September 2023

[Stratton20]

Changes are coming, we just have to be patient, it will be gone, this isnt late july or early august, the ridge WILL meet its demise next week, troughing over the eastern US will force the ridge to retreat, changes in the weather pattern down stream are slowly beginning as we speak, its coming, its going to take some time for el nino to really kick in, but im becoming more confident the sub tropical jet will become a bit more active next week, more opportunities for NW flow events

[DoctorMu]

Pow Ponder says we can all say adios to the heat ridge for good next week, ridge backs away into mexico and then begins to rebuild over the western US, Polar jet and the sub tropical jet begin to split with the sub tropical jet lowering further south, should start to see moisture from the pacific begin to override the sub tropical jet and spread into texas, the end is here folks, the heat ridge is gone for good early next week

I've found POW to be surprisingly wrong. A lot. That's what happens when you starting publishing online for clicks. Same or worse for Bastardi.

[Pas_Bon]

We are getting a very healthy downpour in League City currently. 2nd day in a row.

[Cpv17]

Pow Ponder says we can all say adios to the heat ridge for good next week, ridge backs away into mexico and then begins to rebuild over the western US, Polar jet and the sub tropical jet begin to split with the sub tropical jet lowering further south, should start to see moisture from the pacific begin to override the sub tropical jet and spread into texas, the end is here folks, the heat ridge is gone for good early next week

I've found POW to be surprisingly wrong. A lot. That's what happens when you starting publishing online for clicks. Same or worse for Bastardi.

He’s pretty good if you ask me definitely the best one I’ve came across on YouTube.

[Pas_Bon]

I just skimmed through the March 2023 - August 2023 board topics and all y'all are in timeout now.
"No ridge expected," yada, yada, yada. Lol

The CPC (from May) needs to be in timeout, also, for their June prediction of below normal temps and above average rain chances. Sheesh.

[jasons2k]

The radar isn’t that impressive for 3pm. Most of the activity is up to the northeast. What’s new?!?

[jasons2k]

I just skimmed through the March 2023 - August 2023 board topics and all y'all are in timeout now.
"No ridge expected," yada, yada, yada. Lol

The CPC (from May) needs to be in timeout, also, for their June prediction of below normal temps and above average rain chances. Sheesh.

June wasn’t bad at all. It all went to hell after the 4th holiday weekend was over.

[Cromagnum]

I just skimmed through the March 2023 - August 2023 board topics and all y'all are in timeout now.
"No ridge expected," yada, yada, yada. Lol

The CPC (from May) needs to be in timeout, also, for their June prediction of below normal temps and above average rain chances. Sheesh.

June wasn’t bad at all. It all went to hell after the 4th holiday weekend was over.

Speak for yourself. It was already approaching 100 at my place and the spigot shut off completely in early June.

Up to 103 again today IMBY and barely a cloud in sight.

[user:null]

The radar isn’t that impressive for 3pm. Most of the activity is up to the northeast. What’s new?!?

I don't get it either. The NWS, even "No Hype" Space City Weather kept mentioning good storms throughout the area today. Inner Loop Houston has had some good rain rounds, as did Galveston county (including the bay and island) and Liberty county. Otherwise, the radar is a total blank west of I-45, that highway seems to be a magic wall.

Convection always has a hard time in this state west of that magic wall: even the IMMEDIATE SHORES in Corpus, Brownsville, etc barely get anything during summers in general, let alone farther inland locations. Unless they luck out with tropical cyclones, the moisture doesn't seem to give those South Texas areas any benefit apart from surging 120°F heat indexes in Kingsville.

[Cpv17]

I just skimmed through the March 2023 - August 2023 board topics and all y'all are in timeout now.
"No ridge expected," yada, yada, yada. Lol

The CPC (from May) needs to be in timeout, also, for their June prediction of below normal temps and above average rain chances. Sheesh.

June wasn’t bad at all. It all went to hell after the 4th holiday weekend was over.

I didn’t get anything measurable in June.

[jasons2k]

Feast or famine. Seems like it always rains in the same spots.

[don]

I just skimmed through the March 2023 - August 2023 board topics and all y'all are in timeout now.
"No ridge expected," yada, yada, yada. Lol

The CPC (from May) needs to be in timeout, also, for their June prediction of below normal temps and above average rain chances. Sheesh.

June wasn’t bad at all. It all went to hell after the 4th holiday weekend was over.

I didn’t get anything measurable in June.

There were several pretty significant hail and wind damage events in June in the Houston metro area, at least. I personally saw large hail, and two events with winds over 60-70mph.One of the severe weather events even produced a wind gust of 97mph at Bush.

[Cpv17]

June wasn’t bad at all. It all went to hell after the 4th holiday weekend was over.

I didn’t get anything measurable in June.

There were several pretty significant hail and wind damage events in June in the Houston metro area, at least.

Yeah I remember that. The rain shut off for me the last week of May.

[Cromagnum]

I didn’t get anything measurable in June.

There were several pretty significant hail and wind damage events in June in the Houston metro area, at least.

Yeah I remember that. The rain shut off for me the last week of May.

Yeah, I think we get a quarter to half an inch then and that was pretty much it for the rest of the summer for us. We might have squeezed out one more rain during the July 4 storm, but I know that one was a quarter inch at the most.

[jasons2k]

If every June was like this at my place I’d have no complaints.

[don]

A small portion of northeast Houston just received up to 2.5 inches of rain this afternoon from that storm that was sitting on the east side.I'm happy for them.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
542 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following
county, Harris.

* WHEN...Until 645 PM CDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
have fallen.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Greater Fifth Ward, Second Ward, Near Northside Houston,
Settegast, Houston Gardens, Kashmere Gardens, Pleasantville
Area, East Houston, El Dorado / Oates Prairie, Denver Harbor
/ Port Houston, East Little York / Homestead, Eastex / Jensen
Area, Magnolia Park, Hunterwood and Northshore.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

[srainhoutx]

Changes are brewing. It's that time of year when we await that first true Fall front reminding us that the grip of summer is easing and the promise of cool temperatures and pleasant "tail gating" returns.

[DoctorMu]

All famine, all the time here. Still.

Allegedly climo may take a hand next week...but they said that for this week as well...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYtBF1OVciU

The first half of June...you made me promises, promises...you knew you'd never keep.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are continuing this afternoon, courtesy of
a mid-upper level shortwave and elevated PWAT values. The trend
today has been a combination of showers/storms moving inland from
the Gulf of Mexico and showers/storms firing up from the outflow
boundaries of dying storms. Expect this trend to continue with the
sea breeze, with precipitation dissipating around sunset with the
loss of heating.

Unfortunately, the rainfall has not been enough to suppress the
heat in most locations. Heat index values remain in the triple
digits for the majority of the area, with several locations
reaching/exceeding 108 degrees.

Expecting a similar trend with temperatures for tomorrow, so have
issued a Heat Advisory for much of SE Texas for Wednesday afternoon
(NW counties are excluded for now, but may need to be reassessed
with the overnight forecast).

High pressure is expected to stake claim over the area tomorrow and
moisture will become more shallow as winds at the 925mb layer become
NE by afternoon hours and usher in drier air. While rain chances
will be lower than what has been observed today due to the high
pressure, residual moisture and PVA could allow for some isolated
development closer to the coast.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

Broad mid level ridging generally centered in West Tx and NM should
dominate area wx for the rest of the work week and into the weekend
keeping hot & dry wx in place. H85 temps, currently in the 18-22C
range, will increase back up to between 22-27C. Corresponding
surface temps should be in the triple digits areawide except for
the beaches. Heat Advisories are again likely.

Later in the weekend and into early next week, the ridge retreats
back to the west. Heights will lower and surface temps will trend
back down some. Expecting some higher PW`s to make their way in from
the east early next week. This combined with what appears to be a
messy northerly flow aloft should hopefully provide for scattered
shower and thunderstorm chances as several models suggest. At this
point, it`s still too early to speculate much on the timing,
coverage and other finer details.

[DoctorMu]

The Ensembles and CMC bring fronts over the next 2 weeks to the DFW area, consistent with the 8-14 day outlooks. Euro and GFS are more aggressive. Another definite maybe. We'll know more by the weekend.

[GBinGrimes]

It may take a 1000 year flood to close the uncountable crevices in my pasture. Any measurable rain will disappear straight down, down, down...probably all the way to the aquifer.

But, it first has to rain. It's been a long, long time.