August 2023
Bring on the rain!
Some chatter over at S2K suggest possibilties that this could still work out...
*RAIN DANCE INTENSIFIES*
*RAIN DANCE INTENSIFIES*
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 221210
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
710 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Tropical Storm Harold is located around 240 miles to the south of
Galveston and is expected to continue to move west-northwest at
around 18 mph today. Harold is expected to make landfall by midday
today along the South Texas coasts. Passing showers and
thunderstorms associated to the outer rain bands of Harold is
expected to move across the coastal Gulf waters as well as the
southern portions of Southeast Texas from time to time throughout
the day today. Conditions inland will also be breezy, in
particular along areas near Matagorda Bay and areas south of I-10.
A Tropical Storm Watch will continue in effect for Coastal
Jackson, Coastal Matagorda, and Matagorda Islands today. Overall,
impacts to Southeast Texas will be minimal and mostly confined to
coastal and offshore areas. Please continue to monitor the latest
forecasts for additional information and updates.
The main concern for today will remain to be dangerously hot
conditions for much of Southeast Texas, as well as elevated to
critical fire weather conditions for the Piney Woods and Brazos
Valley. The highs today will range between 99 to 107 degrees F
for areas north of I-10, 95 to 100 degrees south of I-10, and 92
to 95 degrees for the coastal regions and Barrier Islands. Even
with slightly lower temperatures, the added low level moisture
associated to Harold, will result in heat indices between 108-112
for much of the region. Thus, a Heat Advisory will continue in
effect for all of Southeast Texas. Make sure to continue to
practice heat safety if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.
For Wednesday, lingering moisture could result in isolated
showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon hours.
Chances are less than 20% and if any storm does develop, it may
along and around the sea breeze. Temperatures are expected to rise
again, and highs will be back in the 103 and 107 degrees F range
with heat indices of 109 to 115 degrees F. Thus, the Heat Advisory
will likely be extended and an Excessive Heat Warning could also
be issued. Stay tuned for more.
Cotto (24)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
.LONG TERM...
Dangerous heat and fire weather conditions continue to be the main
weather features across Southeast TX through the long term period.
The strong mid to upper lvl ridge of high pressure parked over the
central CONUS will slightly weaken and shift west towards the end of
the week. Heights will slightly fall, however, temperatures won`t
change much. In fact, deterministic models show 850mb temperatures
into the 25 to 29 degC range for Thursday, resulting in well-above
normal temperatures. Therefore, another day with widespread triple-
digits temperatures are expected on Thursday. As we head into the
weekend, temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler as the center
of the upper ridge moves across the Desert Southwest. Nonetheless,
the heat continues through the entire period with temperatures at or
exceeding 100 degF with peak heat indices greater than 108 degF.
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories will likely continue.
Regarding precipitation chances, some weak shortwaves embedded in
the northwest flow aloft may result in chances of rain/storm, if
they overcome the cap. Have continued with daily chances of
rain/storms (generally 15 to 25 percent) through the end of the
medium range.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Rainbands associated with Tropical Storm Harold will continue to
move over the region today. The best precipitation chances will be
from IAH to all coastal terminals. Isolated thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out; however, have only kept VCSH in TAFs given medium
confidence in occurrence. Moderate east to southeast winds with
gusts up to 25-30 knots can be expected through early evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through most of the period
with the exception of brief MVFR conditions near storms.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Tropical Storm Harold, located around 240 miles south of Galveston
will continue to move west-northwest at around 18 mph. Harold is
expected to make landfall over the South Texas coast around midday
today. Though the center of this system will track to our south,
elevated winds and seas are still anticipated in the upper Texas
coastal waters. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf
waters south of Sargent. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
Matagorda Bay. Periods of unsettled weather are likely, especially
offshore and toward the Matagorda Bay area. Conditions will
improve tonight into Wednesday morning as winds and seas subside.
We trend back to a summertime pattern mid week into early next
week. Expect light winds and seas of 3 feet or less.
Cotto (24)
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023
Hot weather, low relative humidity, moderate winds and very dry
fuels and vegetation could potentially lead to critical fire weather
conditions across portions of SE TX today. The greatest risk for
elevated to critical fire conditions are over the Brazos Valley and
the Piney Woods area. Therefore, have continued with a Red Flag
Warning for our northern counties through this evening. Any fires
that develop will likely spread. Remember, burn bans remain in
effect across the entire SE TX.
JM
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
A Tropical Storm Watch will continue in effect for Coastal
Jackson, Coastal Matagorda, and Matagorda Islands today.
Tropical Storm Harold is located around 240 miles to the south of
Galveston and is expected to continue to move west-northwest at
around 18 mph today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph.
Harold is expected to make landfall by midday today along the
South Texas coasts.
The primary threats will remain highest for marine interests on the
Gulf of Mexico below Freeport. Those around the Matagorda Bay are
still advised to be prepared for tropical storm conditions through
late this morning and be ready for any last-minute, unanticipated
changes to the forecast.
Expect passing showers and thunderstorms associated to the outer
rain bands of Harold from time to time today. Conditions inland
will be breezy, in particular along areas near Matagorda Bay and
areas south of I-10.
Cotto (24)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 102 78 104 80 / 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 100 81 103 82 / 30 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 94 82 / 60 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ335-336-436.
Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199.
High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ330.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ335-355-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from late tonight through
Wednesday morning for GMZ335-350-355-370-375.
Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ350-370.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Cotto
FXUS64 KHGX 221210
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
710 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Tropical Storm Harold is located around 240 miles to the south of
Galveston and is expected to continue to move west-northwest at
around 18 mph today. Harold is expected to make landfall by midday
today along the South Texas coasts. Passing showers and
thunderstorms associated to the outer rain bands of Harold is
expected to move across the coastal Gulf waters as well as the
southern portions of Southeast Texas from time to time throughout
the day today. Conditions inland will also be breezy, in
particular along areas near Matagorda Bay and areas south of I-10.
A Tropical Storm Watch will continue in effect for Coastal
Jackson, Coastal Matagorda, and Matagorda Islands today. Overall,
impacts to Southeast Texas will be minimal and mostly confined to
coastal and offshore areas. Please continue to monitor the latest
forecasts for additional information and updates.
The main concern for today will remain to be dangerously hot
conditions for much of Southeast Texas, as well as elevated to
critical fire weather conditions for the Piney Woods and Brazos
Valley. The highs today will range between 99 to 107 degrees F
for areas north of I-10, 95 to 100 degrees south of I-10, and 92
to 95 degrees for the coastal regions and Barrier Islands. Even
with slightly lower temperatures, the added low level moisture
associated to Harold, will result in heat indices between 108-112
for much of the region. Thus, a Heat Advisory will continue in
effect for all of Southeast Texas. Make sure to continue to
practice heat safety if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.
For Wednesday, lingering moisture could result in isolated
showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon hours.
Chances are less than 20% and if any storm does develop, it may
along and around the sea breeze. Temperatures are expected to rise
again, and highs will be back in the 103 and 107 degrees F range
with heat indices of 109 to 115 degrees F. Thus, the Heat Advisory
will likely be extended and an Excessive Heat Warning could also
be issued. Stay tuned for more.
Cotto (24)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
.LONG TERM...
Dangerous heat and fire weather conditions continue to be the main
weather features across Southeast TX through the long term period.
The strong mid to upper lvl ridge of high pressure parked over the
central CONUS will slightly weaken and shift west towards the end of
the week. Heights will slightly fall, however, temperatures won`t
change much. In fact, deterministic models show 850mb temperatures
into the 25 to 29 degC range for Thursday, resulting in well-above
normal temperatures. Therefore, another day with widespread triple-
digits temperatures are expected on Thursday. As we head into the
weekend, temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler as the center
of the upper ridge moves across the Desert Southwest. Nonetheless,
the heat continues through the entire period with temperatures at or
exceeding 100 degF with peak heat indices greater than 108 degF.
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories will likely continue.
Regarding precipitation chances, some weak shortwaves embedded in
the northwest flow aloft may result in chances of rain/storm, if
they overcome the cap. Have continued with daily chances of
rain/storms (generally 15 to 25 percent) through the end of the
medium range.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Rainbands associated with Tropical Storm Harold will continue to
move over the region today. The best precipitation chances will be
from IAH to all coastal terminals. Isolated thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out; however, have only kept VCSH in TAFs given medium
confidence in occurrence. Moderate east to southeast winds with
gusts up to 25-30 knots can be expected through early evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through most of the period
with the exception of brief MVFR conditions near storms.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Tropical Storm Harold, located around 240 miles south of Galveston
will continue to move west-northwest at around 18 mph. Harold is
expected to make landfall over the South Texas coast around midday
today. Though the center of this system will track to our south,
elevated winds and seas are still anticipated in the upper Texas
coastal waters. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf
waters south of Sargent. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
Matagorda Bay. Periods of unsettled weather are likely, especially
offshore and toward the Matagorda Bay area. Conditions will
improve tonight into Wednesday morning as winds and seas subside.
We trend back to a summertime pattern mid week into early next
week. Expect light winds and seas of 3 feet or less.
Cotto (24)
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023
Hot weather, low relative humidity, moderate winds and very dry
fuels and vegetation could potentially lead to critical fire weather
conditions across portions of SE TX today. The greatest risk for
elevated to critical fire conditions are over the Brazos Valley and
the Piney Woods area. Therefore, have continued with a Red Flag
Warning for our northern counties through this evening. Any fires
that develop will likely spread. Remember, burn bans remain in
effect across the entire SE TX.
JM
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
A Tropical Storm Watch will continue in effect for Coastal
Jackson, Coastal Matagorda, and Matagorda Islands today.
Tropical Storm Harold is located around 240 miles to the south of
Galveston and is expected to continue to move west-northwest at
around 18 mph today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph.
Harold is expected to make landfall by midday today along the
South Texas coasts.
The primary threats will remain highest for marine interests on the
Gulf of Mexico below Freeport. Those around the Matagorda Bay are
still advised to be prepared for tropical storm conditions through
late this morning and be ready for any last-minute, unanticipated
changes to the forecast.
Expect passing showers and thunderstorms associated to the outer
rain bands of Harold from time to time today. Conditions inland
will be breezy, in particular along areas near Matagorda Bay and
areas south of I-10.
Cotto (24)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 102 78 104 80 / 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 100 81 103 82 / 30 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 94 82 / 60 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ335-336-436.
Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199.
High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ330.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ335-355-375.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from late tonight through
Wednesday morning for GMZ335-350-355-370-375.
Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ350-370.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Cotto
No rain so far, but at least we had a bright orange and pink sunrise this morning on the SW side of town.
Some folks in the usual coastal locations.
- Attachments
-
Southern/coastal viewing area has been good. Galveston Island picked up around ~.13 so far
The stream of cells is just south of Port Arthur extending back to south of Houma/New Orleans in Louisiana. So, we'll see if Fort Bend and Harris counties can get some action later today (especially as land friction disrupts Harold's circulation).
The stream of cells is just south of Port Arthur extending back to south of Houma/New Orleans in Louisiana. So, we'll see if Fort Bend and Harris counties can get some action later today (especially as land friction disrupts Harold's circulation).
Its so dry I saw a lizard trying to get water from my house spigot the other day, but I did get hit with a good 10-15 rain drops yesterday.
One tiny little shower early this morning at the house. Got the driveway wet and knocked the dust down. Hoping for more but not optimistic.
-
weatherguy425
- Pro Met
- Posts: 830
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:45 pm
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
- Contact:
A few very efficient rain producers out there. Best chance of scattered rain may actually occur after landfall.
- Attachments
-
MCD for our southwestern area near up to Sargent and Lake Jackson mentions possibility of tornado spin ups.
We need the recent (12z) FV3 Hi-Res verify!
*RAIN DANCE INTENSIFIES*
*RAIN DANCE INTENSIFIES*
There was a wildfire yesterday that burned 60 acres in Montgomery County
https://www.khou.com/amp/article/news/l ... 1f7a8230ab
https://www.khou.com/amp/article/news/l ... 1f7a8230ab
I-10 barrier starting to see some chinks! Flare-ups trying to occur!
*RAIN DANCE INTENSIFIES*
*RAIN DANCE INTENSIFIES*
Last edited by user:null on Tue Aug 22, 2023 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The cumulus field is growing more vertical (building). Maybe just enough moisture combined with the heat to set off some scattered showers as the day progresses. 
-
Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
I got nothing, the center of this Death Ridge is over me.
It's working djmike! Starting to see some activity in Acadiana/Golden Triangle where nothing was forecasted for today.
*RAIN DANCE INTENSIFIES*
*RAIN DANCE INTENSIFIES*
Im out of breath dancing but will keep on! The sporadic cloud cover is a nice change for today. High today in Beaumont is forecasted 98! Woohoo! Thats a cold front compared to what it has been! Unfortunately it all comes roaring back to the dull hot usual starting tomorrow.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Looks like we got a pretty good shower that passed over my house earlier according to the radar. I’ll check the gauge when I get home but it looks like I got my first measurable rain in about 3 months.
-
AtascocitaWX
- Posts: 92
- Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:29 pm
- Location: Atascocita,Tx
- Contact:
Its raining in Atascocita.!!!