I live in Richmond and so far no problem, did you get a text from Centerpoint warning you of a black out.
June 2023
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I like what im seeing so far in the 18z GFS at hours 168-192 , troughing out in the desert southwest starts starts putting pressure on the heat ridge and moving it eastward and setting up return flow, maybe allowing for some scattered showers
I did not, our kids daycare sent a message on their app saying rolling blackouts were occurring. Can’t find anything anywhere so maybe they are just assuming due to power outage.
I've never before seen a trough like that move into the Desert SW area during summer. Interesting solution.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 5:50 pm I like what im seeing so far in the 18z GFS at hours 168-192 , troughing out in the desert southwest starts starts putting pressure on the heat ridge and moving it eastward and setting up return flow, maybe allowing for some scattered showers
Would love a ridge over the SE and troughing over us and out in the SW. It would open up the Gulf for us and bring a chance for daily afternoon sea breeze storms.
GFS migrates the ridge W, then NW, then circles toward the northern planes. GEPS, EPS weaken early in July.
GEFS Ensemble suggest that GFS hasn't lost its mind.
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To dream, perchance to sleep.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral can go either way with summer. They are more likely to affect fall, winter, and spring.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:19 pmEl Niño doesn’t affect our Summer weather patterns. This has been repeated on here.
TWS doesn't see a potential MCS Wednesday night, but NWS does...we have a gambler's chance.
91 degree heat index at midnight...
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
fees like 93 right now, I cant wait for Saturday when i leave for Colorado spring , texas heat wont be missed!
Mesoscale models show a weakening MCS rolling through tomorrow morning. Looks a lot more promising for the NW areas. Weakens quite a bit as it approaches the 45, 10, & 69 corridors. Too bad it can’t come through 12 hours earlier to actually take advantage of the heat and instability.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211128
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Our stretch of widespread excessive heat continues. We still have
excessive heat warnings covering the large majority of our
population, and conditions remain potentially dangerous for those
spending active time outdoors in the heat of the day if
precautions aren`t taken. But, a slight dent in the intensity of
this heat expected for the latter part of the week does let us
convert a portion of the warning area into a heat advisory today.
The emphasis on that last sentence really needs to be placed on
"slight", as this is still an abnormally hot pattern for June.
This slight dent in the heatwave will also open the door for some
thunderstorm chances in a window between late this afternoon and
Friday. For the most part, we`ll be looking for thunderstorms to
drift in from the north in the overnight and early morning hours
before fizzling, but we could also see some more "locally grown"
storms during the day as well. Stronger storms will be capable of
producing gusty winds.
Finally, after that short change of pace, expect high end heat to
shove its way back into the picture this weekend into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
As has been the case now for the past week, the synoptic pattern
continues to be dominated by the presence of a robust and persistent
midlevel ridge that has remained generally stagnant to our NW. With
500mb heights remaining in excess of 590dam across SE TX, 850mb
remaining out of the W/SW, and moderate onshore winds at the surface
promoting low-level moisture transport, dangerous heat index values
will continue to be the main focus of the forecast. Today`s highs
look to once again approach the triple digits, which will threaten
daily high temperature records at the two Houston sites (for
reference, our first 100 degree day on average arrives on 07/19).
With dew points mixing out to the mid 70s during the afternoon, heat
index values in excess of 110 are expected inland while marginally
lower max temperatures along the immediate coast will produce values
mostly in the 105-110 range. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat
Warnings remain in effect through at least this evening, though it`s
likely that they will need to be extended to tomorrow (and quite
some time thereafter). Heat safety actions, such as remaining
hydrated and avoiding strenuous outdoor activity during the hottest
parts of the day, will continue to remain critical.
Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast in earnest this evening
as recent hires models depict an MCS associated with an approaching
shortwave trough pushing into the area around midnight tomorrow and
bringing with it an organized line of storms that may persist as far
south as the coastline. Storms associated with this system may
produce some gusty (though likely not severe) winds as they move
through the area.
Falling midlevel heights on Thursday along with continued rain
chances with the continued approach of the aforementioned shortwave
trough will result in a slight decrease in high temperatures,
particularly for locations E of the I-45 corridor. Daytime highs
will generally remain in the mid 90s for most locations, while the
upper 90s are still possible to the W of the 45 corridor. Rainfall
chances will increase during the late morning/afternoon hours as the
trough passes to our NE, with convection tapering off by the
evening. Overnight lows again look to remain in the upper 70s to
near 80 for most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
From a novelty standpoint, Friday is the day of note. The rest of
the long term is the period of note from an impacts standpoint.
In the forecast beyond Friday, we return to a resounding refrain
of "No weather. Only heat." We`ll get to that shortly, but first,
let`s look at Friday. This looks to be the last gasp of the modest
weakening in the heat dome we`re expecting for the second half of
this week. Indeed, we can probably expect one last subtle
shortwave trough/vort max aloft to roll through Friday, giving us
a last shot at showers and storms, mainly through the eastern
portion of our area. If you`re west of, say...the Brazos River, it
might be better to skip all this rain and storm talk entirely.
It may even be a stretch for the Houston metro and the I-45
communities to get much of anything. My highest PoPs - which
already are only around 30 percent - lie east and northeast of the
Houston metro.
Okay, enough talk of rain, back to heat. The deterministic models
paint a pretty good picture of the general scenario to expect.
Ridging, which takes the slightest of breathers in the short term
and on Friday, forces its way back in a big way this weekend into
early next week. Both the GFS and Euro give us a 594-598 dm mid-
level high stacked above highs below it deep into next week. That
heat dome drifts over the Rio Grande from Mexico, and slowly
drags its way northeastward across the state. By the end of this
forecast period, it is *maybe* just to the north of our area,
dragging from North Texas into Northeast Texas. And that`s the
"fast" scenario.
How believable are we talking here with these deterministic
outcomes? Well, the backing ensemble data joins right along in the
chorus. 850 mb temps in both the NAEFS and EPS means, which backed
down to the 90th to 97th percentiles increase through the weekend,
and by early next week, we are back to exceeding the 99th
percentile area-wide. Though long range surface temp forecasts
aren`t quite as reliable, we`re seeing a similar signal in the
Euro ensemble Extreme Forecast Index. We see EFI values for high
temps back off to less than 0.5 for all but some coastal areas,
then rebound through the weekend and resembles our current pattern
of 0.6 to 0.8, indicating a stronger signal for high end heat
across the area.
The NBM seems to have a pretty good grasp on things, so I`m mostly
content to roll with the deterministic NBM numbers for temps in
the long range. My main change here was to beef up temps slightly
near the coast, as we do tend to see things get a little awkward
with NBM temps around the land-sea interface.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Scattered MVFR cigs continue to hold on this morning, as in
several of the most recent mornings. These cigs should diminish
over the next 2-3 hrs with daytime heating, after which conditions
should generally remain within VFR thresholds for the duration of
the afternoon and early evening. Some uncertainty arrives later
tonight as a line of thunderstorms may approach the area from NW
to SE, though short-term models currently differ in their
depiction of the timing and intensity of these storms. As a
result, have included a window of VCSH conditions after around 09Z
to account for this possibility. Further clarity regarding
tonight`s storm potential should arrive in subsequent packages.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Generally southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots accompanied by seas of
2 to 4 feet are expected through the weekend, and likely well into
the next week as well. Caution flags can`t be totally ruled out for
short nighttime stretches when winds over the Gulf tend to drift
upwards a little.
Though primarily focused over land, some low shower and
thunderstorm chances will re-enter the forecast late this
afternoon and carry on through Friday. Rain chances on the waters
will largely be to the east of Freeport. Fair weather prevails by
Friday night, and will reign into the new week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Nearly a full suite of record high minimum temperatures yesterday
across Southeast Texas. The lone holdout was at Galveston, whose
low of 83 slipped just below the 84 mark seen June 20 of last
year.
Farther down the coast, Palacios tied its record mark of 85, and
in the north, College Station beat a very old, 1915 record of 81,
only falling to 82 yesterday. In Houston, both the official City
mark and Hobby only got as cool as 83 degrees, breaking records at
both locations.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 78 96 76 / 10 30 20 10
Houston (IAH) 99 79 96 78 / 20 30 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 90 81 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-178-179-
200-214-235-236-300-335>337-436-437-439.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ176-
177-195>199-210>213-226-227-237-238-313-338-438.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 211128
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Our stretch of widespread excessive heat continues. We still have
excessive heat warnings covering the large majority of our
population, and conditions remain potentially dangerous for those
spending active time outdoors in the heat of the day if
precautions aren`t taken. But, a slight dent in the intensity of
this heat expected for the latter part of the week does let us
convert a portion of the warning area into a heat advisory today.
The emphasis on that last sentence really needs to be placed on
"slight", as this is still an abnormally hot pattern for June.
This slight dent in the heatwave will also open the door for some
thunderstorm chances in a window between late this afternoon and
Friday. For the most part, we`ll be looking for thunderstorms to
drift in from the north in the overnight and early morning hours
before fizzling, but we could also see some more "locally grown"
storms during the day as well. Stronger storms will be capable of
producing gusty winds.
Finally, after that short change of pace, expect high end heat to
shove its way back into the picture this weekend into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
As has been the case now for the past week, the synoptic pattern
continues to be dominated by the presence of a robust and persistent
midlevel ridge that has remained generally stagnant to our NW. With
500mb heights remaining in excess of 590dam across SE TX, 850mb
remaining out of the W/SW, and moderate onshore winds at the surface
promoting low-level moisture transport, dangerous heat index values
will continue to be the main focus of the forecast. Today`s highs
look to once again approach the triple digits, which will threaten
daily high temperature records at the two Houston sites (for
reference, our first 100 degree day on average arrives on 07/19).
With dew points mixing out to the mid 70s during the afternoon, heat
index values in excess of 110 are expected inland while marginally
lower max temperatures along the immediate coast will produce values
mostly in the 105-110 range. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat
Warnings remain in effect through at least this evening, though it`s
likely that they will need to be extended to tomorrow (and quite
some time thereafter). Heat safety actions, such as remaining
hydrated and avoiding strenuous outdoor activity during the hottest
parts of the day, will continue to remain critical.
Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast in earnest this evening
as recent hires models depict an MCS associated with an approaching
shortwave trough pushing into the area around midnight tomorrow and
bringing with it an organized line of storms that may persist as far
south as the coastline. Storms associated with this system may
produce some gusty (though likely not severe) winds as they move
through the area.
Falling midlevel heights on Thursday along with continued rain
chances with the continued approach of the aforementioned shortwave
trough will result in a slight decrease in high temperatures,
particularly for locations E of the I-45 corridor. Daytime highs
will generally remain in the mid 90s for most locations, while the
upper 90s are still possible to the W of the 45 corridor. Rainfall
chances will increase during the late morning/afternoon hours as the
trough passes to our NE, with convection tapering off by the
evening. Overnight lows again look to remain in the upper 70s to
near 80 for most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
From a novelty standpoint, Friday is the day of note. The rest of
the long term is the period of note from an impacts standpoint.
In the forecast beyond Friday, we return to a resounding refrain
of "No weather. Only heat." We`ll get to that shortly, but first,
let`s look at Friday. This looks to be the last gasp of the modest
weakening in the heat dome we`re expecting for the second half of
this week. Indeed, we can probably expect one last subtle
shortwave trough/vort max aloft to roll through Friday, giving us
a last shot at showers and storms, mainly through the eastern
portion of our area. If you`re west of, say...the Brazos River, it
might be better to skip all this rain and storm talk entirely.
It may even be a stretch for the Houston metro and the I-45
communities to get much of anything. My highest PoPs - which
already are only around 30 percent - lie east and northeast of the
Houston metro.
Okay, enough talk of rain, back to heat. The deterministic models
paint a pretty good picture of the general scenario to expect.
Ridging, which takes the slightest of breathers in the short term
and on Friday, forces its way back in a big way this weekend into
early next week. Both the GFS and Euro give us a 594-598 dm mid-
level high stacked above highs below it deep into next week. That
heat dome drifts over the Rio Grande from Mexico, and slowly
drags its way northeastward across the state. By the end of this
forecast period, it is *maybe* just to the north of our area,
dragging from North Texas into Northeast Texas. And that`s the
"fast" scenario.
How believable are we talking here with these deterministic
outcomes? Well, the backing ensemble data joins right along in the
chorus. 850 mb temps in both the NAEFS and EPS means, which backed
down to the 90th to 97th percentiles increase through the weekend,
and by early next week, we are back to exceeding the 99th
percentile area-wide. Though long range surface temp forecasts
aren`t quite as reliable, we`re seeing a similar signal in the
Euro ensemble Extreme Forecast Index. We see EFI values for high
temps back off to less than 0.5 for all but some coastal areas,
then rebound through the weekend and resembles our current pattern
of 0.6 to 0.8, indicating a stronger signal for high end heat
across the area.
The NBM seems to have a pretty good grasp on things, so I`m mostly
content to roll with the deterministic NBM numbers for temps in
the long range. My main change here was to beef up temps slightly
near the coast, as we do tend to see things get a little awkward
with NBM temps around the land-sea interface.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Scattered MVFR cigs continue to hold on this morning, as in
several of the most recent mornings. These cigs should diminish
over the next 2-3 hrs with daytime heating, after which conditions
should generally remain within VFR thresholds for the duration of
the afternoon and early evening. Some uncertainty arrives later
tonight as a line of thunderstorms may approach the area from NW
to SE, though short-term models currently differ in their
depiction of the timing and intensity of these storms. As a
result, have included a window of VCSH conditions after around 09Z
to account for this possibility. Further clarity regarding
tonight`s storm potential should arrive in subsequent packages.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Generally southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots accompanied by seas of
2 to 4 feet are expected through the weekend, and likely well into
the next week as well. Caution flags can`t be totally ruled out for
short nighttime stretches when winds over the Gulf tend to drift
upwards a little.
Though primarily focused over land, some low shower and
thunderstorm chances will re-enter the forecast late this
afternoon and carry on through Friday. Rain chances on the waters
will largely be to the east of Freeport. Fair weather prevails by
Friday night, and will reign into the new week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Nearly a full suite of record high minimum temperatures yesterday
across Southeast Texas. The lone holdout was at Galveston, whose
low of 83 slipped just below the 84 mark seen June 20 of last
year.
Farther down the coast, Palacios tied its record mark of 85, and
in the north, College Station beat a very old, 1915 record of 81,
only falling to 82 yesterday. In Houston, both the official City
mark and Hobby only got as cool as 83 degrees, breaking records at
both locations.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 78 96 76 / 10 30 20 10
Houston (IAH) 99 79 96 78 / 20 30 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 90 81 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-178-179-
200-214-235-236-300-335>337-436-437-439.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ176-
177-195>199-210>213-226-227-237-238-313-338-438.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Luchs
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
It's been insanely oppressive even in Oklahoma, it did not get below 75°F last night
Vernon, TX (West of Wichita Falls) is currently (8:40 AM CDT) reporting DP of 80°F
Vernon, TX (West of Wichita Falls) is currently (8:40 AM CDT) reporting DP of 80°F
Yep - hope I don't get Lucy'd again!Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:09 am Mesoscale models show a weakening MCS rolling through tomorrow morning. Looks a lot more promising for the NW areas. Weakens quite a bit as it approaches the 45, 10, & 69 corridors. Too bad it can’t come through 12 hours earlier to actually take advantage of the heat and instability.
Will be looking forward to the outflow breeze from whatever comes down. We sure won't get any rain from it.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Based on ongoing short-term model trends, have tweaked the TAFs to
include more of a mention of convection for tonight. Guidance con-
tinues to advertise the possibility of a large area of showers and
thunderstorms moving across the CWA from the NW to SE starting at/
near midnight...progressing to the coast after sunrise (and likely
weakening at this point). For the rest of this afternoon, look for
mostly VFR conditions with winds from the SW/S less than 10kts. By
tomorrow afternoon, there`s some uncertainty concerning how stable
(or unstable) the airmass here will be in the wake of the activity
overnight. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Based on ongoing short-term model trends, have tweaked the TAFs to
include more of a mention of convection for tonight. Guidance con-
tinues to advertise the possibility of a large area of showers and
thunderstorms moving across the CWA from the NW to SE starting at/
near midnight...progressing to the coast after sunrise (and likely
weakening at this point). For the rest of this afternoon, look for
mostly VFR conditions with winds from the SW/S less than 10kts. By
tomorrow afternoon, there`s some uncertainty concerning how stable
(or unstable) the airmass here will be in the wake of the activity
overnight. 41
&&
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
12z Euro showing a back door cold front approaching from the north at the end of its run, fingers crossed
