2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Rip76]

Lindner-
Ugh


40% of tropical development early to mid next week in the western Gulf.

Unfortunately, the trend is to limit rain chances to the immediate coast and those areas across S TX and the coastal bend.

Still hoping the ridge will give enough ground to give parts of the area at least a chance, but it doesn’t look good.

[Stratton20]

And the euro is back with the pacific crossover system lol

[brazoriatx]

I blame this on 57..he wanted it hot and dry..well he got his wish lmao...hell he ALWAYS gets what he wants..lol I'm joking of course...




Not really....


But maybe...

[jasons2k]

Lindner-
Ugh


40% of tropical development early to mid next week in the western Gulf.

Unfortunately, the trend is to limit rain chances to the immediate coast and those areas across S TX and the coastal bend.

Still hoping the ridge will give enough ground to give parts of the area at least a chance, but it doesn’t look good.

Jeff is one of the best. Bullish at times but in this new crazy climate regime, bullish usually works out well for him.

[tireman4]

Lindner-
Ugh


40% of tropical development early to mid next week in the western Gulf.

Unfortunately, the trend is to limit rain chances to the immediate coast and those areas across S TX and the coastal bend.

Still hoping the ridge will give enough ground to give parts of the area at least a chance, but it doesn’t look good.

Jeff is one of the best. Bullish at times but in this new crazy climate regime, bullish usually works out well for him.

Jason,

I would agree. He is right on top of things.

[jasons2k]

And the euro is back with the pacific crossover system lol

Yep, and a trough quickly grabs the system near the Antilles.

This is going to be a wild, wacky season before it’s over.

[user:null]

Keep in mind everyone in the state needs the rain.Whether it came to SE Texas or not,someone in the state was gonna loose out on beneficial rains regardless.It just happens to be us this time LOL.

Meh, there's no point anymore. This land is god-forsaken and cursed, might as well be abandoned. Good trends are impossible, they never manifest: it's always bad trends.

The tracks further north towards Houston shown in earlier days still would have brought ample rains to wide swaths of South Texas. Meanwhile, this South Texas track is going to rob not only (almost) all of Texas, but even much of Louisiana/northern Gulf Coast.

[Stratton20]

Quite a big disagreement in the operational GFS vs its ensembles, OP GFS goes into N Mexico but the 18z GEFS is pretty well far north of its op run, more clustered around corpus or just north of it, interesting disagreement, a track near corpus would at least improve rain chances in se texas a bit more

RGEM coming in further north as well fwiw
So definitely a stark difference in some of the 18z Guidance, maybe we dont wanna write this one off yet
Big shift North on the 18z GEFS

[Rip76]

Just when I’m done with you RGEM you pull me back in.

[Cpv17]

Just when I’m done with you RGEM you pull me back in.

I’ve never gave up on this system. Been tracking the tropics for too many years now.

[tireman4]

Just when I’m done with you RGEM you pull me back in.

You just can't quit RGEM

[sambucol]

Do you think we are starting to see a trend more along the middle of the coast now?

[brazoriatx]

With it up to 50% now I'm assuming tomorrow it would be tagged a invest and hopefully we can get some real model runs on it

[Rip76]

I think it would have to be tomorrow.

[don]

Quite a big disagreement in the operational GFS vs its ensembles, OP GFS goes into N Mexico but the 18z GEFS is pretty well far north of its op run, more clustered around corpus or just north of it, interesting disagreement, a track near corpus would at least improve rain chances in se texas a bit more

RGEM coming in further north as well fwiw
So definitely a stark difference in some of the 18z Guidance, maybe we dont wanna write this one off yet
Big shift North on the 18z GEFS

Yep GEFS switched back to the middle Texas coast.

[Rip76]

‘57
Layin’ it down.

Galveston will be on the "death ridge" side. "No soup (rain) for you!"

NHC will probably be up to 60% by sunrise and 70% tomorrow afternoon/evening. I'm thinking they'll go 80% or higher Sunday. Little doubt it will be at least a depression before it moves inland into lower TX coast. I don't expect any rain as far north a Houston. Maybe just a teaser shower. We'll start advisories tomorrow afternoon after I look at 12Z guidance. Lots of calls scheduled already for Hilary & what will be 90L soon.

[brazoriatx]

Well there it is...from God's mouth....next lol Stratton offered a little hope but 57 shot that down quickly lol

[vci_guy2003]

LOL. Has 57 ever gotten egg on his face?

[brazoriatx]

LOL. Has 57 ever gotten egg on his face?

I'm sure he has. He won't admit it tho

[tireman4]

LOL. Has 57 ever gotten egg on his face?

Yes...lol...he has whiffed before.