are some key things to think about:

① Look for shower and thunderstorm chances to return to lead us
into our next cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain may
begin to creep in from the northwest as early as Tuesday
afternoon, but Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be the
main window for action.

② The entire area is given a marginal risk of excessive rainfall by
WPC. Given the time of year and recent rainfall, we are somewhat
primed for rainfall to convert to runoff. Where there are stronger
storms and/or some training of rain, there is some potential for
localized flooding issues in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

③ SPC also has a marginal risk for the entire area
for severe weather - the primary threats here would be damaging
winds and a tornado or two. There are some factors that could
support severe storms in this window, but only if the ingredients
line up to support it.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 354 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

Good morning from the fog and warmth section of the forecast
discussion. Fog is cropping up in observations around the area, as
well as on satellite. Unlike the last couple of nights where the
Brazos River seemed to be the epicenter of most fog, patchy fog is
more broadly distributed across the area, with a bit more
widespread fog closer to the coast. Intensity generally appears to
be not as significant as the past couple of nights at this same
time, but there have definitely been flashes of dense fog here and
there hinting at the potential for more significant dense fog by
sunrise. Additionally, we may expect some low clouds to crop up
as well north of the Houston metro.

As the sun rises through the morning and begins an unseasonably
warm day, with any clouds lifting and scattering. Fog should work
itself out for the most part by mid-morning, though some light fog
or haze may hang around on the bays and nearshore Gulf as high
dewpoint air spreads over cooler waters in the middle 50s. Pushing
highs a little more towards the higher end of guidance - not a
ton, but enough to get temps rising into the 70s for all but those
right on the cooler water and into the upper 70s on the plains
southwest of Houston. It`s pretty standard procedure for me to
bump temps up a bit in this pre-frontal situation, as some
guidance never quite tends to keep up with how warm we can really
get with southwest flow in the 700-850 mb layer.

Tonight, the unseasonable warmth continues. Surging dewpoints will
keep the temperature floor high, and closer to average highs for
early February than average lows. Winds will be up, which should
have us looking at low stratus and streamer showers for most of
the inland area rather than fog. However, the onshore flow
continuing to pump high moisture air over cooler waters sets us up
for the development of sea fog over the waters and coast. Winds
aren`t quite the textbook fetch for real dense banks of fog, but
it seems entirely reasonable to expect at least plenty of patchy
sea fog, with dense spots here and there.

If you liked the warmth for today, tomorrow should be even
better! The strategy is again to shoot for the warmer side of the
guidance, which means 70s area-wide, except maybe right on the
Gulf. Even then, my Galveston high is 70. Middle to upper 70s
expand across a greater portion of the area, and in some of the
warmer river valleys, like spots along the Brazos, I go ahead and
do it - 80 degree highs! Some models are more gung ho with precip
in the afternoon, particularly in the northwest around Caldwell
and College Station. Given our prolonged southwesterly flow, I`d
expect us to be pretty well capped. So I went ahead and shaved
down those PoPs. I`ve still got slight chance to chances around
the area - we`ve got precipitable water progged to rise to around
or above 1.2 inches and could easily squeeze out some showers
underneath the cap. But I`m not necessarily as aggressive as the
most convective guidance. I suspect we`ll need the front to get
closer, and more height falls aloft, something that should hold
off until the long term - I`ll let that forecaster tell you more
about that (potential spoiler: it may or may not actually be more
exciting to read about there).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

Rain chances will be on the increase Tuesday night as a mid/upper low
approaches from the west and an associated surface cold front moves into
southeast Texas. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF are now in better agreement with
the cold front timing and rain chances Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
cold front is expected to push off the coast during the late morning or
mid-day hours on Wednesday. Expecting some coastal and/or sea fog Tuesday
night and into Wednesday morning. There appears to be enough instability for
at least isolated thunderstorms ahead of and along the cold front. Model
guidance is generally depicting 24 hour rainfall totals in the 1/2 to 2
inch range Tuesday night and Wednesday. Could see isolated totals to
around 3 inches across N/NW areas.

An amplifying large scale mid/upper level trough follows the mid/upper
low at the end of the week. A secondary dry cold front will usher in colder
air Friday and Saturday. N/NW areas are likely to see freezing min
temperatures Saturday morning. Plenty of sun though in the Thu-Sat period
with this colder and drier airmass. Max temps will be in the 50s Fri/Sat
with a warmup into the 60s expected on Sunday afternoon. Rain chances will
enter the picture again next Sunday night and into Monday as a deep
mid/upper low located over the desert southwest approaches Texas from the
west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

Two stark beginnings to this cycle - those with calmer winds are
LIFR for CIGs or VSBY; where winds are up a bit, VFR with FEW/SCT
or even SKC. Worked to trend first few hours to existing
observational trends, then VFR throughout with gusty S to SE winds
this afternoon. Gusts may tail off this evening, but winds
themselves stay up. This is likely to mean less fog more CIGs (VFR
to MVFR) tonight, except at GLS which may see impact from sea
fog. Not highly confident on specifics, but sketch out a general
degradation from VFR to IFR for that terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

Light onshore winds will prevail tonight with some patchy light
fog possible. Winds strengthen today ahead of the next cold front,
which is forecasted to move into the coastal waters on Wednesday.
Patchy sea fog, dense at times, will be possible beginning
tonight, and continuing until the front passes through Wednesday.
The best potential for dense fog will generally come overnight
into the early morning, with at least some modest improvement in
the afternoons. The cold front will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Moderate
offshore winds near 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots will be
possible after the front Wednesday, with calmer conditions
prevailing in the late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 60 75 50 / 0 20 50 80
Houston (IAH) 75 60 77 57 / 0 10 30 80
Galveston (GLS) 68 61 70 59 / 0 10 20 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from this evening through
late tonight for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from this evening through
Tuesday morning for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Wood
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

[Cromagnum]

February gardens are always a dice roll. No harm in getting soil ready and supplies gathered though.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I don’t do veggie and fruit gardens until mid-late March

[Stratton20]

yeah i would probably hold on actual planting for another month or so, there are definitely signs that winter will be coming back around mid month and beyond

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

Morning low clouds/fog have cleared for the most part with mostly
VFR conditions expected the rest of this afternoon with generally
moderate S/SE winds (10-15kts) and stronger gusts (20-25kts). The
winds and gusts should weaken this evening, but remain strong en-
ough just above the surface to have impacts on fog development as
we head into the overnight/early morning hours. However, the lone
exception could be GLS which may still have impacts from sea fog.
41

&&

[DoctorMu]

February gardens are always a dice roll. No harm in getting soil ready and supplies gathered though.

I mean, there's going to be a freeze later this week in CLL.

Besides nothing grows worth a damn in our gray clay soil unless injected by multiple mega treatments of high nitrogen fertilizer. Except weeds and sometimes a boxwood or a tree.

[Cromagnum]

Quite windy today already.

[Cpv17]

So far the mesoscale models show most of the rain north of SETX for tomorrow and Wednesday. They don’t really show much around here.

[Thundersleet]

Katdaddy, do you have a clue about when & where everyone on this weather forum can another get together?

[redneckweather]

Yep, I won't plant till March but time to get the soil turned over. Man, I was out and about yesterday and Spring is everywhere. The yellow jasmine on my back fence is everywhere, weeds galore, plum trees in full bloom etc etc. Maybe a light freeze this weekend but that won't hurt anything. Love seeing life coming back to the landscape.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023


With the strong WAA/onshore winds in place across SE TX, look for
a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings this afternoon with spotty showers
possible. Lower CIGS/VIS are expected this evening with decreased
winds ahead of the front. But, models are continuing with a slow-
er FROPA trend and have adjusted the timing a bit. Will keep VCTS
in for frontal passage, which could extend into late Weds morning
or early afternoon for the southern terminals. 41

&&

[jasons2k]

Yep, I won't plant till March but time to get the soil turned over. Man, I was out and about yesterday and Spring is everywhere. The yellow jasmine on my back fence is everywhere, weeds galore, plum trees in full bloom etc etc. Maybe a light freeze this weekend but that won't hurt anything. Love seeing life coming back to the landscape.

Amen to that. It’s my favorite time of the year. Nothing cheers you up more than a warm spring day, hearing the birds, and seeing everything bloom and come back to life.

[Stratton20]

I really feel bad for anyones plants that have begun to spring, because based on what im seeing in the ensembles and now the operational runs, their is a good chance that we might have a couple of freezes left in store, at least light ones