April 2023
Feast or famine at the moment. I hope the central counties don’t get stuck in no man’s land when the coastal trough overtakes the action.
Cant be ruled out that someone may get dry slotted between the frontal boundary and coastal trough.We'll see this evening...
Light rain all night totalling about 0.9 inches. Good for the grass, but amazing that all the precip is on the cold side of the front. Two months ago this would have been a major winter event. A foot of ice and snow.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Nam 3k does has some pockets of heavy rain for the coast, but mainly keeps the fire hose concentrated over Northern counties
- Attachments
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Looks like an impulse is riding 59 and is about to clip the northwest portions of the metro in the next hour or so.3km NAM totals below.Important to not take exact rainfall amounts and locations verbatim.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 061129
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
The remnants of yesturday`s cold front now loom over the Gulf of
Mexico this morning as a coastal trough. The 850mb front remains
locked in over the northern third of our CWA with widespread showers
and thunderstorms developing in and around this boundary. Models
show the 850mb front drifting north late this morning, which should
in turn displace the heaviest rainfall to areas north of the US-59
corridor. PWs near 1.5-1.9" and ample shortwave energy aloft will
still be enough to keep the rest of SE Texas wet and gloomy
throughout the day. Heading into the evening, the deepest PWs aim
pool near the coast as another burst of SW energy kicks out from a
mid/upper level trough over the Four Corners/Baja California.
Forecast soundings show deep moisture and skinny CAPE profiles
during the overnight hours; both conducive for heavy rainfall.
The heaviest rainfall should be focused in areas south of I-10
during this time frame. All of SE Texas remains under a slight
(level 2/4) risk of excessive rainfall for today.
Friday will see these wet conditions begin to decline as drier air
filters into the region. PWs drop to 1.3-1.6" during the day while
aforementioned coastal trough gradually retreats deeper into the
Gulf of Mexico. Shortwave energy should remain plentiful, enough to
bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms during the day.
These showers and storms should taper off overnight into Saturday as
shortwave energy dwindles. With the heavy rainfall signal declining,
WPC has portions of SE Texas under a marginal (level 1/4) risk of
excessive rainfall for Friday. An additional 2-4" of rainfall is
expected over these next two days. Dry soil conditions should be
able to absorb the brunt of this precipitation, though locally heavy
rainfall could lead to minor flooding in urban and low lying areas.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Expecting rain from this storm system to come to an end Saturday as
the southwest flow aloft is replaced with a more zonal flow. This
will allow the stalled front to move farther offshore into the open
Gulf of Mexico. In its wake, drier air moves into the area, and we
will start the weekend with decreasing clouds and even a little bit
of sun as the day progresses on Saturday. High temperatures in an
upper 60s to lower 70s range will be in the forecast, followed by
lows on Saturday night in the 50s. Partly cloudy skies will close
out the weekend on Sunday with highs in the 70s. A mid Atlantic area
surface high looks to be ridging back into the Texas for much of
next week. We will have dry weather in our forecast for the Monday
through Thursday time period with mostly clear skies for the nights
and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies during the days. We`ll need
to keep an eye on the possibility of a mid/upper level low
organizing and eventually cutting off in the general area between
Texas and Florida, as this feature could mess with our cloud cover
forecast. Through much of the week, nights will be on the cool side
(mostly 50s) and days will be gradually warming up (70s on Monday
heading toward the mid 80s by Thursday).
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Two things of high confidence in these TAFs - one, the weather for
the next 30 hours (and beyond) will be a mess; and two, multiple
amendments seem nearly certain. In the interest of highlighting
the highest impact times, have limited VCTS/TSRA to short 4ish
hour windows were thunder seems most likely. But thunder will be
possible basically anytime in the early part of the period from
IAH northward, and basically anytime in the back half of the
period from IAH coastward. Expect times of highest impact to shift
around based on how the threats specifically evolve. Beyond rain
and thunder, low MVFR and IFR CIGs should prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds, elevated seas and
periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected for the
remainder of the week. A series of upper level disturbances passing
over a remnant cold front is the cause of these repeated rounds of
rain. Will start the forecast some some caution and advisory flags
in the area, and some of these will likely need to be extended
through the end of the week. A tightened pressure gradient partly
associated with coastal trough development will be the culprit
behind the prolonged higher winds. Dry weather returns on Saturday
and persists through Monday night with light to occasionally
moderate northeast winds becoming easterly.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 52 58 52 / 90 90 80 40
Houston (IAH) 68 58 64 56 / 70 90 80 50
Galveston (GLS) 75 64 70 62 / 60 80 80 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ330-335-350-355-375.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...42
FXUS64 KHGX 061129
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
The remnants of yesturday`s cold front now loom over the Gulf of
Mexico this morning as a coastal trough. The 850mb front remains
locked in over the northern third of our CWA with widespread showers
and thunderstorms developing in and around this boundary. Models
show the 850mb front drifting north late this morning, which should
in turn displace the heaviest rainfall to areas north of the US-59
corridor. PWs near 1.5-1.9" and ample shortwave energy aloft will
still be enough to keep the rest of SE Texas wet and gloomy
throughout the day. Heading into the evening, the deepest PWs aim
pool near the coast as another burst of SW energy kicks out from a
mid/upper level trough over the Four Corners/Baja California.
Forecast soundings show deep moisture and skinny CAPE profiles
during the overnight hours; both conducive for heavy rainfall.
The heaviest rainfall should be focused in areas south of I-10
during this time frame. All of SE Texas remains under a slight
(level 2/4) risk of excessive rainfall for today.
Friday will see these wet conditions begin to decline as drier air
filters into the region. PWs drop to 1.3-1.6" during the day while
aforementioned coastal trough gradually retreats deeper into the
Gulf of Mexico. Shortwave energy should remain plentiful, enough to
bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms during the day.
These showers and storms should taper off overnight into Saturday as
shortwave energy dwindles. With the heavy rainfall signal declining,
WPC has portions of SE Texas under a marginal (level 1/4) risk of
excessive rainfall for Friday. An additional 2-4" of rainfall is
expected over these next two days. Dry soil conditions should be
able to absorb the brunt of this precipitation, though locally heavy
rainfall could lead to minor flooding in urban and low lying areas.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Expecting rain from this storm system to come to an end Saturday as
the southwest flow aloft is replaced with a more zonal flow. This
will allow the stalled front to move farther offshore into the open
Gulf of Mexico. In its wake, drier air moves into the area, and we
will start the weekend with decreasing clouds and even a little bit
of sun as the day progresses on Saturday. High temperatures in an
upper 60s to lower 70s range will be in the forecast, followed by
lows on Saturday night in the 50s. Partly cloudy skies will close
out the weekend on Sunday with highs in the 70s. A mid Atlantic area
surface high looks to be ridging back into the Texas for much of
next week. We will have dry weather in our forecast for the Monday
through Thursday time period with mostly clear skies for the nights
and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies during the days. We`ll need
to keep an eye on the possibility of a mid/upper level low
organizing and eventually cutting off in the general area between
Texas and Florida, as this feature could mess with our cloud cover
forecast. Through much of the week, nights will be on the cool side
(mostly 50s) and days will be gradually warming up (70s on Monday
heading toward the mid 80s by Thursday).
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Two things of high confidence in these TAFs - one, the weather for
the next 30 hours (and beyond) will be a mess; and two, multiple
amendments seem nearly certain. In the interest of highlighting
the highest impact times, have limited VCTS/TSRA to short 4ish
hour windows were thunder seems most likely. But thunder will be
possible basically anytime in the early part of the period from
IAH northward, and basically anytime in the back half of the
period from IAH coastward. Expect times of highest impact to shift
around based on how the threats specifically evolve. Beyond rain
and thunder, low MVFR and IFR CIGs should prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds, elevated seas and
periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected for the
remainder of the week. A series of upper level disturbances passing
over a remnant cold front is the cause of these repeated rounds of
rain. Will start the forecast some some caution and advisory flags
in the area, and some of these will likely need to be extended
through the end of the week. A tightened pressure gradient partly
associated with coastal trough development will be the culprit
behind the prolonged higher winds. Dry weather returns on Saturday
and persists through Monday night with light to occasionally
moderate northeast winds becoming easterly.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 52 58 52 / 90 90 80 40
Houston (IAH) 68 58 64 56 / 70 90 80 50
Galveston (GLS) 75 64 70 62 / 60 80 80 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ330-335-350-355-375.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...42
Various solutions showing up in the NAM models.It's gonna be interesting to see how things play out this evening.
“Where’s that 6 inches you promised me last night, David?” 
Oh Lord...LOL
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Also it appears that the coastal low that develops may not make it that far east in the GOM before retrograding back west due to a blocking high to its North, might keep at least a chance for isolated/ scattered thunderstorms in the longer term even after this rain event ends
Very high chances yesterday and last night, but not much actually materialized. Just some light rain on and off.
Just west of Beaumont.
Just west of Beaumont.
Looks like storms in the gulf are intensifying while the blob inland is weakening.
And like a lot of folks I’m stuck in the middle, at least for now. Must be because I cleaned the gutters and french drains.
And like a lot of folks I’m stuck in the middle, at least for now. Must be because I cleaned the gutters and french drains.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
2
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Messy forecast will be continuing with this package, but it does
appear that the highest rain chances will remain over the north-
ern and the southern/coastal portions of the CWA this afternoon.
So, for the bulk of the terminals (CXO south to HOU) MVFR to IFR
ceilings will prevail until this evening...with perhaps the very
brief mention of VCSH or VCTS. Shower and thunderstorms activity
is expected to increase once again tonight and could persist in-
to tomorrow afternoon 41
&&
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023
Messy forecast will be continuing with this package, but it does
appear that the highest rain chances will remain over the north-
ern and the southern/coastal portions of the CWA this afternoon.
So, for the bulk of the terminals (CXO south to HOU) MVFR to IFR
ceilings will prevail until this evening...with perhaps the very
brief mention of VCSH or VCTS. Shower and thunderstorms activity
is expected to increase once again tonight and could persist in-
to tomorrow afternoon 41
&&
Two inches of rain and counting here in CLL.
I'd gladly send the rest around I-10 and south. There's enough moisture to easily plant new shrubs.
I'd gladly send the rest around I-10 and south. There's enough moisture to easily plant new shrubs.
Showers are starting to develop in the central and coastal counties.
Should start to take off finally.
We're about to get slammed again. I should have gone home hours ago, gotten a walk/run in and then gone back to work on my home computer.
2.4 inches and counting.
2.4 inches and counting.
Absolute crickets down here.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Magnolia house is up to 1.5 inches.
Weimar place has 2 and counting.
Montana has 6 inches of snow in the last week. LOL
On a side note We will officially be out of MoCo in June. I’ll be coming live from Colorado County during the school year or Gallatin County during most of the Summer.
Weimar place has 2 and counting.
Montana has 6 inches of snow in the last week. LOL
On a side note We will officially be out of MoCo in June. I’ll be coming live from Colorado County during the school year or Gallatin County during most of the Summer.
Team #NeverSummer
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brazoriatx
- Posts: 329
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
- Contact:
Seems like the storms that fired near the coast went poof