July 2023

[DoctorMu]

A few days ago, but Brooks Garner FOX 35

** 97°F (36°C) Water off Florida **
Johnson Key, 25.05 N,-80.91 W
Normally it's 88°-90°F (~32°C) this time of year.
[https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=jkyf1]
Ideal hot tub temperature: 100°-102°

The GoM stew is cooking. Once the ridge begins to dissipate, then katy bar the door. We have all the ingredients for a CAT4 or CAT5 hurricane in the Gulf in August and at least the first half of September.

[Stratton20]

I dont believe ive ever seen the gulf that warm before!
As Han Solo Said “ I got a bad feeling about this “
Im definitely alarmed by those sea surface temps, August/ September are going to be very interesting months here locally

[DoctorMu]

Looks like the 18z GFS could be breaking down the DR faster. We'll see.

[captainbarbossa19]

A few days ago, but Brooks Garner FOX 35

** 97°F (36°C) Water off Florida **
Johnson Key, 25.05 N,-80.91 W
Normally it's 88°-90°F (~32°C) this time of year.
[https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=jkyf1]
Ideal hot tub temperature: 100°-102°

The GoM stew is cooking. Once the ridge begins to dissipate, then katy bar the door. We have all the ingredients for a CAT4 or CAT5 hurricane in the Gulf in August and at least the first half of September.

Probably not much wind there to stir the water. A track like Rita or Katrina through the Gulf right now would be ugly if conditions are favorable.

[DoctorMu]

A few days ago, but Brooks Garner FOX 35

** 97°F (36°C) Water off Florida **
Johnson Key, 25.05 N,-80.91 W
Normally it's 88°-90°F (~32°C) this time of year.
[https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=jkyf1]
Ideal hot tub temperature: 100°-102°

The GoM stew is cooking. Once the ridge begins to dissipate, then katy bar the door. We have all the ingredients for a CAT4 or CAT5 hurricane in the Gulf in August and at least the first half of September.

Probably not much wind there to stir the water. A track like Rita or Katrina through the Gulf right now would be ugly if conditions are favorable.

Exactly. A tropical system on that path would be turbo-bosted. Michael got that effect before coming on shore on the FL panhandle.

[TexasBreeze]

I counted 3 little tiny seabreeze showers to the southwest of us with a couple more showers to the northeast. A slight positive before this high peaks in a few days around the state.

[Stratton20]

And we also have plenty of upper ocean heat content to work with, definitely concerned

[Ptarmigan]

A few days ago, but Brooks Garner FOX 35

** 97°F (36°C) Water off Florida **
Johnson Key, 25.05 N,-80.91 W
Normally it's 88°-90°F (~32°C) this time of year.
[https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=jkyf1]
Ideal hot tub temperature: 100°-102°

The GoM stew is cooking. Once the ridge begins to dissipate, then katy bar the door. We have all the ingredients for a CAT4 or CAT5 hurricane in the Gulf in August and at least the first half of September.

Perhaps a storm that could break Wilma's record in terms of intensity? It only takes one...................

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Back in CoCo after a trip up north.

Cleaned out an outdoor shed in 103 degree heat and found 38,000 Yellowjackets, a Japanese sword from WW2 and a box from 1941 my wife’s grandpa sent to his future wife.

Outside of the heat and exhaustion, it was pretty cool. Definitely makes you appreciate America’s greatest generation.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171122
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

The start of the work week will be...yup, you guessed it...HOT.
Although another weak shortwave rounding the base of an upper level
trough associated to an upper low over Ontario Canada moves across
the Southern Plains today, it will not bring much relief from the
persistent heat in Southeast TX nor any significant rain due to the
strength and proximity of the mid level high. In fact, models show
the mid level high sliding a little more east, somewhat centered
across the Four Corners today and centered across New Mexico on
Tuesday. This will result in an increase the local temperatures for
us. Sadly, we are looking at high temperatures peaking between 100
to 104 degrees F today and Tuesday for much of the inland portions,
the upper 90s along the southernmost portions and in the low to mid
90s along the immediate coasts and Barrier Islands. The heat indices
will continue to range between 108 to 112 degrees F, keeping all of
Southeast Texas under a Heat Advisory. Very little relief will be
felt at overnight as the low temperatures remain in the upper 70s to
low 80s and dewpoints in the 70s.

Dangerous heat conditions are to continue, make sure to continue to
practice heat safety during the next several days. Make the
appropriate adjustments if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.
Remember to hydrate often, wear lightweight and loose fitting
clothing, stay in the shade or cool off in an air conditioned
building. Wear sunscreen and swim near a lifeguard if you plan to
visit the beaches. Never leave children or pets unattended in
vehicles. If the ground is too hot for your hands, then it`s also
too hot for their paws.

Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
Check with your local authorities regarding the potential opening of
any cooling centers in your area.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

The high pressure that has been dominating our weather for the
last week will continue to be overhead from midweek through Friday.
This high pressure will suppress precipitation chances and keep
temperatures toasty. High temperatures through Friday will be
around 100 degrees inland with coastal areas topping out in the
mid 90s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Heat
Advisories will likely be needed through the end of the work week
as heat indices climb to 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon.

Guidance continues to hint that the upper level ridge will shift
westward towards the Great Basin over the weekend with a broad
trough digging down across the eastern half of CONUS. Shortwaves
sliding down the western side of the broad trough will bring
chances of showers and thunderstorms to SE Texas. The first of the
shortwaves looks to arrive late Saturday into Sunday, and then
possibly another one late Sunday. Increased cloud cover and
precipitation may bring temperatures down a few degrees compared
to the rest of the week, but still approaching the upper 90s for
most of the area during the afternoons. The extreme heat combined
with essentially zero precipitation the last few weeks have led
to the rapid growth of drought conditions across the area. So,
having a chance for showers and thunderstorms, even if on Day 6
and 7 of the forecast period, is a welcome sight.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

No significant aviation hazards expected through the TAF period.
MVFR to VFR cigs across SE TX will turn VFR around 14-15Z. Light
S-SW winds will strengthen to 7-14 KTS this afternoon and turn
S-SE. Winds relax overnight with MVFR to VFR cigs expected to
redevelop by early Tues morning. Some light iso patchy fog could
develop overnight into early Tues morning.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Not much change in conditions through the week. Onshore flow of 10
to 15kts, increasing to 15 to 20kts during the the overnight
periods, and seas generally 2 to 4 feet. There may be some
isolated showers and storms over the coast waters by the end of
the week with increasing chances by the end of the weekend.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 78 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 101 80 102 80 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 82 93 83 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...24
MARINE...Fowler

[Cromagnum]

I feel like anything that can survive the Caribbean shredder will have rocket fuel once it gets to the gulf. Someone is going to get smacked hard this year.

[tireman4]

VIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

With the synoptic pattern remaining relatively unchanged, TAFs
are fairly persistent. Southwesterly winds become southerly by
the afternoon due to the seabreeze. Overnight, MVFR ceilings are
expected to develop across the region mainly between a window of
10Z-15Z, then ceilings lift back to VFR for the remainder of
Tuesday. Winds start out southwesterly again on Tuesday morning
and become southerly in the afternoon hours.

Batiste

[Iceresistance]

I'm still here, but nearly forgot the site until now.


I already have the wettest July EVER!

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 172022
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Hot! Hot!
Ohh we got it!
Hot! Hot!
Hey we got it!
Hot! Hot!
Say we got it!
Hot temperatures!

Yes...it`s a reference from a Christmas movie, but it`s been stuck
in my head for multiple days now so I`m just spreading the soundbite
for y`all to enjoy as well! The dangerous heat continues throughout
the week with high temperatures near or above the 100°F mark over
the next few days. This is in spite of the midlevel high pressure
(codename: heatdome) sitting over the Four Corners region today. If
you check out the 500mb UA obs/heights plot from 12Z this morning,
you`ll see that we`re on the eastern fringe of the midlevel high.
Theoretically, we`re in excellent position for shortwaves wrapping
around this high, which actually looks to happen on Tuesday.
However...we`re a bit too dry for anything convective to actually
develop with PW values no higher than 1.6" (75th percentile: 1.99"),
mid level RH generally lower than 50%, and low level RH generally
less than 60%. So...don`t expect any relief in the form of rainfall.

High temperatures will top out around or above 100°F today and
Tuesday with heat index values ranging from 106-112°F. Dew points
efficiently mixing out in the afternoons into the 60s is our saving
grace from reaching excessive heat territory. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect through Tuesday night, but you can expect this to
be extended as elevated heat index values remain in the forecast
throughout the week. The midlevel high will edge its way back
eastward and become centered over west TX by Tuesday afternoon. This
subsequently increases 500mb heights from today`s 592-594 dam to 594-
596 dam by tomorrow. As a result, Tuesday`s high temperatures will
be about a degree or so warmer (we can thank whoever said "it can`t
get any hotter than this, right?"). For Tuesday, I have a quite a
few spots reaching 103-104°F, especially in the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods areas. This is right below the air temperature threshold
for excessive heat (105°F), so the heat will be particularly
dangerous across our northern counties.

Please continue to keep heat safety at the forefront of any of your
plans (especially if outdoors). Know the locations of your nearest
cooling centers, know the signs of heat related illnesses, drink
plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the
heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of
the day, wear light clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS
look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as
well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is
too hot for their paws. Stay safe, stay cool, stay hydrated. ❤

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

The robust midlevel ridge that will generally remain dominant
throughout the duration of the forecast period (as it has for the
past month or so now) will continue to drift to the east as we
enter the extended period, with global models remaining in
agreement that maximum 500mb heights will continue to hover around
600dam. As such, conditions will remain unseasonably hot and
humid, with strong subsidence from the aforementioned midlevel
ridge acting to stifle chances for any diurnally driven
convection through Friday. Daytime highs will continue to approach
or exceed the 100-degree mark, with elevated humidity thanks to
the steady onshore flow producing heat index values as high as 110
(and likely requiring additional Heat Advisories for the
foreseeable future). Overnight lows will also continue to hover
around the 80 degree mark. As such, preventative heat safety
actions will remain critical for the time being.

A slight shift to the pattern arrives heading into the weekend as
the prevailing ridge shifts back to the west, opening up the
potential for some scattered showers and storms as a series of
midlevel shortwave troughs approach the area from the NW as a
longwave trough settles into the E/NE CONUS. While there remains
some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of any shortwave
passages, the next likely window for measurable rainfall currently
looks to be roughly between Saturday afternoon and late Sunday. In
addition to the rainfall, increased cloud coverage may also act to
suppress daytime heating slightly and reduce high temperatures by
a few degrees. It`s too early to say for now, but the weekend may
bring us our first day without a heat-related Advisory or Warning
in quite some time.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

With the synoptic pattern remaining relatively unchanged, TAFs
are fairly persistent. Southwesterly winds become southerly by
the afternoon due to the seabreeze. Overnight, MVFR ceilings are
expected to develop across the region mainly between a window of
10Z-15Z, then ceilings lift back to VFR for the remainder of
Tuesday. Winds start out southwesterly again on Tuesday morning
and become southerly in the afternoon hours.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Typical summertime conditions will prevail throughout the
remainder of the week and into the weekend as a steady light to
moderate onshore wind continues to persist. Seas will remain in
the 2 to 4 foot range during this time, and cautions currently
appear unlikely to be needed. Our next chance of scattered showers
and storms will arrive on Saturday afternoon and Sunday as a
disturbance moves through the area.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 102 79 100 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 93 83 91 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cady

[user:null]

To be honest, Texas heat is very weird. There needs to be some studies, because from face-value, there's just no logic, rhyme or reason whatsoever.

For example DFW area is surging well into triple digit heat today despite getting lucky with some rain over the weekend (as per S2K members). Meanwhile, McAllen, which has had less rain for the month, and has dried out for longer (last rain was 4th of July week) has only barely hit triple digits. In fact, areas of South Texas like Brownsville and Corpus actually don't get much in the way of 100°F temps, even when they get fractions of the rain.

Another example: Texarkana actually has a higher record max temp (112°F) than McAllen (111°F), despite the latter having consistently hotter temps and much drier climate. In fact, the 111°F in McAllen occured in June, not even August.

[Pas_Bon]

Honestly, I miss my south Louisiana climate (Abbeville, LA) - minus the hurricanes - where I was born and raised. I can’t stand Summers here in Houston anymore.

[DoctorMu]

Another 103°F day, but partially saved by good mixing down with DPs sinking to the low 60s. So, kind of tolerable. Slight rain chances reappear this weekend with a "disturbance in the force" allowing S/Ws to tease the area. Need some friggin' rain!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181122
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

No significant changes were made to the forecast. Dangerous heat
will continue today and Wednesday with peak heat indices up to 110°F.
A strong upper level ridge, which the mean 500 hPa heights
continues to reach the 99th or Max percentile of climatology per
the NAEFS and GEFS, will slightly move east and expand across the
West TX/Southern Plains, resulting in very hot days. With little
movement of the ridge, another hot Wednesday can also be expected.
Expect highs from the mid 90s to 102°F both days; though highs
could be a couple of degrees cooler on Wednesday as the ridge
slightly shifts west. Therefore, a Heat Advisory remains in effect
for the entire region and has been extended through Wednesday
evening. Temperatures will need to be monitored during the day
across portions of the Brazos Valley area for potential Excessive
Heat Warning as highs may possibly be at or close to 105°F.

In terms of precipitation, with strong subsidence aloft thanks to
the upper ridge, a fairly quiet weather is expected. Although a
few/isolated activity is possible well offshore as smaller waves
race through the east to northeasterly flow aloft.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

The mid to upper level ridge will continue to hold strong across
the Southern Plains, limiting rain chances and providing little to
no cloud cover during the daytime. Consequently, dangerous hot
conditions expected through at least the end of the work week
with afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 90s to low 100s
over inland portions, the mid to upper 90s over the southernmost
portions, and in the low to mid 90s along the immediate coast and
Barrier Islands. Although dewpoints will lower into the 60s to low
70s range in the afternoons Thursday and Friday, heat indices
will still peak in the triple digits and will likely require the
continuance of a Heat Advisory for portions of Southeast TX...in
particular, the central and southern portions.

Fortunately, a slight shift in the weather pattern may occur this
upcoming weekend and we may finally see increasing rain chances
for our local area. The mid to upper level ridge will begin to
shift towards West CONUS as an upper level trough deepens over
Midwest CONUS. The influence of this upper trough will become
stronger on Sunday as several weak disturbances round the base of
the trough and pass through East and Southeast TX. At this time,
we have isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday
and mostly scattered showers and thunderstorms for Sunday. With
this increase of both rain and cloud coverage, temperatures will
begin to fall a few degrees during the weekend, albeit still in
the upper 90s. Moreover, the global models are hinting at a
northerly wind shift on Saturday; this could be an indication of
a weak surface front or outflow boundary from storms developing to
our north, which may enhance shower and thunderstorm development
over our area. It`s hard to not get our hopes up for this, but,
it is too soon to know for sure if that will be the case.
Still...let`s keep our fingers crossed for a good soak and some
"cooler" temperatures.

By the start of the work week, the mid level high will want to
push back into the Four Corners, but it seems that we may still
have a little bit of weakness aloft...enough to possibly keep
bringing rain chances during the afternoon both Monday and
Tuesday. We`ll have to see how robust the mid level ridge will
become to get a better idea of how much rain could develop and for
what locations. For now, continued with isolated to scattered
chances.

24(AC)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

MVFR conditions due to low clouds/stratus are expected to
improve/lift around 14-15Z Tuesday. Then, VFR conditions with few
to scattered Cu clouds are expected during the day. Winds will
strengthen to 8-15 knots later today, before becoming light and
variable at night. Another round of MVFR ceilings is expected
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

The summer time pattern will prevail for the next several days
with light onshore winds during the day and light to moderate
winds at night. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet for much of
the period. Chance for showers and thunderstorms will begin
Friday, with higher chances expected during the upcoming weekend
in to early next week as a few disturbances move across the
region. Slightly higher winds and waves could occur with strong
storms.

24(AC)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 101 80 101 79 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 91 82 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24

[user:null]

Without a doubt, there's a link between the persistent troughing in the Eastern US emanating from the Great Lakes region, and the dry spells that afflict much of Texas, during the summer season. It is apparently an effect of -PDO going by S2K.

[user:null]

It's also possible that there is a bias of sorts that prevents depiction/manifestation of rain in Texas during summer. Or maybe some other sort of thing mucking stuff up. Look at the 12ZGFS run: plenty of high 300-700mb moisture periods in Texas that yielded paltry amounts at best.