Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 2:01 pm
Currently watching a video by Mark Sudduth, great expert on the tropics, says we need to watch the gulf carefully over the next week for some sneaky development, that 20% wave designated by the NHC off near the bahamas, well model guidance including the GFS and Euro both show that energy getting into the gulf, and moving generally westward, something to definitely watch, overall the environment isn’t overly conducive in the gulf, with some shear, but still worth keeping an eye on
Exactly - I've been progging this for awhile;
- Old front in the Gulf.
- Bath water in the Gulf
- No shear off the Bahamas, Florida Straits, Northern Gulf.
We're a week away from August. It's nearly time to keep a watchful eye out for tropical mischief.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 2:01 pm
Currently watching a video by Mark Sudduth, great expert on the tropics, says we need to watch the gulf carefully over the next week for some sneaky development, that 20% wave designated by the NHC off near the bahamas, well model guidance including the GFS and Euro both show that energy getting into the gulf, and moving generally westward, something to definitely watch, overall the environment isn’t overly conducive in the gulf, with some shear, but still worth keeping an eye on
Exactly - I've been progging this for awhile;
- Old front in the Gulf.
- Bath water in the Gulf
- No shear off the Bahamas, Florida Straits, Northern Gulf.
We're a week away from August. It's nearly time to keep a watchful eye out for tropical mischief.
Hurricane Alicia formed from a frontal boundary in 1983. Not saying we will see another Alicia.
biggerbyte wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 2:28 pm
Do any of you have an issue where the page auto scrolls? I'm trying to read posts, but the darn thing keeps moving.
Mine does that of and on, especially if I am in the process of making a post.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023
A weak upper-level jet streak (45-50kt) will sit over the area
through tonight. While PWAT values remain in the 1.4-1.6" range
(below 75th percentile), divergence aloft coupled with the afternoon
sea/bay breeze may be sufficient enough to warrant isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highest chances
exist south of I-10. Expect activity to wane in the evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Kept PoPs in the 20-20% range for this area
as Saharan Dust and subsidence from the upper level ridge may limit
rain chances.
As far as Thursday is concerned, a TUTT-low will develop off the
coast of Mexico/South Texas overnight tonight into Thursday. While
the more favorable dynamics remain south of the area, this
disturbance will lead to a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms over the Gulf Waters and areas closer to the coast
(again, mainly south of I-10).
Max daytime temperatures for today and Thursday will be in the 90s
to around 100F. Drier low-levels will keep heat index values below
advisory criteria for the next couple of days. Nighttime low
temperatures will be in the mid 70s to around 80s.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023
Mid/upper level ridging moving into the Central Plains/TN Valley this
the weekend will help to keep above normal temperatures in place over
SE TX. While projections are just below Heat Advisory criteria as per
these latest runs, still can`t rule out the possibility by the end of
the weekend as onshore winds deepen. In the meantime, the forecast is
going to remain pretty much the same with most of the CWA staying hot
and dry. But, being on the southern periphery of the ridge, will also
maintain a slight chance of activity (via the seabreeze) for coastal/
near coastal counties through the weekend.
Heading into the start of next week, long-range models appear to stay
with the idea of increasing low-level moisture (PWs +2") as the ridge
aloft shifts a bit more to the E/NE. This should produce a deepening/
slightly strengthening onshore pattern across the region and might be
enough for more widespread POPs during the first half of next week.
Fingers crossed. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023
UTS/CXO terminals at MVFR with low CIGs. All other sites at VFR.
Expect UTS/CXO to improve to MVFR around 15Z. Winds will turn to
the S-SE today and strengthen to around 8-12 kts. There is a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon,
particularly with the sea/bay breeze, and primarily south of the
I-10 corridor. Some of these storms may produce strong VRB winds
and heavy rainfall.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023
No major changes with the ongoing forecast of mainly light/moderate
onshore winds through the period. Seas will remain around the 2-3ft
range with isolated late night to early morning activity across the
nearshore waters and the immediate coast. 41
biggerbyte wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 2:28 pm
Do any of you have an issue where the page auto scrolls? I'm trying to read posts, but the darn thing keeps moving.
Mine does that of and on, especially if I am in the process of making a post.
Isolated to widely scattered showers have developed mainly near
and west of LBX. Additional development is expected around 20-21Z
along and south of the I-10 corridor, so VCSH has been added to
IAH and sites southward through ~00Z. Winds expected to increase
at this sites as well in the afternoon with sustained winds around
10-12 knots and gusts up to 20 knots possible behind the sea
breeze. Convection dissipates after 00Z and winds trend towards
becoming light and variable. Another window for MVFR
ceilings/visibilities mainly between 11Z-14Z. Expect a very similar
pattern for Thursday.
I read the -pdo is starting to warm up off the west coast which is a result of el nino onset and that fact plus the negative soi should hopefully cause a better pattern for Texas. The gfs long term has been better lately.
TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Wed Jul 26, 2023 2:15 pm
I read the -pdo is starting to warm up off the west coast which is a result of el nino onset and that fact plus the negative soi should hopefully cause a better pattern for Texas. The gfs long term has been better lately.
Yep. Signs of hope.
That blob over the Florida Straits is revving up over 100°F water!
Thank fully those 100 degree readings are only in about 3-4ft deep in shallowe water, because if we had 100 degree temps in much deeper water, that would be doomsday for the gulf coast states, still unbelievable though
Yesterday the models had the blob of energy/ moisture by Florida moving our way, but now it looks like its going to get pulled north instead into florida, i dont see any real rain chances over the next 7-10 days here unfortunately
What’s up with this talk about the AMOC collapsing and causing massive climate changes? Hearing that if it comes to fruition we could be dealing with some big droughts here in the U.S. Here’s the link:
Pro Tip. Anything from weather.com will be highly left wing political and frankly can no longer be trusted. It takes careful analysis of any source these days and many can be led astray if you are not careful.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 26, 2023 2:57 pm
Thank fully those 100 degree readings are only in about 3-4ft deep in shallowe water, because if we had 100 degree temps in much deeper water, that would be doomsday for the gulf coast states, still unbelievable though
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Jul 26, 2023 8:36 pm
Pro Tip. Anything from weather.com will be highly left wing political and frankly can no longer be trusted. It takes careful analysis of any source these days and many can be led astray if you are not careful.
I gotcha. I never knew TWC was like that.. interesting.
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Jul 26, 2023 8:36 pm
Pro Tip. Anything from weather.com will be highly left wing political and frankly can no longer be trusted. It takes careful analysis of any source these days and many can be led astray if you are not careful.
Amen.. Almost everything these days has a political agenda. All of this climate change bs is just that. I'm sad some of our weather people have jumped into that train.
