Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 11:36 am
Ar this point im never believing another model showing rain until el nino effects really start to kick in, this summer has been a joke and the models nothing more than a massive tease every time, the fact that areas like San Diego are going to see more rain in one day than we have seen all summer is actually embarrassing, i cant blame people for wanting to move out of texas with this weather
Just can’t get excited about a Day 8-14 solution That said, El Nino gears are already turning and we *do need to keep a *casual eye on the BOC.
Yes they are. They are in full operation mode. We will see the effects this Fall.
brazoriatx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 12:11 pm
Whats this talk about the boc?
The potential of an EPAC crossover. Some of the models have been hinting at it.
Some solutions do show a true crossover. But, it’s a little more complicated than that and different operational models are spinning things up for different reasons. That said, longer range data has suggested wetter anomalies and lower pressure anomalies across the southwest Gulf for some time now. Now that the GFS, ECMWF, etc. operational models are in range - they too have occasionally shown some activity. That said, wind shear continues to be above average across much of the Gulf. This is a *general pattern and just a general area to watch for the next 2-3 weeks. Don’t get sad or ready to flee the state if it doesn’t workout.
brazoriatx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 12:11 pm
Whats this talk about the boc?
The potential of an EPAC crossover. Some of the models have been hinting at it.
Some solutions do show a true crossover. But, it’s a little more complicated than that and different operational models are spinning things up for different reasons. That said, longer range data has suggested wetter anomalies and lower pressure anomalies across the southwest Gulf for some time now. Now that the GFS, ECMWF, etc. operational models are in range - they too have occasionally shown some activity. That said, wind shear continues to be above average across much of the Gulf. This is a *general pattern and just a general area to watch for the next 2-3 weeks. Don’t get sad or ready to flee the state if it doesn’t workout.
If something does cross over and can avoid the Yucatán Peninsula, it’ll have a much better chance. I think this is a key point.
Cpv17 lol it even has a hurricane in the eastern gulf, its actually very interesting to see the Euro be the aggressive model now, and the GFS not so much, its like the scripts have flipped lol
crossover occurs in about 5-6 days so really not even fantasy range, thats a pretty respectable time frame
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 2:39 pm
Cpv17 lol it even has a hurricane in the eastern gulf, its actually very interesting to see the Euro be the aggressive model now, and the GFS not so much, its like the scripts have flipped lol
crossover occurs in about 5-6 days so really not even fantasy range, thats a pretty respectable time frame
The potential of an EPAC crossover. Some of the models have been hinting at it.
Some solutions do show a true crossover. But, it’s a little more complicated than that and different operational models are spinning things up for different reasons. That said, longer range data has suggested wetter anomalies and lower pressure anomalies across the southwest Gulf for some time now. Now that the GFS, ECMWF, etc. operational models are in range - they too have occasionally shown some activity. That said, wind shear continues to be above average across much of the Gulf. This is a *general pattern and just a general area to watch for the next 2-3 weeks. Don’t get sad or ready to flee the state if it doesn’t workout.
If something does cross over and can avoid the Yucatán Peninsula, it’ll have a much better chance. I think this is a key point.
But, remember, it isn't exactly a clean crossover that is being modeled on all runs. Now is the time to focus on the general pattern; lower pressures in the BOC and western Caribbean. The upcoming steering pattern is very complicated, should something even form... hence the spread in ensembles.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 2:39 pm
Cpv17 lol it even has a hurricane in the eastern gulf, its actually very interesting to see the Euro be the aggressive model now, and the GFS not so much, its like the scripts have flipped lol
crossover occurs in about 5-6 days so really not even fantasy range, thats a pretty respectable time frame
Some solutions do show a true crossover. But, it’s a little more complicated than that and different operational models are spinning things up for different reasons. That said, longer range data has suggested wetter anomalies and lower pressure anomalies across the southwest Gulf for some time now. Now that the GFS, ECMWF, etc. operational models are in range - they too have occasionally shown some activity. That said, wind shear continues to be above average across much of the Gulf. This is a *general pattern and just a general area to watch for the next 2-3 weeks. Don’t get sad or ready to flee the state if it doesn’t workout.
If something does cross over and can avoid the Yucatán Peninsula, it’ll have a much better chance. I think this is a key point.
But, remember, it isn't exactly a clean crossover that is being modeled on all runs. Now is the time to focus on the general pattern; lower pressures in the BOC and western Caribbean. The upcoming steering pattern is very complicated, should something even form... hence the spread in ensembles.
(back away from individual model runs)
Oh yeah, I always focus on ensembles in the medium to long range but it’s good to have some support from the OP as well.
That said, El Nino gears are already turning and we *do need to keep a *casual eye on the BOC.
That said, El Nino gears are already turning and we *do need to keep a *casual eye on the BOC.
