2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[weatherguy425]

weatherguy425 how would franklin effect troughing?

Position, strength, etc. could all impact troughing and vice versa. A good discussion, below.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... caribbean/

[tireman4]

GFS also was brutal with Harold until it was clear it would develop.GFS has been AWFUL for genesis this year. It should not be used for genesis except for comedy
-- Derek Ortt (@DerekOrtt) August 22, 2023

From Derek Ott, a well-known very knowledgeable Met many of us have known for a LONG time.

[jasons2k]

weatherguy425 how would franklin effect troughing?

Position, strength, etc. could all impact troughing and vice versa. A good discussion, below.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... caribbean/

Euro shows the monsoonal trough lifting with time so we may want to keep an eye around the Yucatan this weekend and into next week.

I see on satellite some convection already off the eastern coast of Nicaragua.

[weatherguy425]

weatherguy425 how would franklin effect troughing?

Position, strength, etc. could all impact troughing and vice versa. A good discussion, below.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... caribbean/

Euro shows the monsoonal trough lifting with time so we may want to keep an eye around the Yucatan this weekend and into next week.

I see on satellite some convection already off the eastern coast of Nicaragua.

To be clear, Levi is talking about the monsoonal trough being lifted (as Jason2K) noted. But, positioning of the trough across the eastern US will also be vital in steering (or not steering) whatever does (if) develops.

[Stratton20]

Im wondering if the NHC will put out a yellow lemonade in the NW Caribbean ( yucatan) soon, the euro brings the energy into the NW caribbean in about 4 days, ICON in about 5-6 days

[Stratton20]

Even if something develops , I expect this to be a eastern gulf/ florida threat, this upper level pattern will not allow a system to come to texas with the trough that is coming down out of the SE, due to franklin

[Stormlover2020]

Think has more to do with franklin

[weatherguy425]

Even if something develops , I expect this to be a eastern gulf/ florida threat, this upper level pattern will not allow a system to come to texas with the trough that is coming down out of the SE, due to franklin

If troughing is as modeled, you are probably correct, but let's be clear - we're currently dealing with (and have been dealing with) very persistent and anomalous ridging. Should we really bet the house that ridging is going to give way to such deep troughing? Haha. Not yet.

[Stratton20]

Seems like the GEFS ensemble is split, steering is tricky, could either get trapped in the BOC, or get pulled north toward florida, we will see, i think regardless that trough retrograding back into our area should at least provide chances for scattered thunderstorms

[Cpv17]

Oh joy, another storm into FL

[weatherguy425]

Models will continue to struggle with…

Depth of trough
Where energy consolidated, if anywhere at all


Same thoughts as yesterday - casual eye on the Gulf over the next 7-12 days.

[Stratton20]

No kiddint lol the EPS has a spread from galveston to South florida lol, because the energy will be caught in a CAG setup, that will only make things even more difficult to forecast, because it could spawn a low pressure just about anywhere

[DoctorMu]

The Euro has a hurricane slamming the FL Gulf Coast at the end of the month. CMC has a tropical storm landfalling around Ft. Myers. GFS spills some lemonade into SETX around Sept 4.

The shear in the Gulf and Caribbean are low. They are open for business.

[Cpv17]

The Euro has a hurricane slamming the FL Gulf Coast at the end of the month. CMC has a tropical storm landfalling around Ft. Myers. GFS spills some lemonade into SETX around Sept 4.

The shear in the Gulf and Caribbean are low. They are open for business.

If it can hold off from forming and just meanders down there, the better odds for us. If it forms quickly the trough will suck it up N or NE.

[weatherguy425]

Like others have said, a system *could develop almost anywhere within the larger monsoonal trough and plume of moisture. At the moment, most data favors the northern Yucatan coast or Gulf of Honduras. But, it remains to be seen. It is also possible that if the trough remains further north, if could be an area to watch for a couple weeks.

[Cpv17]

Like others have said, a system *could develop almost anywhere within the larger monsoonal trough and plume of moisture. At the moment, most data favors the northern Yucatan coast or Gulf of Honduras. But, it remains to be seen. It is also possible that if the trough remains further north, if could be an area to watch for a couple weeks.

Completely agree.

[srainhoutx]

Tropics remain unsettled...

[Ptarmigan]

Like others have said, a system *could develop almost anywhere within the larger monsoonal trough and plume of moisture. At the moment, most data favors the northern Yucatan coast or Gulf of Honduras. But, it remains to be seen. It is also possible that if the trough remains further north, if could be an area to watch for a couple weeks.

Many tropical cyclones form from monsoonal troughs. The tropical waves from Africa are influenced monsoon.

Favorable Monsoon Environment over Eastern Africa for Subsequent Tropical Cyclogenesis of African Easterly Waves
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0339.1.xml

East African Monsoon as a Drawbridge for the Circumnavigation of Madden–Julian Oscillation Events
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 23GL102906

[tireman4]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure, originating along the East Pacific
coast of Central America, is forecast to move into northwestern
Caribbean Sea by this weekend. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter into early next week, and a tropical
depression could form while it moves slowly northward, entering the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[tireman4]

From Mr. 57,

I was going to mention that upper low, as well as strong SW-NE winds aloft across the NW Caribbean. Anything moving into the NW Caribbean is Florida-bound. I'm thinking as early as Monday afternoon or possibly Tuesday. By Wednesday, it may be past Florida and heading out into the Atlantic. Not an ideal setup for strengthening. Could be anything from an area of rain to a moderate TS. I think chances are more like 70% than the NHC's 50%. They'll bump their numbers up by this weekend.