February 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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For entertainment purposes only
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tireman4
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VIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Conditions should gradually improve this afternoon with VFR
conditions, mainly across all inland terminals. Skies will become
mostly sunny and winds will weaken through the next few hours from
west to southeast. Reduced visibility due to fog are expected to
continue near/at GLS this afternoon. Southerly light winds will
prevail tonight into Thursday, increasing the potential for low
visibility and ceilings. Therefore, MVFR to LIFR conditions are
expected to return overnight through the end of the TAF period.

JM
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DoctorMu
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The Thursday front is progged to reach between Hearne and College Station. Brisk and cooler behind the front, but the SE ridge may cause it to hit the wall just north of Bryan. We'll see.

CMC and GFS on agreement of an early March FROPA. Fingers crossed.
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DoctorMu
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tireman4 wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:51 am For entertainment purposes only
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Stratton20
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though to be fair, the global models are all getting interesting around the 2nd of march timeframe, GFS cold core upper level low, CMC similar but with a mega arctic blast, Euro somewhere in the middle, fun times ahead
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:50 pm though to be fair, the global models are all getting interesting around the 2nd of march timeframe, GFS cold core upper level low, CMC similar but with a mega arctic blast, Euro somewhere in the middle, fun times ahead
I noticed and posted that yesterday. Early March cold front - how cold and for how long? We'll see.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 222133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
333 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

A line of scattered showers will continue to move east, off of
the region this afternoon. This is in response to a mid to upper-
level shortwave and weak sfc boundary developing ahead of a weak
cold front, currently extending over north-central TX. Southerly
winds should gradually weaken this afternoon and evening as
pressure gradient relaxes. Clouds will scatter out by early this
evening; however, persistent warm and humid southerly winds and
increasing theta-e advection will bring low clouds and the
potential for fog and sea fog tonight into Thursday morning. Given
abundant moisture at low-levels, a few spotty showers and/or
light drizzle will be possible along the coast through early
morning.

The aforementioned cold front will slowly move southeastward
across our northwestern counties tonight/early Thursday, before
stalling and/or retreating back northwest during the day. This
will keep most of the region under a southerly flow regime. The
exception will be across our far northwestern counties, which will
be positioned just north of the cold front, resulting in north to
northeasterly winds and mild conditions. It will be mostly cloudy
with highs from the upper 70s to low 80s. The front will finally
move eastward Thursday night into Friday, resulting in some
showers north of the I-10 corridor at night. Elsewhere, warm and
humid southerly flow will continue to bring the potential for fog,
mainly along the coastal areas and Gulf waters through Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

The weak frontal boundary looming over the northern fringes of
our CWA should begin to lift north Friday morning. PWs near
1.4-1.6 inches, PVA overhead and forcing along the boundary should
help bring isolated showers to this portion of the region.
However, a stout cap still looks to remain in place overhead, so
much of the convective development during the day should be
suppressed. With the front keeping north, onshore flow and WAA
should persist through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
A mid level, 595 dam ridge over the Bahamas will also drift
westward during the week, with its influence over the weather
pattern gradually strengthening. 850mb temperatures around 14-17C
should bring highs in the 70s to lower 80s on Friday, then upper
70s to mid 80s over the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the 60s
over this same time frame.

Another upper level trough and associated surface low should spin
up over the Central Plains Sunday evening, draping another front
across the region late Sunday night into Monday morning as the
trough fills to the northeast. This front should bring showers and
thunderstorms as it passes across the region, though the
strongest of these storms look to keep well north of our area.
Global models show ample shear available in this environment,
though instability looks to be lacking. This boundary will also
bring slightly cooler and drier weather in its wake, with highs
for Monday progged in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to 50s.
Onshore flow and WAA looks to return rather quickly behind this
front as temperatures Tuesday afternoon creep towards the mid 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Conditions should gradually improve this afternoon with VFR
conditions, mainly across all inland terminals. Skies will become
mostly sunny and winds will weaken through the next few hours from
west to southeast. Reduced visibility due to fog are expected to
continue near/at GLS this afternoon. Southerly light winds will
prevail tonight into Thursday, increasing the potential for low
visibility and ceilings. Therefore, MVFR to LIFR conditions are
expected to return overnight through the end of the TAF period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Winds have decreased this afternoon, and should become light to
moderate this evening. Elevated seas near 7 to 9 feet will be slow
to diminish, warranting the need for small craft advisories across
the Gulf of Mexico for tonight. There will also be a high risk of
rip currents across all Gulf facing beaches during this time frame
as well. Patchy sea fog is already looming nearshore this afternoon,
and should fill in across all waters overnight into the early
morning hours of Thursday. The threat of sea fog should continue
nightly all the way through Sunday morning. Increasing winds and
seas can be expected Sunday night into next week ahead of our next
frontal boundary.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 60 79 65 78 / 0 10 20 20
Houston (IAH) 65 80 67 80 / 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 65 74 64 70 / 20 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Thursday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:48 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:55 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:52 am Summer will be March to November this year. Book it.
No, it won't. Don't be dramatic.

Now, I hate anything over 70 so yeah, March to November sucks for me, but I see nothing suggesting a warm fall with a weak-moderate Nino, and I don't see a scorcher of a Spring on the horizon. Warm, yeah, but 80s in February don't mean an early Summer, and 30s/40s in October don't mean an early Winter. They are events to be treated separately from the season.
Its already in the 80s and humid this week which is gross. (Yes I need to move, but it's not gonna be in the cards for awhile).
Of course, it is gross. That still has no bearing on what Spring will bring. By mid next week, and through week 2 of March, it looks a bit below normal. Yes, the background state is still one of a weak Nina, but there's nothing that suggests a very dry Spring yet.
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I couldn’t sleep worth a crap last night, but in the few hours I got, I had a crazy dream that it actually snowed here in March. One could only wish!
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jasons2k
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I spent a good part of the day and this evening outside in shorts. The run outside was great. Not too hot, not too cold. Can’t get understand why anyone would complain about this weather. So much better than frigid cold, and better than sweltering heat.

I saw lots of folks outside today at the park and at the courts. They were empty a few weeks ago. Total opposite today without the freezing weather. Now, there are people out and life is vibrant. The trees and plants are blooming! Happy Spring to everyone out and about and enjoying this weather! I sure am and happy it’s spring!!!
Stratton20
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jasons2k because its humid outside, waking up to upper 60’s and lows 70’s for morning lows is just flat out miserable
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jasons2k
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 11:40 pm jasons2k because its humid outside, waking up to upper 60’s and lows 70’s for morning lows is just flat out miserable
Well the thing about opinions is anyone is allowed to have one. I love this weather, but I would like to see more rain.

You and a lot of folks enjoy cold weather. I’m more like WxMan57 aka The Heat Miser. But no matter what we want or think, we can’t control the weather.
Stratton20
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jasons2k im fine with the heat, just not with the humidity, it could be 100 outside and low humidity and it would be fine, i wasn’t attacking you’re opinion, i just hate the humidity lol
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231153
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
553 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 239 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

Overcast skies will persist through much of the short term as moist
southerly flow continues across the region. Patchy fog this morning
will dissipate by the mid-morning hours today for all areas but the
barrier islands, which will see period of fog through the day as sea
fog washes up onto the land. But the foggy conditions will return
tonight and tomorrow night for much of the region. High temperatures
this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. There will be a
weak boundary sliding down into the region this afternoon/evening
and stalling somewhere between B-CS area and the Houston Metro - but
exactly where it does will play a huge roll in the temperatures
tonight and Friday. Areas behind the front (most likely Washington,
Burleson, Brazos, Grimes, Madison, and Houston counties) will get
lows into the upper 50s to low 60s tonight, highs in the upper 60s
to low 70s on Friday, and lows in the mid to upper 50s Friday night.
Meanwhile areas ahead of the front will get lows tonight and
tomorrow night in mid to upper 60s and afternoon highs on Friday mid
to upper 70s. There will also be a slight change of light rain
showers tonight along the coast, and then also a chance of showers
with the occasional rumble of thunder for areas north of Conroe on
Friday as that boundary remains stalled out across the area.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

A strong mid/upper ridge centered roughly over Florida accompanied
by onshore flow at the surface will be driving our weather on
Saturday. Thus, we continue to expect very warm temperatures and
humid conditions. Highs are expected to generally be in the
low/mid 80s. Our far northern counties are expected to be a little
cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s. The aforementioned onshore
flow will help keep the coast cooler with highs in the low/mid 70s
at the beaches. Ridging aloft is expected to gradually breakdown
on Sunday as a vigorous upper trough in the Desert Southwest
approaches from the west. Conditions on Sunday are expected to be
about as warm and humid as Saturday. But we do introduce some
slight PoPs over our Brazos Valley counties as lowering heights
and cooling temps aloft allow for a little more instability.

By Monday, the aforementioned trough and associated surface low
will eject east-northeast into the central plains. An associated
trailing cold front is expected to push through the region on
Monday morning. Though most of the large scale ascent will remain
north of our region, modest PVA in a PWAT rich environment
coupled with enhanced surface convergence associated with the
frontal boundary should be enough to bring some shower and
thunderstorm activity to the region beginning Sunday night into
Monday morning. At this time, the highest PoPs are expected
during the morning hours on Monday. We have raised PoPs somewhat
in this update. PoPs range from 30-40 percent in our northern
counties to 20-30 percent in the Houston metro area and 10-20
percent near the coast. Much lower dew points cooler temperatures
are expected in the front`s wake. By Monday afternoon, dew points
are expected to fall into the 30s and 40s (50s near the coast)
with temperatures generally in the 70s. These drier conditions
coupled with clearer skies should allow temperatures to drop into
the upper 40s to mid 50s Monday night. Onshore flow is expected to
return Tuesday and Wednesday. The resulting WAA and increasing
dew points are expected to bring the return of warm and humid
conditions.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

LIFR CIGs around 300ft and patchy fog will continue for HOU and
GLs through the early morning hours with the rest of the region
seeing IFR to MVFR conditions with CIGs between 700 and 1200ft.
Generally MVFR conditions will prevail through the early afternoon
with CIGs around 1500ft, then a few hours of VFR conditions are
possible during the late afternoon into the evening hours.
Conditions will deteriorate again tonight first along the coast
and then spreading inland through the night with patchy fog and
LIFR to IFR CIGs between 400 and 700ft developing. Winds today
will remain southerly for the terminals south of CXO, but a weak
boundary will slide into the northern third of the area bringing a
northerly to northeasterly wind. All winds speeds, no matter the
direction, will remain between 6 and 10kts.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

Winds have decreased considerably over the last 24 hours. However,
seas have been slow to respond, especially for areas more than 20
NM offshore. Seas of 7 to 9 feet are expected to occur in the
20-60 NM offshore space until about 1500 UTC this morning. Light
to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through Sunday
resulting in periods of sea fog. The best chance of fog will be
during the morning, evening, and overnight hours. Sea surface
temperatures will be increasing over the next few days. Therefore,
the sea fog risk could decrease somewhat going into the weekend.
By late Sunday into early Monday, onshore winds are expected to
increase ahead of the next cold front. Caution flags may be needed
late Sunday into early Monday. Light to moderate offshore flow is
expected behind the front. However, this will be short lived with
onshore flow returning by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 60 71 59 / 10 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 81 67 79 66 / 0 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 64 69 62 / 0 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ436>439.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
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jasons2k
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:04 am jasons2k im fine with the heat, just not with the humidity, it could be 100 outside and low humidity and it would be fine, i wasn’t attacking you’re opinion, i just hate the humidity lol
It's all good.

I hope we don't get one last freeze in March because everything here is blooming now.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:04 am jasons2k im fine with the heat, just not with the humidity, it could be 100 outside and low humidity and it would be fine, i wasn’t attacking you’re opinion, i just hate the humidity lol
Gotta be in agreement there.

The FROPA has gone through Waco to Hearne. We have a windshift, but the DP hasn't dropped yet. It's in the 40s in Waco.

Any DP > low 60s is not good.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:04 am jasons2k im fine with the heat, just not with the humidity, it could be 100 outside and low humidity and it would be fine, i wasn’t attacking you’re opinion, i just hate the humidity lol
Maybe Jason is okay with sweating lol
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MontgomeryCoWx
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As someone who is either 0 mph or 100 mph and nothing in between, I loathe heat. Y’all know this though.

I had a heat stroke as a teenager playing sports and it has completely ruined 6-7 months out of every year since then.

I know Jason and I joke because we are 180 of each other, but he will understand this. Those of us who competitively run or bike or whatever are always looking to compete against ourselves, always get better. Part of the reason I loathe heat (besides just walking outside and sweating when it’s over 75) is I KNOW I’m not going to set any personal bests, and I can’t stand that.

For instance, my average 5 mile run in 40-50 degree weather is roughly 31-33 minutes. This week I tried to run twice in the mornings when it was 70-72 degrees and my run was 39 and 40 minutes. I simply can’t breathe and regulate my temperature when it gets warm out. That is what heat and humidity do to me, and it’s why I go inside to train once we hit Spring.
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Iceresistance
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Sunday is looking really scary for me. :shock:
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Iceresistance wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:04 pm Sunday is looking really scary for me. :shock:
I need a good OL fashioned Oklahoma chase with a bottle of Blantons at my side. No, I would not be driving, just a passenger observing.

It’s been too long. :)
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