July 2023

[Cromagnum]

Big blowup in the gulf south of NOLA. Even if it doesn't come here, something to keep an eye on.

[tireman4]

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Scattered showers continue to sit over coastal areas (near
LBX/GLS) with additional development expected along the sea breeze
around 20-22Z for further inland areas up to IAH/CXO. Any
convection that develops will dissipate by 00-01Z. There will be a
brief window IAH and southward for gusty southeasterly winds up to
20 kts following the sea breeze. Winds trend towards becoming
light and variable after sunset. Patchy fog will be possible once
again, mainly for southwestern locations, so for now only LBX has
a hint at it. Winds remain light through Tuesday morning. Still a
bit uncertain on shower/storm coverage Tuesday afternoon,
especially with a layer of Saharan dust moving in late Tuesday
morning. So, leaving out any mentions of VCSH/VCTS for now.

Batiste

&&

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum agreed, water temps where that blow up of convection is are around 31-32 Celcius, also got a flare up of storms in the BOC, interesting

[DoctorMu]

Low Shear in the northern Gulf around the old front. The southern Gulf and Caribbean are Tropical Death for now. The northern Gulf is where the action will be and remain as the ridge builds in the southern Gulf + the shear...

[DoctorMu]

The northern Gulf has the potential to be the tropical playground.

[Cromagnum]

Not much of anything yesterday. Nothing at all today.

[davidiowx]

Rained for 10 seconds at work. Came to limbs down all over the neighborhood. What the heck

ETA - got a measly trace of rain.

[suprdav2]

Got almost an inch here in Cypress. Blew up right over the house. Lots of lightning and gusty winds.

[Stratton20]

00z GFS has a weak closed low approaching from the east gulf ar hour 144 fwiw, interesting

[Cromagnum]

00z GFS has a weak closed low approaching from the east gulf ar hour 144 fwiw, interesting

Probably the only way to get a real widespread rain right now.

[Cromagnum]

95L is in better shape this morning than it was yesterday. Any chance it survives the Caribbean and makes it to the GoM ?

[JDsGN]

Fairfield portion of Cypress got walloped pretty good yesterday. I recorded 1.2" of rain that started about 5:50 and ended about 6:40. The power went out, lots of wind and lightning. Thats twice now since Saturday night that we've been extremely lucky and gotten a small but strong storm pop up and come right over us. Usually we are stuck in what the neighborhood calls "the Fairfield Bubble"

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum well 95L has actually split into 2 pieces now, but it is expected to go into central america, hard to get it to come into the gulf with the sub tropical high nosing in from the eastern gulf/ atlantic

[Stratton20]

Currently watching a video by Mark Sudduth, great expert on the tropics, says we need to watch the gulf carefully over the next week for some sneaky development, that 20% wave designated by the NHC off near the bahamas, well model guidance including the GFS and Euro both show that energy getting into the gulf, and moving generally westward, something to definitely watch, overall the environment isn’t overly conducive in the gulf, with some shear, but still worth keeping an eye on

[tireman4]

AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Showers have had a harder time developing and sustaining
themselves so far today, and latest high resolution model guidance
continues to point towards isolated convection as well through the
afternoon/evening. VCSH has only been included for IAH and
southward mainly between a window of 20Z-00Z. Anything that
develops will dissipate by 00Z. There`s also a window for gusty
southeasterly winds following the sea breeze with gusts around
15-20 knots possible after 21Z. Winds trend towards becoming light
and variable after sunset, with another round of patchy fog
possible at LBX overnight. Expecting a similar pattern for
Wednesday.

Batiste

[biggerbyte]

Do any of you have an issue where the page auto scrolls? I'm trying to read posts, but the darn thing keeps moving.

[DoctorMu]

That blob in the Gulf along the old front remnant just keeps blobbing.

[user:null]

Probably the only way to get a real widespread rain right now.

It is the only way indeed. Otherwise, we just have to make the most of scattered stuff: Sugar Land/FB area scored big yesterday. And even though today was supposed to be less active because of SAL, there are still storms making it through (a good hit at Hobby Airport since 4th of July FINALLY).

[Cromagnum]

3 days in a row its rained right by me and I haven't gotten jack.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 251949
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
249 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Right on cue, showers began to develop inland right around the 1pm-
2pm CDT timeframe, which is on track with some of the 12Z high
resolution guidance. Although some of the 12Z CAMs showed this
development occuring an hour or so later than what is currently
occuring. So far, we haven`t seen much lightning or a prolonged
duration with most of these showers. This could be attributed to the
influx of Saharan dust making its way in and limiting droplet size
within the clouds. However, it could also be due to the subsidence
inversion layer aloft being a bit more pronounced today compared to
Monday. All that being said, there is still an abundance of DCAPE
(~1500 J/kg) paired with steep low level lapse rates (sfc-3km LR`s ~
8°C/km) and a dry sfc-1km layer. We`ve already seen one downburst
(it was rather weak though) within the 610 loop this afternoon, so
be on the lookout for gusty winds if one of these showers manages to
become strong. Also, in typical fashion, the best chance for seeing
rain today/Wednesday will be near and south of I-10.

Not much new to talk about in terms of temperatures. The mid/upper
level high continues to sit over the New Mexico/Texas Panhandle
area, which is keeping our 500mb heights between 592-596 dam. In
addition to that, 700mb/850mb temperatures will remain comfortably
at or above the 90th percentile (GEFS/NAEFS), so expect high
temperatures to remain in the mid to upper 90s with a few spots
reaching 100°F today and tomorrow. The good news is that the drier
air will keep us from seeing widespread elevated heat index values.
Heat index values will max out in the 102-107°F range. PW values
today are mainly in the 1.4"-1.7" range, and will be about 0.1"-0.2"
lower on Wednesday. For context, the 75th percentile this time of
year is 2.02" and the 25th percentile is 1.60". So, even though we
remain just east enough to get in on some PVA from shortwaves
wrapping around the mid level high, we`ll be a bit too dry to see
anything more than isolated to widely scattered showers/storms
develop along the sea breeze in the afternoons.

Speaking of wrapping around, a weak-ish jet streak (45-55 knots)
will wrap around the upper level high later this evening. This
likely won`t do much other than cause a slight increase in cloud
coverage for areas within the region of upper level divergence
Wednesday afternoon. Just think of that as a bonus nugget for
reading this far into the discussion. Double bonus nugget for the
climo fans: The City of Houston is currently 0.1°F behind July 2022
for the warmest July on record. July 2022 came in at an average
88.0°F, while July 2023 currently stands at an average 87.9°F. July
1980 stands in 3rd place with an average 87.5°F.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Wx pretty much remains status quo into the weekend. Mid level
inverted trof will make its way into the western Gulf and
continue heading westward under the ridge and across Mexico this
weekend. Can`t rule out an isolated seabreeze shra/tstm near the
coast, but chances are pretty remote.

As the inverted trof passes, ridging centered to our northwest migrates/expands
eastward into the Plains and Tennessee Valley...with heights increasing
a bit southward into our area as well. As such, we`ll probably be looking
at more widespread and prevalent highs in the 100-103 range. Some guidance
is showing some 2" PW`s making their way in from the Gulf early-mid
next week. Too early to say what the thermal profile will look like
aloft, but chances are that subsidence will be a limiting factor for
meaningful rain chances (and heat index values might be a greater
concern). 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Light/moderate onshore winds expected through the period. Seas
will remain in the 2-3ft range with isolated late night and early
morning showers or thunderstorms possible...mostly offshore. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Showers have had a harder time developing and sustaining
themselves so far today, and latest high resolution model guidance
continues to point towards isolated convection as well through the
afternoon/evening. VCSH has only been included for IAH and
southward mainly between a window of 20Z-00Z. Anything that
develops will dissipate by 00Z. There`s also a window for gusty
southeasterly winds following the sea breeze with gusts around
15-20 knots possible after 21Z. Winds trend towards becoming light
and variable after sunset, with another round of patchy fog
possible at LBX overnight. Expecting a similar pattern for
Wednesday.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 78 98 78 97 / 10 30 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 91 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$