June 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Pas_Bon wrote: Thu Jun 15, 2023 10:01 pm Remember when some of y’all said there didn’t look to be a death ridge setting up? Yeah, I want that back. Lol
That's becase a lot of discussion borrows from the reductionist rhetoric over in S2K, where many posters often rely on "drought-begets-drought" and other "adages" that belong in the Farmer's Almanac. With that type of reasoning, you'll reason that dry antecedent cool seasons associated with La Nina ensure persistently dry summers, while wetter antecedent seasons yield wetter summers with less "staying power" regarding the "death ridge".

In otherwords, there's the problem (homonculus fallacy) of simply describing a concept in terms of itself. Instead, there needs to be more rigorous discussion regarding the actual dynamics/physical mechanisms in play regarding the formation of "death ridges," as that is what can allow accurate predictions regarding formation and movement during summer (as well as reliable predictions regarding what truly will happen via the effects of climate change). Knowing these factors can aid in understanding why this heat is building even despite the overall cool and wet spring that Texas just had prior.

For instance, is it pure happenstance? That would imply these ridges popping up/staying anywhere, rather than being as persistent as it is near Texas/Mexico. Hence, there must be set pieces in play: either a distinct source of Rossby wave propogagtion, or some surface feature that reinforces the tendencies.

Some posters prior have mentioned high elevation Mexican deserts/plateaus as a causative surface factor regarding the formation of heat ridges ... but to confirm, we need to see if there are other intstances of ridges across other high elevation areas on Earth (i.e. Indian subcontinent and Tibetan plateau, South American Andes, Africa's Atlas Mountains, etc) during their respective hot seasons.

I cannot ever remember being this hot before and I grew up in extreme South Louisiana. No rain anywhere in sight. Yay.
Well, it depends on where in extreme South Louisiana you were at. I'm sure being way down of Lake Pontchatrain in the marshes around Pilottown won't get you much triple digit heat ... only high heat indices at best. Whereas areas like Acadiana (and also the entire northern Louisiana into Arkansas) do get in on the heat that builds from Texas.
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don wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:07 am Interesting that both the EURO and GFS bring the upper level low that's over the SE towards us as it moves underneath the ridge late month.That would bring us some relief with temps and rain,we'll see...
Ye! And it's within a week too! 🥰
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DoctorMu
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Pas_Bon wrote: Thu Jun 15, 2023 10:01 pm Remember when some of y’all said there didn’t look to be a death ridge setting up? Yeah, I want that back. Lol
I cannot ever remember being this hot before and I grew up in extreme South Louisiana. No rain anywhere in sight. Yay.
Last summer was like this in CLL. Welcome to my world.

Unfortunately, 30 years of living in Texas + the Ensembles were clear about the Death Ridge setting up as the SJT lifted and El Nino fizzled out - it's doesn't influence summer weather, except for shear forces mitigating some of the hurricane strength.

This is why I never complain about "winter" weather in SETX. :lol:
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DoctorMu
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user:null wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:36 am
don wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:07 am Interesting that both the EURO and GFS bring the upper level low that's over the SE towards us as it moves underneath the ridge late month.That would bring us some relief with temps and rain,we'll see...
Ye! And it's within a week too! 🥰
I'd take this in a heartbeat.

Image
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 161817
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
117 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Heat index values have broken into the 110s across a lot of the
area this afternoon and with a few more hours of diurnal heating
it looks like we are poised to reach 100-degree temps and 113 heat
indicies at some locations. With similar conditions expected for
tomorrow, the Excessive Heat Warning will remain in effect. We are
monitoring conditions in the Galveston area and may expand the
warning to include the coastal Galveston/Chambers zones depending
on how things develop over the next several hours in addition to
analyzing the latest model guidance.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

A similar pattern to the past several days is anticipated with VFR
conditions and moderate S/SW winds persisting for the remainder of
the day and into the early evening. Overnight, winds will relax
slightly with MVFR cigs developing after 06Z area-wide. Some
patchy fog is once again possible as well. Tomorrow, cigs will
scatter out after sunrise with moderate SW winds developing by
late morning.

Cady
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Looks like ridging is too strong on the 12z euro, the low isnt able to move west into texas, my bets on a dry forecast the next 2-4 weeks , i dont see our heat ridge weakening enough to allow that upper low to move in
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 1:59 pm Looks like ridging is too strong on the 12z euro, the low isnt able to move west into texas, my bets on a dry forecast the next 2-4 weeks , i dont see our heat ridge weakening enough to allow that upper low to move in
The longer the heat ridge hangs over us, the hotter it’s gonna get because soils will completely dry out and that’ll really get the temps cranking. We could go from the 97-102°F range to probably the 100-105°F range.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:07 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 1:59 pm Looks like ridging is too strong on the 12z euro, the low isnt able to move west into texas, my bets on a dry forecast the next 2-4 weeks , i dont see our heat ridge weakening enough to allow that upper low to move in
The longer the heat ridge hangs over us, the hotter it’s gonna get because soils will completely dry out and that’ll really get the temps cranking. We could go from the 97-102°F range to probably the 100-105°F range.
Desiccation. The DP could also drop a little. We'll see.
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 1:59 pm Looks like ridging is too strong on the 12z euro, the low isnt able to move west into texas, my bets on a dry forecast the next 2-4 weeks , i dont see our heat ridge weakening enough to allow that upper low to move in
The ridging strength over Texas is the same on both the current Euro 12z, and the prior 00z. The difference is actually the strength/orientation of both the antecedent Eastern US trough (which produces the low), as well as the associated northerly aspect of the ridging across the Northeast US. That is exactly what I talked about earlier regarding the "phasing", except the pieces have altered a bit: now, we want a STRONGER low that is able to push itself westward, and in a way that transfers enough of the northerly ridge into the Atlantic (which blocks eastward movement).

The amplified ridging prior from Texas to the Northern US is being driven by the troughing in the Pacific Northwest. The GFS might be too optimistic, but the 12z EURO might very well be too weak with the eastern trough as well.

Even if the low ultimately doesn't come to Texas, a strong enough trough (which is likely, IMO) will push far enough west to bring more relief regarding cooler highs and better rain chances enough to allow relief in high temps as well as scattered storm chances: something like the 12z CMC is most likely for now.
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I requested a photo of my weather station back home. Geez it must be miserable.
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I'll be flying in to Hobby next Friday morning for the weekend. Can you guys order some "cooler" weather for myself and my Brother and his family flying in from Indianapolis for next weekend. We are flying in for a Celebration of Life for our Mom that passed away in early April.
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Stratton20
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The GFS meanders the upper low around in the NW gom, interesting, gets stuck between two ridges
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Yea, the evolution is similar to the 06z. But I swear, it's as if the models/forces of nature or whatever are doing everything in their power to keep rain out of Texas, before sudden "buy ins" at the last minute.
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 5:48 pm I requested a photo of my weather station back home. Geez it must be miserable.
Yeah, DP about 77-78°F. Heat index of 116°F. I went to the grocery store, then unloaded. Felt like a 3 mile run. :lol:

Some rogue cells around I-35, and the clouds are being sheared off and thrown this way yet again. At least that cooled things a few degrees. I smell outflow in the next 20 min. lol
Last edited by DoctorMu on Fri Jun 16, 2023 8:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 5:58 pm I'll be flying in to Hobby next Friday morning for the weekend. Can you guys order some "cooler" weather for myself and my Brother and his family flying in from Indianapolis for next weekend. We are flying in for a Celebration of Life for our Mom that passed away in early April.
Hey, bring some cooler air from the Great Smokies - we need a retrograde front, badly!

The last few days are the worst weather since last summer. Maybe even more brutal than that - the DP 's are up a few degrees. Heat indices of 115°F+.
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Heat index was over 120°F in La Grange today.
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It was 112 for an index here in katy today, im so over summer and it only just started😂😂
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DoctorMu
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Another day, another Lucy Mammatus sighting. We have a cell heading down Hwy 6 between Marlin and Hearne. Guaranteed to fall apart within 5-10 mi of my backyard. :lol: :roll:
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 8:29 pm Heat index was over 120°F in La Grange today.
LaGrange in the Colorado River Valley is one of the hottest place in Texas, especially heat index.
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jasons2k
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@DoctorMu it’s getting close…
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