August 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
txsnowmaker
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Aug 18, 2023 12:02 pm Heating up.

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With the exception of the orange area in the Gulf, nothing that will impact the United States, per ABC 13…

“All of these would track to the northwest with no threat to land.“

https://abc13.com/hurricane-season-trop ... /13303907/
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tireman4
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txsnowmaker wrote: Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:25 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Aug 18, 2023 12:02 pm Heating up.

Image
With the exception of the orange area in the Gulf, nothing that will impact the United States, per ABC 13…

“All of these would track to the northwest with no threat to land.“

https://abc13.com/hurricane-season-trop ... /13303907/
It is my opinion and I am just a normal average Joe ( and will all due respect to the fine young men and women on Channel 13), it is WAY too early to make a judgement call on that. The NHC would not make calls like that, this early. That is my opinion.
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Rip76
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Driving from the Woodlands to Tomball on 99, I see a haze I can almost taste 😀.
Is this still the Saharan dust in our area?
Pas_Bon
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Rip76 wrote: Fri Aug 18, 2023 3:24 pm Driving from the Woodlands to Tomball on 99, I see a haze I can almost taste 😀.
Is this still the Saharan dust in our area?

It’s ash and smoke from everything here now spontaneously combusting.
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tireman4
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From Matt Lanza

We have a Friday afternoon update on Hilary's potential. Not to dismiss forecast uncertainties, but for all intents & purposes, folks in the California desert and perhaps portions of W Arizona & Nevada should *expect* to experience a historic rain event.
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Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Aug 18, 2023 4:08 pm From Matt Lanza

We have a Friday afternoon update on Hilary's potential. Not to dismiss forecast uncertainties, but for all intents & purposes, folks in the California desert and perhaps portions of W Arizona & Nevada should *expect* to experience a historic rain event.
That’s a years worth of rainfall for them, if not more I bet.
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DoctorMu
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Pas_Bon wrote: Fri Aug 18, 2023 3:47 pm
Rip76 wrote: Fri Aug 18, 2023 3:24 pm Driving from the Woodlands to Tomball on 99, I see a haze I can almost taste 😀.
Is this still the Saharan dust in our area?

It’s ash and smoke from everything here now spontaneously combusting.
haha. Probably.

The haze is smoke from Canadian wildfires, funneled as the "dry front" passed through.
user:null
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There MAY be another chance if we miss impacts from the early next week system: later next week around Friday, there looks to be an axis of moisture perlocating from the Carolinas through northern Gulf into SE Texas, which could combine with another inverted trough slated to move through and give better scattered coverage through the area lasting into the weekend.

This is the 18zGFS.
Cromagnum
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Not looking good for us. Models currently keep the stupid death ridge firmly in place and bury this system at the Mexico border. I wouldn't hold out hope for any rain at all.
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 9:24 am Not looking good for us. Models currently keep the stupid death ridge firmly in place and bury this system at the Mexico border. I wouldn't hold out hope for any rain at all.
Still needed rainfall for *parts of Texas and still better for the bigger picture. Also, lets keep an wye on the bigger pattern here; more opportunities for non-tropical rain in the long range and we’ll need to keep an eye on the BOC and western Caribbean.
Cromagnum
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Sure but any tropical systems that miss us south or east tend to just make it even hotter here. It's so parched at my house that my fence is falling down and I have to let my dogs out on leashes so they don't hurt their legs in the gigantic cracks in the yard. They are large enough to catch my own ankle if I'm not paying attention.
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jasons2k
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Lucy strikes again.

I’m so tired of Texas summers.
Cromagnum
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jasons2k wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 11:53 am Lucy strikes again.

I’m so tired of Texas summers.
Worthless season. Just kills everything, wrecks foundations and fences, and too hot to do a damned thing for 4 months.
davidiowx
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 12:02 pm
jasons2k wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 11:53 am Lucy strikes again.

I’m so tired of Texas summers.
Worthless season. Just kills everything, wrecks foundations and fences, and too hot to do a damned thing for 4 months.
Seriously. I’ve seen so many houses with tunnels under them lately. Despite watering as much as a I can and keeping my grass green for the most part, my oaks are shedding leaves. My back gate post literally blew down in some light wind taking the concrete with it. It just came right out of the hole in the clay!

I can’t stand this suppressing heat every year for half a year. :roll:
weatherguy425
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 11:51 am Sure but any tropical systems that miss us south or east tend to just make it even hotter here. It's so parched at my house that my fence is falling down and I have to let my dogs out on leashes so they don't hurt their legs in the gigantic cracks in the yard. They are large enough to catch my own ankle if I'm not paying attention.
Droughts are rough. Very depressing form of weather. However, the seasonal change has begun. El Nino is underway and medium to long range models aren’t as depressing as they have been.

A tropical cyclone landfalling east of us *can influence our weather for the hotter - the correlation isn’t as strong for a strike to our south.
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Rip76
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I wonder how the winds from whatever this will be, will help to fuel fires in the area.
davidiowx
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I’m sure fire hazards will be in the increase with higher winds and I think Lindner mentioned that this morning.

Will we at least get some cloud cover? Anything helps LOL
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Louisiana has been sharing our pain quite a bit so far this August. Alexandria just recorded a new record high at 110°F.
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tireman4
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Fun fact, Average high this month..102.6...yea!
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