June 2023

[Stratton20]

Its definitely more than just a few degrees above normal, many places have seen low 100’s for highs in SE texas, and we normally dont see our first 100 degree temps until the first week of july, definitely unusually hot weather for mid june, when the humidity makes it feel like 115+ outside, that’s absolutely atrocious and dangerous weather to be outside in

The average high temperature in houston for june for example is around 92/93 degrees ( maybe 94 ish since its mid june now)
forecasts call for 100-103 degrees the next several days, a good 8-11 degrees above normal
And thats why i cant wait to go on vacation, texas summer weather sucks no matter how you put it

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Today was an *** beating. I was at the ball fields from 930 until 9 pm coaching.

Back at it tomorrow. Oldest is in the Champ game and youngest is starting the morning in the semis.

[Cromagnum]

So much for El Nino helping us in any way.

[Stratton20]

overnight models are showing the death rudge shifting west and building over the western us instead of texas

[user:null]

user:null i unfortunately think the state is in for some pretty rough drought conditions and potentially fires the next few weeks with this persistent blow torch inferno pattern, im just hoping something can break down the ridge and allow more disturbances to sneak in

Indeed, Texas is a cursed state. But the 18z GFS evolution is what I had in mind, and the processes are as follows:

The ridge breaks down a bit next week on Wednesday onward, enough to allow some chances via NW flow. Hopefully people score.

Then, what really needed afterwards is for the retrograding SE US low to push far enough west. Even if it never makes it to Texas, the weakness it leaves encourages further troughing from the north, which will shove the ridging even further west and encourage more rain chances.

And when that trough lifts northeast, that will tug the ridge in a northerly recenter relative to Texas. That is how you get the good easterly rains (the pattern is good, regardless of generated QPF).

[Stratton20]

user:null looks like what you described is what the overnight models show, that upper low leaves a weakness which then allows a trough to dig down , the GFS really shoces the death ridge pretty far west and has it centered over the western us

[Cpv17]

user:null looks like what you described is what the overnight models show, that upper low leaves a weakness which then allows a trough to dig down , the GFS really shoces the death ridge pretty far west and has it centered over the western us

Ok but what about the ensembles?

[Pas_Bon]

I requested a photo of my weather station back home. Geez it must be miserable.

It is.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 so far on the 00z GEFS, through day 7 its moved the death ridge position to over new mexico/ west texas, has the upper low digging into the gulf

[user:null]

My gosh what a bunch of cry babies in here.

Nope, your post is built on fallacious equivocations and strawman fallacies, along with ad hominem deflection. A sound, logical aversion to potiential upcoming weather patterns based on bayesian priors regarding similar climate events ≠ crybabies: there's clearly large degrees of detail and nuance that you're glossing over here.

Yes it is a bit hotter than normal but overall, typical summertime weather for us here in Texas. We had a nice wet Spring which wasn't going to last when summer kicked in. Welcome to Texas.

Nope, your assertion is demonstrably false. Clearly you aren't very knowledgable about climate and weather, and should stick to topics more your speed (like, say, incest).

[user:null]

user:null looks like what you described is what the overnight models show, that upper low leaves a weakness which then allows a trough to dig down , the GFS really shoces the death ridge pretty far west and has it centered over the western us

Indeed. Although I don't quite like this particular GFS run as much as the prior 18z.

[Stratton20]

redneckweather lol what? The kind of heat right now is not normal for june around here, and feels like temperatures in excess of 115 is definitely not normal for mid june, of course people are going to complain about the heat, myself included, because its awful and you cant really be outside that long unless you have a pool lol

[redneckweather]

Happy Father's Day!

[Stratton20]

Uh ok…..?
Back to weather, 99 here with a feels like closer to 110, insta sweat weather el nino winter cant arrive sooner enough!

[Cpv17]

Uh ok…..?
Back to weather, 99 here with a feels like closer to 110, insta sweat weather el nino winter cant arrive sooner enough!

Are you in Katy? My TWC app is reporting 95°F with a feels like of 112°F in Katy currently.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep im in katy with family for the summer, my app has 97 and a feels like temp of 112, absolutely brutal, helping my dad with the lawn, only been outside 5 minutes and i can feel the heat just zapping all the mositure from me, disgusting

[Ptarmigan]

Remember when some of y’all said there didn’t look to be a death ridge setting up? Yeah, I want that back. Lol

That's becase a lot of discussion borrows from the reductionist rhetoric over in S2K, where many posters often rely on "drought-begets-drought" and other "adages" that belong in the Farmer's Almanac. With that type of reasoning, you'll reason that dry antecedent cool seasons associated with La Nina ensure persistently dry summers, while wetter antecedent seasons yield wetter summers with less "staying power" regarding the "death ridge".

In otherwords, there's the problem (homonculus fallacy) of simply describing a concept in terms of itself. Instead, there needs to be more rigorous discussion regarding the actual dynamics/physical mechanisms in play regarding the formation of "death ridges," as that is what can allow accurate predictions regarding formation and movement during summer (as well as reliable predictions regarding what truly will happen via the effects of climate change). Knowing these factors can aid in understanding why this heat is building even despite the overall cool and wet spring that Texas just had prior.

For instance, is it pure happenstance? That would imply these ridges popping up/staying anywhere, rather than being as persistent as it is near Texas/Mexico. Hence, there must be set pieces in play: either a distinct source of Rossby wave propogagtion, or some surface feature that reinforces the tendencies.

Some posters prior have mentioned high elevation Mexican deserts/plateaus as a causative surface factor regarding the formation of heat ridges ... but to confirm, we need to see if there are other intstances of ridges across other high elevation areas on Earth (i.e. Indian subcontinent and Tibetan plateau, South American Andes, Africa's Atlas Mountains, etc) during their respective hot seasons.

I cannot ever remember being this hot before and I grew up in extreme South Louisiana. No rain anywhere in sight. Yay.

Well, it depends on where in extreme South Louisiana you were at. I'm sure being way down of Lake Pontchatrain in the marshes around Pilottown won't get you much triple digit heat ... only high heat indices at best. Whereas areas like Acadiana (and also the entire northern Louisiana into Arkansas) do get in on the heat that builds from Texas.

Mexico is an area where deserts occur. Deserts are usually in mid latitude areas between 30 to 50 degrees latitude. There is also the Hadley Cell, which causes air to sink at around 30 degrees. Mexico is also mountainous, in which moisture is blocked from the Pacific. The windward side is wetter, while leeward side is drier. Ocean water plays a role in desert, which is not the case with Mexico.

Heat ridges do occur around the world. There is the Saharan Heat Ridge, Azores High, Bermuda High, and Sonoran Heat Ridge. Oceans do play a role in heat ridges. They occur in the subtropical areas north or south of the equator.

Desert Biome
https://askabiologist.asu.edu/explore/d ... th%20poles.

Climatology Of Heat Ridges Affecting Europe And North America
https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramer ... SwUPE7mkM0

What is a heat dome?
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/heat-dome.html

Hadley Cells
https://groups.seas.harvard.edu/climate ... adley.html

[Cromagnum]

Come to think of it ... Father's Day is nothing but the celebration of having chose to condemn innocent souls to suffering and death without their consent. Same goes for Mother's Day.

I'm not sure how many fathers are actually on this board (and S2K). But, given the above logical facts, all that can be done is wish them to be as well as they can possibly be. Same wish, albeit belated, goes for the mothers.

Weather related how?

[user:null]

Weather related how?

I understand this is a weather board, but there are usually posts on here acknowledging holidays such as Mother's Day, Christmas, etc. So, I just offered the best well-wish that I could for Father's Day, while also accounting for the factual evidence that I described prior.

[DoctorMu]

user:null looks like what you described is what the overnight models show, that upper low leaves a weakness which then allows a trough to dig down , the GFS really shoces the death ridge pretty far west and has it centered over the western us

Ok but what about the ensembles?

The Ensembles saw this yesterday. NWS as well.

Model following hysteria vs. the sensible forecast.