Yep, the reason for the low QPF the models are showing has more to do with a lack of organization more than anything.If the models were showing a legit TC those rainfall totals would be higher.But as an open wave/tropical low usually will only produce excessive rainfall in a localized area.As they usually lack the organization and strength to sustain feeder bands over a sizeable area,like a TC can.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 5:17 pmEverything we see at this range is being taken with a grain of salt. That being said, this isn't the same scenario as Don. The model - taken verbatim, does has some dry air over the state, but isn't the primary reason for relatively low QPF.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 13, 2023 3:23 pmThe 12z Euro has a TD or a very weak TS coming towards us but it only gives us 1-2” of rain… so not much moisture with it. So yeah, the Don thing makes sense but let’s hope we can at least get that. But I wouldn’t get your hopes up that something even comes here yet. That’s a long ways out.
At this point even a tropical wave would be nice.But we would need a TC to get any real "drought busting" rains more than likely.
