March 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
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Already saw some June bugs tonight. Crazy.
Cromagnum
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jasons2k wrote: Sat Mar 11, 2023 10:27 pm Already saw some June bugs tonight. Crazy.
Been seeing them for a few weeks now here.
Stratton20
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Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
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had one land on my head tonight, i think i just about went nuts, i cant stand those june bugs haha
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
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SOI index starting to tank and drop, today's Daily value is -11.9
JuneEl
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Thanks for the info on water reservoirs in the state. Now I know the the SOI determines whether we are in a El Niño or La Niña year. Would you please explain the differences, for a relative weather newbie.
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don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
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Severe weather may be on the menu later this week.With decent shear and no cap in place.
Screenshot 2023-03-13 at 08-50-41 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave
trough will eject over the southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday. At
least upper 50s to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints should return
northward ahead of this upper trough across parts of central/east
TX/OK into the ArkLaTex vicinity. As mid-level temperatures cool and
daytime heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast to
develop by Thursday afternoon along and ahead of a surface dryline.

Ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should encourage robust
convective development along much of the length of the dryline late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong deep-layer shear will easily
support organized convection, including the potential for supercells
with a large hail and damaging wind threat. Additional severe
convection may develop Thursday night across portions of east TX
into the ArkLaTex in a strengthening low-level warm advection
regime. Even though low-level moisture should remain somewhat
limited, enough low-level shear should be present to support some
threat for a few tornadoes as well. Confidence in scattered severe
convection occurring has increased enough to introduce a 15% severe
area for Thursday.
Attachments
day48prob.gif
Cromagnum
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Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
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I like that first graphic. Not the 2nd one so much. Will have to keep an eye on trends.
Iceresistance
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Location: Tecumseh, OK
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don wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:15 am Severe weather may be on the menu later this week.With decent shear and no cap in place.

Screenshot 2023-03-13 at 08-50-41 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave
trough will eject over the southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday. At
least upper 50s to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints should return
northward ahead of this upper trough across parts of central/east
TX/OK into the ArkLaTex vicinity. As mid-level temperatures cool and
daytime heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast to
develop by Thursday afternoon along and ahead of a surface dryline.

Ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should encourage robust
convective development along much of the length of the dryline late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong deep-layer shear will easily
support organized convection, including the potential for supercells
with a large hail and damaging wind threat. Additional severe
convection may develop Thursday night across portions of east TX
into the ArkLaTex in a strengthening low-level warm advection
regime. Even though low-level moisture should remain somewhat
limited, enough low-level shear should be present to support some
threat for a few tornadoes as well. Confidence in scattered severe
convection occurring has increased enough to introduce a 15% severe
area for Thursday.
Yep, I'm in the severe weather potential for Thursday.
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jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
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Weather app shows 36 on Monday morning.

But awhile back it had 37 for this past weekend too. Not even close.
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
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Can we bottle up the weather we have had the last two days? It doesn't get a lot better.
spadilly
Posts: 86
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 3:24 pm
Location: SW side
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Day 3 outlook:
Attachments
day3otlk_0730.gif
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don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
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Looks like a potent MCS is going to move through on Thursday.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_69.png
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes should occur Thursday across
parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Upper troughing will progress eastward across the central CONUS on
Thursday. The northern portion of this upper trough should evolve
into a closed upper low over the northern Plains and adjacent parts
of central Canada through the period. Farther south, a lead
low-amplitude shortwave trough should quickly eject northeastward
through the day from the southern Plains into the MS Valley and
Midwest. Behind this lead wave, another shortwave trough with
associated strong mid/upper-level west-southwesterly jet is forecast
to overspread parts of TX/OK by late Thursday afternoon. There are
still notable differences in deterministic guidance regarding the
amplitude and location of this second shortwave trough by late
Thursday afternoon. The primary surface low, initially near the
KS/OK border, should develop northeastward towards the Midwest/Great
Lakes by Thursday evening in tandem with the lead shortwave trough.
An attendant cold front will sweep quickly southeastward over the
central/southern Plains and ArkLaTex region. A dryline should mix
eastward across central TX through Thursday afternoon.

There are some indications in guidance that convection may initiate
fairly early in the day over the open warm sector of east TX and
vicinity. This activity may be tied to persistent low-level warm
advection, and the glancing influence of the lead shortwave trough.
Gradually increasing low-level moisture and filtered diurnal heating
should support the development of at least weak instability across
these areas. With strong deep-layer shear expected, any
thunderstorms that be sustained could pose some severe threat.
Additional isolated convection will probably develop along the
dryline by late Thursday afternoon across parts of north/central TX
as the second shortwave trough approaches the southern Plains. This
activity may initially be supercellular with a threat for large hail
given steep mid-level lapse rates and potentially moderate
instability. With time, convection will likely grow upscale into an
MCS along the quickly advancing cold front. This MCS should have a
greater wind threat as it moves generally east-southeastward
Thursday evening/overnight across central/east TX, the ArkLaTex, and
eventually lower MS Valley. A rather strong low-level jet should
also be present over east TX into AR/LA Thursday evening. With ample
low-level shear forecast, any supercells that can form and remain
ahead of the cold front/MCS should pose a tornado threat.
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MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
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Headed to Des Moines for the first two rounds of the tourney.

Snow and teens/20s! Love it.
Team #NeverSummer
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
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Little rogue rain cell just missed me south. Angleton and Danbury might have cashed in.
brazoriatx
Posts: 328
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 4:47 pm Little rogue rain cell just missed me south. Angleton and Danbury might have cashed in.
We got about 3 mins of light sprinkles here in angleton. Not worth writing home about
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DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
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don wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:41 pm Looks like a potent MCS is going to move through on Thursday.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_69.png
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes should occur Thursday across
parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Upper troughing will progress eastward across the central CONUS on
Thursday. The northern portion of this upper trough should evolve
into a closed upper low over the northern Plains and adjacent parts
of central Canada through the period. Farther south, a lead
low-amplitude shortwave trough should quickly eject northeastward
through the day from the southern Plains into the MS Valley and
Midwest. Behind this lead wave, another shortwave trough with
associated strong mid/upper-level west-southwesterly jet is forecast
to overspread parts of TX/OK by late Thursday afternoon. There are
still notable differences in deterministic guidance regarding the
amplitude and location of this second shortwave trough by late
Thursday afternoon. The primary surface low, initially near the
KS/OK border, should develop northeastward towards the Midwest/Great
Lakes by Thursday evening in tandem with the lead shortwave trough.
An attendant cold front will sweep quickly southeastward over the
central/southern Plains and ArkLaTex region. A dryline should mix
eastward across central TX through Thursday afternoon.

There are some indications in guidance that convection may initiate
fairly early in the day over the open warm sector of east TX and
vicinity. This activity may be tied to persistent low-level warm
advection, and the glancing influence of the lead shortwave trough.
Gradually increasing low-level moisture and filtered diurnal heating
should support the development of at least weak instability across
these areas. With strong deep-layer shear expected, any
thunderstorms that be sustained could pose some severe threat.
Additional isolated convection will probably develop along the
dryline by late Thursday afternoon across parts of north/central TX
as the second shortwave trough approaches the southern Plains. This
activity may initially be supercellular with a threat for large hail
given steep mid-level lapse rates and potentially moderate
instability. With time, convection will likely grow upscale into an
MCS along the quickly advancing cold front. This MCS should have a
greater wind threat as it moves generally east-southeastward
Thursday evening/overnight across central/east TX, the ArkLaTex, and
eventually lower MS Valley. A rather strong low-level jet should
also be present over east TX into AR/LA Thursday evening. With ample
low-level shear forecast, any supercells that can form and remain
ahead of the cold front/MCS should pose a tornado threat.
Great - we'll be driving through that mess.
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DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 4:30 pm Headed to Des Moines for the first two rounds of the tourney.

Snow and teens/20s! Love it.
Wish I were there. Driving to Greensboro area and beyond, but the NCAAT committee pulled a switcheroo sending Duke to Orland.

A&M was seeded #7 by spite to play t.u. I think the Aggies can pull the upset, but need to win their first game against Penn State first.
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DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Here's an image of the near Mercury and Venus conjunction:
IMG_5650.jpeg
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MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:43 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 4:30 pm Headed to Des Moines for the first two rounds of the tourney.

Snow and teens/20s! Love it.
Wish I were there. Driving to Greensboro area and beyond, but the NCAAT committee pulled a switcheroo sending Duke to Orland.

A&M was seeded #7 by spite to play t.u. I think the Aggies can pull the upset, but need to win their first game against Penn State first.

Are you a Duke fan too?
Team #NeverSummer
spadilly
Posts: 86
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 3:24 pm
Location: SW side
Contact:

Day 2 maps from the SPC:
Attachments
day2otlk_0600.gif
day2probotlk_0600_hail.gif
day2probotlk_0600_wind.gif
day2probotlk_0600_torn.gif
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