May 2023

[Stratton20]

Holy jeez… The CMC has a max bullseye of 32.4 inches in deep south texas,
no way that verifies, but still..
I know its the CMC but it has had its moments, did pretty well with Imelda and the amount of rain it dumped

[jasons2k]

NWS still hasn’t budged.
20% overnight and tomorrow. 20-30% next week as well.

Weather app still monsoon with 70% tonight, 40% tomorrow, 70% Saturday, 70% Sunday, and 40/50/60% on various days for the rest of the 10-day.

The NWS is significantly drier than whatever model blend Apple is using.

[Cpv17]

NWS still hasn’t budged.
20% overnight and tomorrow. 20-30% next week as well.

Weather app still monsoon with 70% tonight, 40% tomorrow, 70% Saturday, 70% Sunday, and 40/50/60% on various days for the rest of the 10-day.

The NWS is significantly drier than whatever model blend Apple is using.

The CPC forecast looks a good bit wetter than what the NWS shows.

The NWS is probably waiting on the GFS to hop onboard before they increase chances. Not enough confidence yet.

[Cpv17]

The 12z EPS has the strongest signal yet for southeast TX. It’s showing 4”- 5.5” across the area over the next two weeks. That’s a strong signal for an ensemble.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 cant remember the last time ive seen that strong of a signal and amount of rain on an ensemble

[Ptarmigan]

Holy jeez… The CMC has a max bullseye of 32.4 inches in deep south texas,
no way that verifies, but still..
I know its the CMC but it has had its moments, did pretty well with Imelda and the amount of rain it dumped

That is without a tropical system on top of it. I wonder how CMC forecasted that amount.

There was the May 2016 flood around Brenham that dumped over 20 inches of rain.
https://www.khou.com/article/news/local ... -250844170

[Ptarmigan]

This could get interesting. May has had many weather events in the past.

ENSO has gone nuts. Full bore El Nino.

Rain in CLL for summer? More mudslides It beats mega fires.

I know in the best, when El Nino is developing in the spring, it is usually wet.

[Ptarmigan]

QPF differences between the EURO,GFS,& CMC models through hour 240.The EURO and CMC are more aligned with each other with both showing a slow moving semi warm core low.(the CMC actually has 2 warm core lows forming) While the GFS shows a much drier solution with precip much further north. This May could be the busiest we've seen since May 2015.
Screenshot 2023-05-04 at 15-09-19 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-04 at 15-09-10 Models GDPS — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-04 at 15-09-28 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png

Most the heavy rain events in May 2015 were from mid to late May. The Memorial Day Flood comes to mind.

[DoctorMu]

Welp. Less rain. More humidity. Thanks.

NWS really back off a storm coming in from the west tonight...

Heat, too. Big early Suck Friday through Tuesday with highs near 90°F.

[jasons2k]

I’ll be surprised if we get anything overnight. It’s starting to dry up around here.

[Iceresistance]

I'm going to get a lot of storms starting this weekend, May 2nd started this severe weather sequence across the Plains.

[jasons2k]

Weather app and NWS still worlds apart.

I’m betting it stays dry this weekend, not the 70% of rain my phone tells me.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051116
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
616 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023

Temperatures through the short term will be toasty with high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows only
getting into the low to mid 70s. Dew points will be rising into the
low to mid 70s, so not only will it be warm, but also humid. Heat
indicies will be in the upper 90s to even low triple digits both
today and Friday. These conditions wouldn`t feel all to bad if we
were in August, but we are the start of the hot season so out bodies
have yet to adjust making these temperatures a bit more dangerous.
Won`t be needing any heat advisory products, but still make sure to
utilize good heat safety practices: stay hydrated, take breaks
if exerting yourself outside in the shade or in A/C.

Other than the heat, we can expect mostly cloudy skies during the
overnight to mid-morning periods becoming partly cloudy in the
afternoon. Another upperlevel shortwave will be moving across the
region this evening into tonight bringing another chance of showers
and thunderstorms. This disturbance may trigger some strong to
severe storms in the Hill Country during the afternoon hours, but
the storms will be weakening as they approach and move through SE
Texas. SPC does keep portions of Burleson, Austin, and Brazos
counties in a Marginal Risk for severe weather this evening, but
this will be very conditional on if the storms even survive making
their way into the region. Saturday may see some isolated showers or
thunderstorms develop east of I-45 as daytime heating helps trigger
some additional activity on the exiting disturbance.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023

Long term continues to be a broken record with not much of a
significant change to the general synoptic pattern. An upper level
ridge will be set up over SE CONUS with the corresponding 590 dam
mid level ridge centered about the Southern Gulf of Mexico. 850mb
temperatures are still progged to reach 17-20C, though flow at this
level looks to be more south/southeasterly. Moisture is still widely
abundant with dewpoints in the lower 70s and PWs ranging from 1.5-
1.8" at times. Shortwave energy still looks to ride the bottom of
the ridge, aiming to bring a few showers/storms during the day,
particularly in the afternoon with any sea-breeze driven activity.
Highs are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat
indicies generally in the 90s. Overnight lows should remain in the
70s across the region.

Monday should see the aforementioned ridge flatten as a shortwave
trough slides across Texas. Weakened influence from the ridge and a
gradual decrease in 850mb temperatures should lead to a slight
reduction in highs for next week. Emphasis on the "slight" wording,
since highs will largely remain in the mid to upper 80s inland and
lower 80s near the coast. The additional shortwave energy should
bring higher rain chances as well for next week. Uncertainty
increases beyond midweek as discrepancies between global models
rise. However, the general consensus depicts an upper level trough
digging in across the Great Basin/Four Corners with re-amplification
of the ridge over the SE CONUS/Mississippi River Valley. This aligns
with global ensemble runs, which keep warm weather around for SE
Texas.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023

MVFR CIGs of 1500 to 2500ft will prevail through the late morning
with occasional IFR conditions with CIGs down to 700ft possible
for the next few hours. Then VFR conditions will persist through
the evening with southerly flow at around 6 to 10kts. Ceilings
lower this evening back to 15000 to 2500ft that will linger
through Saturday morning. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms moving through CLL and UTS this evening, but these
storms will be weakening as they move eastwards and its more
likely they dissipate before reaching our area.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023

Light to moderate onshore flow with seas 5 feet or less are expected
through mid next week. Low rain chances are expected through the
weekend, increasing through next week. Caution flags may be needed
late next week as onshore flow strengthens.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 71 90 72 / 20 30 10 10
Houston (IAH) 91 73 91 73 / 20 20 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 75 83 74 / 20 20 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...03

[Cpv17]

Weather app and NWS still worlds apart.

I’m betting it stays dry this weekend, not the 70% of rain my phone tells me.

I don’t know why it would say 70% for this weekend. No guidance has anything even remotely close to justify that.

[Cromagnum]

I'm mowing this afternoon regardless. Any rain is welcome though.

[Stratton20]

Well the operational GFS has finally caved in from its drier solution for SE texas, has a couple of pretty big bullseyes across se texas

[don]

Yep the GFS is now showing the surface low the EURO and CMC have been showing.While not completely tropical it does appear to be a tropical low "like" setup or a "No Name" storm setup.Bears watch for next weekend...

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the afternoon. We`ll
have to keep an eye upstream for any shra/tstms that might develop
to our nw late in the day and early evening. A mix of forecast
guidance indicates some of that activity makes its way into the
Brazos Valley, and perhaps to I-10, during the mid evening hours.
Will keep an eye on trends and issue amendments as necessary.
Otherwise, look for a mix of 700-2000ft ceilings to fill in
overnight...lifting in the mid-late morning hours Saturday. 47

[Iceresistance]

POW Ponder has this
https://youtu.be/k6R4IV6rm5c

[Cpv17]

Dew point is currently 76° here.. nuts!!