July 2023

[user:null]

HRRR is very juicy tomorrow and especially Tuesday ... (going by the 18z run, which, of course, terminates before the modeled day is over).

[user:null]

This is for the next 5 days:


The high that’s been over us has mainly moved off to our east but yet their rain chances still look good. Ridiculous. Like I said a while back, the SE can be under a high and still get good rain.

And this is the next 7 days from the WPC:

Come to think of it, the high over them isn't actually strong either (only 591dm at most) for the 5-7 day period that you mentioned. Now, if they are still getting hosed with 594+dm heights, then yes it's ridiculous.

[Cpv17]

This is for the next 5 days:


The high that’s been over us has mainly moved off to our east but yet their rain chances still look good. Ridiculous. Like I said a while back, the SE can be under a high and still get good rain.

And this is the next 7 days from the WPC:

Come to think of it, the high over them isn't actually strong either (only 591dm at most) for the 5-7 day period that you mentioned. Now, if they are still getting hosed with 594+dm heights, then yes it's ridiculous.

Yeah, that’s a great point!

[Stratton20]

EPS has the death ridge firmly establishing itself over the state for most of july after the first week, if we dont get any appreciable rainfall this week, we may not have an opportunity for rain again for several weeks🥵 july is going to SUCK!!!

[Cpv17]

Storms are starting to pop. Looks like the convective temp has about been met.

[DoctorMu]

EPS has the death ridge firmly establishing itself over the state for most of july after the first week, if we dont get any appreciable rainfall this week, we may not have an opportunity for rain again for several weeks🥵 july is going to SUCK!!!

The ridge is elongated and south on GFS and GEPS ensemble. Mid to upper 90s.

The best chance of rain here is Wednesday evening and Thursday.

The continued prog mantra for July will be seasonable to slightly above average temps and a 20-30% chance of rain daily.

In other words, welcome to another Texas summer! Hopefully the DPS continue to be in the upper 60s and low 70s instead of upper 70s.

[DoctorMu]

There is a bit of a sea breeze popping up. Widely scattered showers for now.

[DoctorMu]

We've got some rain cells SW of us. I'm sure they will die crossing the Brazos River before reaching us.

Looks like another, day, another outflow with no rain.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[Cromagnum]

Looks like some of the same folks that cashed on yesterday, cashed in again today.

[DoctorMu]

I wish that MCS near Laredo would stay together and head this way.

With the broad trough now present, keep the conveyor belt moving!

At least temps will be lower for a few more days.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

Hot and humid with growing cumulus is the theme this afternoon.
Temps are generally in the mid-90s with heat index values over
100F. Some of you will likely receive a cooling shower or
thunderstorm this afternoon. If satellite and radar trends have
anything to say about it, the best chance of afternoon showers and
storms will be associated with the sea breeze boundary that has
already sparked off a few showers/storms over our coastal
counties. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning will
be the primary concern. Not every locations will receive rain.
Chance of storms will decrease with the loss of daytime heating.
Expect another very warm and muggy night.

At first glance, the 4th of July looks like a carbon copy of
today. Once again it will be quite hot and humid. Remember to
practice heat safety if you are spending your holiday outdoors.
However, a closer look at the atmosphere and the model guidance
show that PWAT values are likely to be on the increase as a
gradual surge of deep tropical moisture pushes northwestward from
the western Gulf of Mexico into southeastern Texas. RAP analysis
is currently showing PWAT values of 1.60-1.80" across our CWA.
PWATs could increase to at least 2.00" by tomorrow afternoon,
adding more fuel for shower and thunderstorm activity. Therefore,
we think PoPs are generally higher tomorrow than they are today.
Our PoPs skew a little higher than NBM guidance since moisture is
expected to be quite abundant. PoPs range from 20-30 percent in
our northern most and Brazos Valley Counties to 40-60 percent in
the Houston metro. The bay area along with coastal Brazoria,
Galveston, and Chambers all have PoPs near 60 percent. Coastal
areas could have shower and thunderstorm activity as early as the
mid morning hours. Otherwise, the best chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be from about midday through the afternoon.
Much like today, PoPs should decrease with the loss of daytime
heating. Though the chance of rain isn`t necessarily zero after
sunset, the chance of shower and thunderstorm activity occurring
during peak firework display time is relatively low. But it`s
never a bad idea to check the radar just in case!

Happy 4th of July everyone! Be safe and enjoy!

Self


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

Rain and thunderstorm chances are the main weather story in the long
term period. A weak upper trough will continue through the week,
setting up the stage for a more typically summer- like pattern. At
the surface, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will
continue to bring persistent onshore flow, and hence, deeper Gulf
moisture over the area. In fact, deterministic models, including
NAM, suggest an uptick in moisture with PWAT values at or above 2
inches through the end of the week. The combination of deep
moisture, multiple vort maxes aloft and diurnal cycle convection
(sea/bay breeze interaction) will allow for increasing rain and
storm chances each day. A parameter to continue monitoring is sfc
dewpoints, especially in the afternoon hours. Latest guidance,
particularly the GFS, suggest dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s Wednesday afternoon across our half western counties.
Therefore, the best chances look to remain south of I-10 and over
the Gulf waters. Rain and storm chances will gradually decrease
after Saturday as upper ridge centered to our west strengthens and
moves overhead.

Temperatures-wise...increasing cloud cover and precipitation
chances will keep temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Highs will generally be from the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows
mainly in the mid to upper 70s. A gradual warming trend is once
again expected during the weekend as the ridge builds over the
region. Highs from the upper 90s to even 100F can be expected
Saturday and Sunday. Increasing humidity and hot conditions will
likely bring heat indices near advisory levels during this time
frame.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

The primary feature of interest will be the sea breeze boundary as
it marches inland. SHRA/TSRA activity is already developing along
the boundary just inland from the coast. In addition, there may be
isolated TSRA activity farther inland. Therefore, VCTS was kept in
most of the TAFs for this afternoon. Winds should become more
southeasterly as the afternoon progresses. By late tonight and
early tomorrow morning, areas of MVFR cigs will be possible. Most
locations are expected to either remain VFR or only experience
brief MVFR cigs. Patchy fog is possible, especially in non urban
areas that experience rainfall. Tomorrow will feature another
chance of SHRA/TSRA. Moisture levels are expected to be higher
tomorrow, yielding to a better chance of rain, especially from IAH
south to the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

Surface high pressure centered across the eastern Gulf will continue
to bring light to moderate onshore flow along the Upper TX coast.
Winds will generally remain between 10 to 15 knots through mid-week,
before increasing towards the end of the week. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day this
week. The best chances will be at night into the early morning
hours over the Gulf waters and along the coast and Bays in the
afternoon and evening. The best potential for rain/storm chances
will be Wednesday through Friday. Drier and warmer weather returns
late Saturday/Sunday. With persistent onshore flow, the risk of
rip current will increase after Wednesday.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 96 77 96 / 10 30 10 30
Houston (IAH) 80 95 79 94 / 10 50 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 82 89 82 89 / 40 60 30 60

[Stratton20]

Man that 18z GFS is brutal, creates a mega death ridge linkage from the west coast all the way into the atlantic, torching the entire southern US🥵🥵

[user:null]

Looks like some of the same folks that cashed on yesterday, cashed in again today.

I cashed in yesterday, but nothing happened here today. The storms were building well around 11AM on the coast, the defined sea-breeze even moving through: then it all died off as soon as it reached mid-Brazoria county. I don't know why the sea-breeze/boundary didn't trigger anything today in the central HOU counties today (versus greater convection off in areas like El Campo and now NW Harris/Montgomery county areas).

[user:null]

Man that 18z GFS is brutal, creates a mega death ridge linkage from the west coast all the way into the atlantic, torching the entire southern US🥵🥵

I like that trend actually, it's better for Texas than the "bubble" formation that dominated much of June: regardless of whatever QPF the models spit out, that formation, at the very least, spreads heat throughout, rather than focusing it on Texas. The elongated formation just needs to gain a little more latitude, then Texas bathes in easterly, Atlantic coolness...

At this point, I think the 850mbs (and maybe also 700mbs) matter much more w/ regardings to high temps in contrast the the 500mbs alone. Notice on the runs how with the eastern troughs the really hot 850mbs sort of "waft" eastward: it essentially follows the movement of the surface cyclones spawned by the troughs, same manner as during the cooler season. The wrong penetration with those troughs can send such heat down to SE Texas, and drive up temps (whereas the "right" movement would keep much of the heat confined to the Central Plains/Midwest instead).

Hence, overall, one could argue that the predomination of "mid-latitude influences" deeper into the summer season in some portion of the country is what is responsible for producing/sustaining summer drought formations in Texas.

[Cpv17]

The CPC forecast today was ugly. Really ugly.

[Stratton20]

No kidding that CPC outlook makes me

[Cromagnum]

Bring on all that much discussed rain. Hoping for some thunderstorm training to setup.

Down in League City running errands and see blooming cumulus everywhere.

[jasons2k]

I got .58” from Sunday’s storms.
We noticed yesterday parts of The Woodlands were still parched.
We’re having a pool party for the 4th - would prefer if the rain held off today of all days.

[Katdaddy]

Round 2 tropical shower just starting in W League City. Only .16" so far but the yard and squirrels are happy.

[Cromagnum]

So far everything is popping to my north

[Cpv17]

All I got here was a couple light to moderate showers that only lasted a couple minutes. Just enough to make the ground wet that’s it. Same thing yesterday too.