2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[weatherguy425]

Gotta love it...half think we will half don't lol

I think everyone is being realistic with the present uncertainty and no one is fully comiting to anything just yet. That said, odds favor the middle and lower Texas coast for widespread rain.

[Rip76]

Gotta love it...half think we will half don't lol

I think everyone is being realistic with the present uncertainty and no one is fully comiting to anything just yet. That said, odds favor the middle and lower Texas coast for widespread rain.

Yes, I do not see how this couldn’t be the case.

I mean that high has been parked there for 2 months or so.
Almost every run shows it riding South under the ridge.

[davidiowx]

Nuke the high pressure!

[Rip76]

Nuke the high pressure!

Hmmmm.

[tireman4]

I am not a professional met, I am just Wxman 57's gardener, but I would think with the rising PWATS (2.0 and above), the unstableness from the Gulf and the tropical training effect, this could be widespread in a large area. That being said, I do think Mr. 57 is right on the money. A more concentrated system, the less the chances of widespread rainfall.

[walsean1]

I am not a professional met, I am just Wxman 57's gardener, but I would think with the rising PWATS (2.0 and above), the unstableness from the Gulf and the tropical training effect, this could be widespread in a large area. That being said, I do think Mr. 57 is right on the money. A more concentrated system, the less the chances of widespread rainfall.

So the Drought will continue basically. This is brutal. We SE Texas does get rain it Will unfortunately come all at once so we will need to be ready for it when it does come

[brazoriatx]

Looking like a tex/mex

[tireman4]

I am not a professional met, I am just Wxman 57's gardener, but I would think with the rising PWATS (2.0 and above), the unstableness from the Gulf and the tropical training effect, this could be widespread in a large area. That being said, I do think Mr. 57 is right on the money. A more concentrated system, the less the chances of widespread rainfall.

So the Drought will continue basically. This is brutal. We SE Texas does get rain it Will unfortunately come all at once so we will need to be ready for it when it does come
[/quote

Well, first, I think we should hold off any ideas of where, when or what this will be until at least the weekend. To speculate this far in advance is just fool hardy. Second, the HGX NWS has us as 20/30 percent on Monday and 50 percent on Tuesday. That is a placeholder to see what happens. Lastly, I think with the abundance of tropical moisture and lower temperatures for producing thunderstorms/showers, it might be more widespread than you think. Is this a drought buster? I am thinking no, but some folks will get rain.


"With the ridge meandering over the Midwest, better chances for
showers and thunderstorms is expected late Monday into Tuesday as
a broad area of low pressure moves across the Western Gulf of
Mexico and into the Texas coasts. This feature will bring in
abundant low level moisture into the region; The latest model run
(00Z) shows PWs of around 2.20 to 2.60 inches pushing into
Southeast Texas throughout the day Tuesday, which will hopefully
help bring in some much needed rain. Associated vort max`s could
move over our southern and western portions Tuesday evening, which
could keep scattered activity for those areas through Tuesday
night. Confidence in regards to the development of this low, along
with where exactly it will track, remains low at this time. As
per the latest from NHC (2 AM bulletin), chance of formation is
still 30% through the next 7 days. Regardless of formation or not,
if the forecast remains on track for the rainfall, we could see
cooler temperatures on Tuesday - the highs are currently
forecasted to be in the mid to upper 90s for much of the area."

[TexasBreeze]

Not associated with our weather, southern California may get a tropical system before we do this season. They are under a tropical storm watch there!

[tireman4]

And while we monitor the Gulf, history is being made...

[tireman4]

History being made...

From the NHC...

"Based on the forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for
portions of southern California. This is the first time NHC has
issued a watch for that region. Supplemental soundings (weather
balloons) are being launched by much of the National Weather Service
offices across the western U.S. This effort is highly appreciated
as the data should help provide a better assessment of the
environment and steering pattern ahead of Hilary."

[Cpv17]

Looking like a tex/mex

There’s still plenty of time for it to shift north and even if this one doesn’t benefit us there’s still a solid 4-5 weeks left of hurricane season for Texas.

[DoctorMu]

I am not a professional met, I am just Wxman 57's gardener, but I would think with the rising PWATS (2.0 and above), the unstableness from the Gulf and the tropical training effect, this could be widespread in a large area. That being said, I do think Mr. 57 is right on the money. A more concentrated system, the less the chances of widespread rainfall.

Get out your popcorn for popcorn for diurnal daytime heating showers.

Roll the dice. Hope we see a few north of Navasota.

[DoctorMu]

And while we monitor the Gulf, history is being made...

Right. Hillary is clearly going to stay in the blue states.

[tireman4]

Hurricane Hilary...

[brazoriatx]

Los Angeles could use some good cleaning

[walsean1]

And while we monitor the Gulf, history is being made...

I called my aunt who lives in Chula Vista, California which is about 10 min from the Mexican Border and she said it has never flooded there. She does not get out as much but I don’t think they understand that it is rare to see this type of stir in this area that may still pack some wind gust. Hopefully the cooler water will knock down the storm intensity. It was 75 degrees there while we are baking at 100 plus degrees here

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff sent at 7:30am — Not looking to great for most of us unfortunately:

“Low chance of tropical cyclone formation remains possible over the western Gulf early to mid next week.

A tropical wave axis currently moving into the southeastern Bahamas will continue westward and reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend. As high pressure over Texas lifts northward and centers over the Midwest early next week this wave will continue westward and approach the Texas coast in the Tues/Wed period.

Overall, there has been little change with respect to development chances from the global models or their ensemble output. Some of the guidance closes off a broad weak surface low over the western Gulf while other maintain a wave axis. The possibilities range from a tropical wave axis, tropical depression, or weak tropical storm moving inland along the lower or middle Texas coast Tues or Wed. Conditions appear to be generally favorable for some slow development over the central or western Gulf, but there is dry air lurking along the US Gulf coast that could wrap into any developing system and there may be stronger wind shear over the western Gulf from the outflow aloft of powerful Hurricane Hilary in the eastern Pacific Ocean. With that said, the system will be moving over warm sea surface temperatures and systems, especially in the NW Gulf under the right conditions can tighten up just prior to landfall. This may be a situation where whatever is going to happen with any development occurs very near the coast.

Regardless of development, a surge of tropical moisture will move into the Texas coast as early as late Monday, but more likely Tues/Wed. For now, the greatest moisture looks to remain along and south of the I-10 corridor with areas north of I-10 still under the influence of the high pressure ridge over the Midwest. There will likely be a strong gradient in rain chances from south to north over the area next week with the potential for some desperately needed rainfall across the coastal locations. Will have to see how far inland the moisture and rain/bands are able to make it against the subsidence of the high to the north.

The National Hurricane Center currently is maintaining the 30% chance of tropical cyclone development with this feature next week.

As always, it is best to monitor forecasts for any changes over the next 2-4 days as this system progresses into the Gulf.”

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[don]

Looking more and more like this system will stay far enough south of us to not give us beneficial rains.I'm happy for those in South Texas though.

[jasons2k]

We need to keep an eye on this one.