DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Aug 03, 2023 2:32 pmI've never seen a winter that is killing our lawn and shrubs like this summer and 2011 - so bring it on!!!
But Feb 2021 (and Dec 2022 to a lesser extent) caused loads of damage to landscaping and lawns in just a matter of days (just 1-3). Just the instance of freezing cold alone is all it takes to kill a plant (i.e. or make it go dormant).
1-3 days of 100°F wouldn't do much. Instead, it has to last for much longer (weeks), while also being accompanied by lack of rain.
^ Same here. I’m cutting the grass every two weeks because it’s 8”-10” high by then. Everything is green and healthy but my water bill is ugggly lol. I see others with half or their whole yard brown/burnt and shrubs/plants suffering big time. I don’t understand how people can just watch their landscaping die and not care.
A long discussion from the NWS. Worth the read - some great climate details about College Station with some humor thrown in:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
Me: Can you just...give us a break please? Like you don`t HAVE to
show up tomorrow...
100+°F heat: Oh, but I do! I`ll come back tomorrow, and the next
day, and the next day, and the next day, and the next day...*phone
rings*...and the next day, and the next day, and the next day...
Unfortunately, the dangerous heat continues on as the midlevel high
("heatdome") continues to sit over the Southern Plains. Let`s do
another update on Aggieland. On Thursday, College Station reached
105°F, so they are now tied for second place for most consecutive
days at or above 100°F (26 days). There`s a 100% chance they`ll
reach above 100°F again today, so this streak will have second place
all to itself by this afternoon at 27 days. The first place spot
belongs to a 30 day streak from 1998, and there`s a pretty good
chance that they`ll not only reach that mark...there`s a possibility
that they`ll blow that streak out of the water with an even longer
streak (sad whoop! noises). PW values will be on the drier side this
afternoon ranging from 1.5"-1.8" (25th percentile: ~1.60"). Combine
that with plentiful subsidence aloft and 700mb/850mb temperatures at
their MAX percentiles, and we`ll have temperatures topping out in
the 100-104°F range this afternoon. Heat index values will remain
elevated as well ranging from 108-112°F. As a result, a Heat
Advisory remains in effect for all of Southeast TX through this
evening.
As far as rain chances go, we`re already seeing some isolated
showers develop off of the coast. There`s about a 15% chance that a
few spots south of I-10 could see a rogue shower. The subsidence
inversion layer aloft will be deeper today than it was yesterday
though, so definitely don`t place any bets on rain. The midlevel
high will elongate westward towards the Baja Peninsula by this
evening, and a new center will develop and strengthen over the SW
CONUS on Saturday. This won`t mean much for us though as the
heatdome remains close enough to still bring us plenty of heat.
Saturday will be a teensy bit drier than today with PW values
ranging from 1.4"-1.7", so expect temperatures to be about the same
or even a degree hotter. Expect to see our heat alert streak
continue as at least a Heat Advisory will be needed for Saturday.
Some temperatures in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods could approach
the 105°F threshold, so we`ll have to monitor for if an Excessive
Heat Warning will be needed for this region again. Rain chances
remain slim to none on Saturday as well.
With a Heat Advisory remaining in effect today and additional
advisories likely being needed the rest of the week, please continue
to keep heat safety at the top of your mind. Know the signs of heat
related illnesses, know the locations of the nearest cooling
centers, drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent
breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the
hottest part of the day, wear light clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS
ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about
your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your
hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Stay safe, stay cool, and
stay hydrated.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
An east-west oriented ridge will remain in control across the area
resulting in a continuation of the hot temperatures (inland highs
in the upper 90s to lower 100s leading to daily heat advisories
for much if not all of the area) along with little to no rain. At
the end of next week and on into next weekend, the ridge looks to
finally shift far enough westward resulting in our next best chance
of rain and lower temperatures.
Continue to practice heat safety!
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
Light southwesterly winds this morning will become southeasterly
around 9-12 knots by the afternoon hours. VFR conditions will
prevail throughout the entire TAF period, but intermittent MVFR
ceilings are possible for CLL during the early morning hours.
Small chance of an isolated shower, but confidence on anything
actually developing is too low to warrant putting VCSH in any of
the TAFs. Winds trend towards becoming light and variable again
during the overnight hours.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with 2 to 4 foot seas are expected to
prevail through the next several days. Small craft might need to exercise
caution during the overnight periods when the winds could increase to
around 15 knots. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.
42
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Due to the ongoing drought (some portions of Southeast TX in
moderate to severe drought), the soils/fuel range from dry to
critically dry. This is a result of the multiple extended periods of
excessive heat along with a lack of sufficient rainfall. As a
result, the Texas A&M Forest Service has outlined most of Southeast
TX in a high to very high fire danger risk for at least the next few
days. Coastal counties are the exception with a moderate forecast
fire danger. RH values in the afternoon hours will bottom out in the
25%-40% range north of the I-10 corridor. Although wind speeds won`t
meet our threshold for a Red Flag Warning, the soils and the air
will be dry enough to warrant extreme caution if working with
flammable material. We`ve already seen a 200+ acre wildfire develop
this week in San Jacinto County. With rain chances remaining slim to
none through next week, soils/fuel will continue to get drier.
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023
Mainly a persistence forecast for the next TAF period with VFR
conditions expected to prevail throughout. A slight increase in
wind speeds is expected this afternoon with gusts as high as
18-20kts possible. Winds should shift to the SE during this time,
becoming light and variable after sunset. Cloud cover should
remain fairly limited and cig issues do not appear to be a
concern. There is an isolated chance of a pop-up storm or two
along the coast this afternoon but confidence in this potential is
very low.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Aug 03, 2023 2:32 pmI've never seen a winter that is killing our lawn and shrubs like this summer and 2011 - so bring it on!!!
But Feb 2021 (and Dec 2022 to a lesser extent) caused loads of damage to landscaping and lawns in just a matter of days (just 1-3). Just the instance of freezing cold alone is all it takes to kill a plant (i.e. or make it go dormant).
1-3 days of 100°F wouldn't do much. Instead, it has to last for much longer (weeks), while also being accompanied by lack of rain.
Not in CLL. But we get about 12-13 nights below freezing a year.
Seems like the models keep pushing back any changes further away in the long term. This ridge may be the longest duration of this season and will see what happens later in the month. Both major models precip maps show the usual Texas 'donut hole' continuing for awhile.
TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Fri Aug 04, 2023 4:33 pm
Seems like the models keep pushing back any changes further away in the long term. This ridge may be the longest duration of this season and will see what happens later in the month. Both major models precip maps show the usual Texas 'donut hole' continuing for awhile.
Changes are coming mid month. Seems like a fairly safe bet for now. Late next week into the following week the Gulf opens up.
I would take that as well, but also with the ridge splitting a part, that could come back to bite us as well, 18z GFS shows a clear weakness between the two highs and does manage to spin up a weak depression by the yucatan peninsula at day 9
The problem is that the models keep rebuilding ridges over Texas. The coming next week was supposed to bring relief, but then that totally fizzled out. I fear the same will happen with the tropical/Gulf activity for day 8/9.
Are we truly cursed, or all the models biased/not handling shortwaves and such well? I'd take an encore of HARVEY over this drought, honestly. There, I said it.
user:null wrote: ↑Fri Aug 04, 2023 6:39 pm
The problem is that the models keep rebuilding ridges over Texas. The coming next week was supposed to bring relief, but then that totally fizzled out. I fear the same will happen with the tropical/Gulf activity for day 8/9.
Are we truly cursed, or all the models biased/not handling shortwaves and such well? I'd take an encore of HARVEY over this drought, honestly. There, I said it.
user:null wrote: ↑Fri Aug 04, 2023 6:39 pm
The problem is that the models keep rebuilding ridges over Texas. The coming next week was supposed to bring relief, but then that totally fizzled out. I fear the same will happen with the tropical/Gulf activity for day 8/9.
Are we truly cursed, or all the models biased/not handling shortwaves and such well? I'd take an encore of HARVEY over this drought, honestly. There, I said it.
Meh. I read some of Ptarmagin's posts earlier this summer, and he told me about places in Indian Subcontinent getting FEETS of rain just in their monsoon seasons alone. And it obviously has the benefits, given the sustenance of billions there. So I doubt a Harvey encore is that big of a deal, especially with the lessons's learned, as well as depending on rain spread.
Between the damn summer drought and the chinch bugs, I'm ready to just take a blow torch to my lawn and start over. I cannot win no matter how much I water or treat for those assholes.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 04, 2023 6:22 pm
I would take that as well, but also with the ridge splitting a part, that could come back to bite us as well, 18z GFS shows a clear weakness between the two highs and does manage to spin up a weak depression by the yucatan peninsula at day 9
I noticed the CMC and EURO both show a weakness developing over the state from a trough in the northern plains. They both show a tropical wave in the central Gulf around the time that the weakness develops also.
Id rather stay with drought conditions than have a repeat of harvey
