May 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Iceresistance
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Today's daily SOI is even lower at -64.63!
Cpv17
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davidiowx wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 7:34 am That line hit a wall and is disappearing. Looks like outflow killed it
That’s pretty much what it was supposed to do. HRRR showed that yesterday.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Radar, IR satellite and lightning data indicate a gradual weakening
trend on the central Texas MCS early this morning as it works its
way into our northwest counties. Gusty winds, frequent lightning,
locally heavy rainfall and maybe some small hail look to be the
primary weather hazards with this system so far, and we will
continue to monitor for any strong/severe storms. If daytime heating
materializes today, enough instability and any residual boundaries
could lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms for parts of the
area. Whatever does develop should dissipate this evening, and the
rest of the night looks quiet. More isolated mainly afternoon
activity is possible on Thursday. Thursday night looks quiet.

High temperatures for both today and Thursday are expected to be in
a mid 80s to around 90 degree range. Tonight`s and Thursday night`s
low temperatures are expected to be in a mid 60s to around 70 degree
range with readings a little closer to the mid 70s at the coast both
nights.

42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Warm and dry conditions will prevail through the end of the
upcoming weekend as mid to upper level ridging dominates the
local weather pattern. A shift in the weather pattern is expected
next week as a mid to upper level trough moves across the
Southern Plains Monday and Tuesday. Onshore flow will persist for
both days and keep PWs between 1.5 to 1.7 and with sufficient
instability and a few vort max`s moving overhead from time to
time, we can expect a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Although the NBM favors a drier solution, went with a blended
solution instead and kept the PoPs a little higher for both days
(30% or less).

The highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s throughout the long
term period. The lows this weekend will be in the mid to upper
60s for much of Southeast TX, but some locations close to the
waters may have lows in the low 70s. Lows will warm up next week
and range between the upper 60s and low 70s.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Rapidly weakening storm complex is just west of most TAF sites, and
there is the possibility of some SHRA/TSRA with this activity before
it dissipates. Hard to pinpoint where any left over boundaries will
set up for afternoon SHRA/TSRA development, so have VCTS for this
possibility. All activity dissipates by early this evening, and think
most spots should be VFR overnight and on into tomorrow morning. We
might need to mention overnight fog possibility in future TAFs. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Light E-NE winds and seas of 3 feet or less expected through the
end of the work week. Onshore flow is to return this weekend and
continue through the end of the forecast period. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be possible today and some storms may
produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. Drier
conditions are expected Thursday into the end of the weekend as
mid to upper level ridging dominates the weather pattern. Chance
of showers and thunderstorms could return next week as the ridge
weakens and a few shortwaves move overhead.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 66 87 66 / 40 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 89 69 88 69 / 30 20 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 75 85 75 / 20 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42
MARINE...24
davidiowx
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 7:44 am
davidiowx wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 7:34 am That line hit a wall and is disappearing. Looks like outflow killed it
That’s pretty much what it was supposed to do. HRRR showed that yesterday.
Sure did. It’s awesome how accurate it is, for the most part.
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DoctorMu
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davidiowx wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 7:34 am That line hit a wall and is disappearing. Looks like outflow killed it
Only about 0.25 inches here in CLL early this morning. At least it's cloudy again.

Northerly flow through Saturday. 8-)
Cpv17
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The CPC continues to say there will be above normal rain chances but the globals don’t reflect it and neither do the ensemble for the most part. So I wouldn’t put much stock in that CPC forecast.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 you have to look at the 500 mb height pattern setup and its definitely favorable for a southern storm track with a ridge expanding in the northern US which forces systems to move eastbound across the desert sw into texas, thats what the CPC sees and what im seeing as well, i have to side with the CPC here, above normal seems like a decent bet, though this is in the 7-10 day window so expect changes from run to run

* Key point*
Alot will depend on the timing of these systems and how they evolve over time, I think rain will return, its a question of how widespread and if their will be any heavy rain around
With such a crash in the SOI, that also should mean more rain for the state
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DoctorMu
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I don't see any Death Ridge setup (above normal 500mb height anomalies) until at least June 6, and that's only on GFS. A good chance of troughs until then.

NW flow aloft on ensembles and models for the foreseeable future. At least it will be relatively pleasant. We could use some significant rain soon, though.
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DoctorMu
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Bowling for s/w's!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

We`re starting to see isolated development near the coast...likely
from the remnants of the overnight system interacting with the sea-
breeze (and helped along by the mostly sunny skies over our SSW FA
this afternoon). This activity will continue until sunset as light
offshore winds persist into the overnight hours. Otherwise the rest
of the short term forecast looks to be quiet as rain chances begin
a slow downward trend via the slowly building mid/upper ridge from
the west. While chances of another embedded short-wave (or two) in
the NW flow aloft isn`t going to be as high as today it`s not going
to be zero either for our southern/coastal zones through Thurs aft-
ernoon.
So, will keep a mention of chicken dimes in for tomorrow.

Lows for both tonight and Thursday night should range from the mid
to upper 60s north...upper 60s to lower 70s central/southern areas
to the mid 70s at the beaches. High temperatures for Thurs will be
a tiny bit warmer...in the mid to upper 80s as we`ll have a little
more sun. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

The long term forecast remains relatively unchanged. The omega
block pattern will continue dominate our pattern Friday through
Sunday with Texas primarily under the influence of the ridge. For
us here in southeast Texas, this means the continuation of a warm
and generally dry weather regime. I say "generally" since we
cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm here or there. But
most communities can expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90,
lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, and low PoPs (less than 10
percent). We will be monitoring the potential for a weak backdoor
cold front over the weekend that could drop our humidity levels
and bring slightly cooler temperatures overnight.
The most likely
areas of our CWA to be lucky enough to experience lower dew points
and cooler nights will be across our northeastern counties. In
fact, our forecast lows over our northeastern counties are in the
low/mid 60s with highs in the mid/upper 80s.

The omega block pattern may meet its demise by the Monday and
Tuesday time frame.
Global models suggest the breakdown of ridging
over our region along with more persistent onshore flow, rising
PWs, and the introduction of more PVA as shortwaves begin their
approach from the west and southwest.
This potential pattern
change still hasn`t phased the continuously dry NBM. So we once
again kept the modest early week PoPs despite the NBM`s
insistence on dry weather.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

With the lone thunderstorm of the day now fizzled out and off the
coast, the rest of the day will be rather dry with northeasterly
flow prevailing. Winds trend towards becoming light and variable
overnight. Expecting winds to remain predominantly northeasterly
on Thursday, but closer to the coast winds will become easterly by
the late afternoon hours. High resolution model guidance indicates
another round of isolated showers/thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon, but there remains uncertainty on exactly where
these will develop so there is no mention of this in any of the
TAFs as of now. VFR conditions expected to prevail through the
entire TAF period.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Light winds from the east to northeast are expected through this
evening. Winds will be variable at times. By either late tonight
or early Thursday, a more steady light to moderate east-northeast
wind regime is expected to begin. Winds may become light and
variable on Saturday before a more persistent light to moderate
onshore flow pattern takes over by Sunday and beyond. Seas are
expected to be 1-3 feet through the forecast period. There will be
a daily risk of an isolated shower or storm through the weekend.
Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms increases early next
week as ridging aloft breaks down.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 86 67 88 / 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 88 69 90 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 76 84 75 86 / 10 10 10 0
davidiowx
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 6:52 pm I don't see any Death Ridge setup (above normal 500mb height anomalies) until at least June 6, and that's only on GFS. A good chance of troughs until then.

NW flow aloft on ensembles and models for the foreseeable future. At least it will be relatively pleasant. We could use some significant rain soon, though.
Lower humidity is pleasant for all during this time of year and you’re right, rain needs to come with it over time. I’m at about 15” for the year which is better than the last few at this time. Hope it continues
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Ptarmigan
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Iceresistance wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 7:40 am Today's daily SOI is even lower at -64.63!
That is really low. I think a strong El Nino is likely. How strong? Anyone's guess.
Cpv17
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davidiowx wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 9:04 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 6:52 pm I don't see any Death Ridge setup (above normal 500mb height anomalies) until at least June 6, and that's only on GFS. A good chance of troughs until then.

NW flow aloft on ensembles and models for the foreseeable future. At least it will be relatively pleasant. We could use some significant rain soon, though.
Lower humidity is pleasant for all during this time of year and you’re right, rain needs to come with it over time. I’m at about 15” for the year which is better than the last few at this time. Hope it continues
Most of the rain looks to be west of I-35 and especially towards the panhandle into western Oklahoma and Kansas. That’s good. They need it desperately.

We’ve bound to get some rain here eventually seeing how the SOI is tanking. We don’t really need any rain now but I’m sure by the beginning of June most of us could use a drink again.
dp6
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This is the nicest May I can remember in a long time. I love the 60's dewpoints lasting this far in, it's amazing.

It can rain in the summer. No need to spoil this right now.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Generally look for partly cloudy skies through the period. There
could be possible shower/thunderstorm development today, mainly near
the coast and especially offshore in the morning followed by mainly
near and south of the Interstate 10 corridor in the afternoon. There
is not a whole lot of afternoon development showing up in the latest
available models, and a majority of the area could end up staying
dry. With the gradually building mid/upper level ridge and gradually
lowering precipitable water values heading into Friday and Friday
night, will keep the forecast dry but some isolated spots could end
up lucky and experience a brief shower/storm.

High temperatures for both today and Friday will be mostly in the
mid to upper 80s with a spot or two probably topping out at 90 or
91. Low temperatures for both tonight and Friday night should range
from the mid to upper 60s north, upper 60s to lower 70s central/
southern areas and in the mid 70s at the beaches.

42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023

It will be a great weekend as relatively dry and warm conditions
are to prevail in response to mid-upper level ridging persisting
over Southeast TX. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies along with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the 60s. The
lows overnight into the early morning hours will be in the low to
mid 60s along the Piney Woods region, in the upper 60s over the
rest of the inland portions, and in the low 70s along areas near
the coasts and bays.

A shift in the weather pattern is still expected on Monday as
ridging begins to weaken in response to an upper level trough
making its way into the Southern Plains. Models show that ridging
along the mid levels may take a bit longer to weaken. But with
sufficient moisture and an slight increase in instability,
diurnally driven isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop
Monday afternoon. More favorable conditions for the formation of
showers and thunderstorms can be expected Tuesday into Wednesday
as low level moisture and instability increases and a few
shortwaves move overhead. Models are not in full agreement of how
much rain and where it will rain for these two days, and the NBM
still favors a "drier" output; continued instead with a blended
solution and kept PoPs at 30% or less for Tuesday and 25% or less
for Wednesday. Aside from the rain chances, the highs next week
will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s, maybe a degree or two less
on Tuesday.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Any patchy early morning fog will dissipate after sunrise. VFR for
the rest of the day with NE winds around 4 to 7 knots. Very isolated
afternoon SHRA/TSRA could develop (mainly near and south of I-10) but
will not include in the TAFs for now. Quiet tonight with light winds.
Tomorrow (Friday) looks similar to today. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Light E-NE winds expected through the end of the work week. Light
S-SE flow will return this weekend and continue through the rest
of the forecast period. Seas will generally stay around 2 feet or
less but may increase to 3 feet offshore at times. Chance for
showers and thunderstorms could return early next week into mid
week as ridging weakens in response to a few shortwaves moving
across the region.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 67 88 65 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 69 90 69 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 75 86 75 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42
MARINE...24
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DoctorMu
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A pretty nice morning with an ENE breeze about 10 mph. Temp still in the 70s. Dewpoint below 70. It's more like June in NC that SETX
Cpv17
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Dew points are in the low 70’s here. Still plenty sticky and hot at my location. Feels about normal for late May to me.
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don
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imrage1.png
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

No significant issues with this TAF package as light NE surface winds
help to keep a slightly drier air mass in place across the region for
the rest of this afternoon through tomorrow morning. Some models con-
tinue to indicate very isolated activity developing later this after-
noon, but chances should be too low to add any mention in the TAFS at
this time. But will add the mention of patchy fog (~6sm) at the usual
terminals overnight/early Fri morning. Otherwise, VFR. 41
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don
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Pretty good agreement today coming in between the models of widespread rain coming back around the first of June.As a disturbance moves over SE Texas.The ICON and GFS even hint at some tropical development once the disturbance gets into the Gulf.Not that im buying that though...
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 9:25 pm
davidiowx wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 9:04 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Wed May 24, 2023 6:52 pm I don't see any Death Ridge setup (above normal 500mb height anomalies) until at least June 6, and that's only on GFS. A good chance of troughs until then.

NW flow aloft on ensembles and models for the foreseeable future. At least it will be relatively pleasant. We could use some significant rain soon, though.
Lower humidity is pleasant for all during this time of year and you’re right, rain needs to come with it over time. I’m at about 15” for the year which is better than the last few at this time. Hope it continues
Most of the rain looks to be west of I-35 and especially towards the panhandle into western Oklahoma and Kansas. That’s good. They need it desperately.

We’ve bound to get some rain here eventually seeing how the SOI is tanking. We don’t really need any rain now but I’m sure by the beginning of June most of us could use a drink again.
They can use the rain for sure. 8-)
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