August 2023

[Cpv17]

That Needville LLWS game just now was ridiculous. Easily will go down as an instant classic. Needville will play for the U.S. championship on Saturday.

[srainhoutx]

That Needville LLWS game just now was ridiculous. Easily will go down as an instant classic. Needville will play for the U.S. championship on Saturday.

Best pitching challenge I've seen anywhere in a long time. What a great game!

[Cpv17]

That Needville LLWS game just now was ridiculous. Easily will go down as an instant classic. Needville will play for the U.S. championship on Saturday.

Best pitching challenge I've seen anywhere in a long time. What a great game!

It reminded me of the pitchers dual between the Astros and Mariners (Houston vs Seattle, get it?) last year in game 3 of the playoffs. Same two communities, same result.

[Pas_Bon]

I just keep reminding myself…..every day that passes is one day closer to this misery being over with.

[oleander]

I just keep reminding myself…..every day that passes is one day closer to this misery being over with.

That's been my thought process also. Dreaming of that first cool crisp morning.

[ajurcat]

I can't wait to complain about being cold!

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 241045
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

The main weather story continues to be the same: oppressive heat and
humidity will continue. The strong mid to upper level high pressure
centered over the central/south CONUS is expected to slowly shift
west/southwest in the next couple of days. But for now, this
stubborn pattern will continue to bring well-above normal
temperatures and likely more new records. With the almost stationary
ridge and warm 850mb temperatures, today is shaping up to be a very
hot day. Most locations will experience highs from 102 to 108 degF.
Highs from the mid to upper 90s can be expected along the coastal
zones. With increasing moisture, dangerous heat index values are
likely.

Ample subsidence remains in place, but cannot rule out some activity
later today as subtle sfc troughs and mid-level shortwaves move
through. Forecast soundings and guidance suggest PWAT values
gradually increasing into the 1.7 to 2.0 inch range. Therefore,
showers and storms will be possible if they overcome the cap and
reach the very warm convT. Deterministic models favor the influence
of the ridge and keep the region mostly dry. However, given weak
forcing and decent moisture, have leaned towards Hi-res/CAMS
solutions for PoPs and kept rain and storm chances (15 to 25 percent)
by mid-late afternoon through early evening. Any showers and storms
that develop should gradually taper off through sunset.

Regarding weather hazards/headlines... Excessive Heat Warnings and
Heat Advisories remain in effect today and will be extended through
Friday evening. An upgrade from Advisory to Warnings at some
locations will be possible for tomorrow. Will continue to monitor
during the day to adjust accordingly.

Fire weather conditions remain a concern this afternoon. Hot
temperatures, afternoon relative humidity into the 20 to 30 percent
range and dry fuels will increase fire danger, particularly across
the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley areas. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, we held off the issuance of Red Flag Warnings
given low sustained wind speeds. Nonetheless, it is important to
avoid any outdoor activities that could lead to fire starts. Burn
bans remain in effect across the entire SE TX.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

With the strong mid/upper ridge holding in place across the Southern
Plains, the weekend forecast will remain hot with little to no rain.
Models have backed off the idea of increased moisture/POPs moving in
from the east, so have lowered rain chances for the weekend. Progged
highs to range from 101-107F over much of the CWA...mid to upper 90s
at the coast. Heat hazards will likely be needed or extended for Sat
and Sun.

Global models are continuing to indicate that changes may be in order
with the larger scale pattern as we head into next week. As the ridge
aloft begins shifting west (and weakening), the deepening trough axis
over the Great Lakes could allow for the passage of a weak cold front
down the Plains late Mon. This boundary could then reach SE TX by Tue
night (if it holds together) and then stalling near the coast through
Weds. Scattered activity could accompany the line and could help low-
er daytime highs (to the upper 90s/around 100) through the first part
of the week. While not all that optimistic with the front as current-
ly depicted, model trends do give some hope for at least some changes
with the overall pattern. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light N winds
shifting to the SSE this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will be possible this afternoon and early evening,
mainly across all inland terminals. Confidence remains moderate to
mention VCTS in TAFs; therefore, continued with VCSH approx from
22Z Thursday through 01-02Z Friday. Gusty winds and reduced
visibility are possible with the heaviest showers/storms.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

The weak diffuse pattern over the region will help keep a generally
light to moderate flow in place through the end of the week on into
this weekend. Wind direction will be dictated by the landbreeze and
sea breeze circulation developing on a daily basis. Sea will remain
in the 1-3ft range. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 107 81 105 78 / 20 20 30 20
Houston (IAH) 105 80 101 80 / 20 20 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 96 84 92 82 / 20 20 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-164-178-
179.

Heat Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ176-177-
195>199-210>213-227-300.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT
Friday for TXZ176-177-195>199.

Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ200.

Heat Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Friday for
TXZ200-210>213-227-300.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ210>213-227-300.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ214-226-235>238-313-
335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...41

[DoctorMu]

We're screwed.


Until we're not.

Every day NOAA posts a 99°F at the end of the 7 day forecast period. But it never gets closer than 7 days.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We're screwed.


Until we're not.

Every day NOAA posts a 99°F at the end of the 7 day forecast period. But it never gets closer than 7 days.

I see a bunch of 90s within 7 days in CS. First football game looks to top out at 97 but kickoff should be 94-95.

A water for every bourbon is my rule in September.

[DoctorMu]

We're screwed.


Until we're not.

Every day NOAA posts a 99°F at the end of the 7 day forecast period. But it never gets closer than 7 days.

I see a bunch of 90s within 7 days in CS. First football game looks to top out at 97 but kickoff should be 94-95.

A water for every bourbon is my rule in September.

It's never too early to start!


Was that on your weather app?

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... n=-96.3124

jpeg uploading failure...

[Cromagnum]

ERCOT warnings for this afternoon. Might cut it close.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We're screwed.


Until we're not.

Every day NOAA posts a 99°F at the end of the 7 day forecast period. But it never gets closer than 7 days.

I see a bunch of 90s within 7 days in CS. First football game looks to top out at 97 but kickoff should be 94-95.

A water for every bourbon is my rule in September.

It's never too early to start!


Was that on your weather app?

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... n=-96.3124

jpeg uploading failure...

Yes, and I have highs in the low 90s in Weimar late next week.

[Cpv17]

I see a bunch of 90s within 7 days in CS. First football game looks to top out at 97 but kickoff should be 94-95.

A water for every bourbon is my rule in September.

It's never too early to start!


Was that on your weather app?

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... n=-96.3124

jpeg uploading failure...

Yes, and I have highs in the low 90s in Weimar late next week.

Not in Wharton. Our highs for next week are still around 100°F each day.

[Cpv17]

The latest CPC forecast is still very ugly with no relief in sight.

[Cpv17]

Good grief, the latest drought monitor looks horrible. Getting outta hand. Can’t remember the last time I saw it that bad. Maybe 2011.

[Cromagnum]

It is God awful outside right now. I see the Seabreeze coming in on radar. Hopefully popcorn starts popping.

[Cpv17]

Topped out at 106°F with a feels like of 113°F here and this looks to continue for the next several days.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Good grief, the latest drought monitor looks horrible. Getting outta hand. Can’t remember the last time I saw it that bad. Maybe 2011.

2011 was much worse than this drought wise….

[Cpv17]

Good grief, the latest drought monitor looks horrible. Getting outta hand. Can’t remember the last time I saw it that bad. Maybe 2011.

2011 was much worse than this drought wise….

In 2011 I had a total of about 10 or 11”. That’s about what I’ve had this year so far and still have over 4 months left. So yeah, it was worse but this crap is still really bad. I think this is the worst it’s been since then but we would have to have a few more months of this to match 2011.

[Stratton20]

The GFS looks nice for se texas through hour 126, scattered storms daily, please please please mother nature gives us a break!!