September 2023

[DoctorMu]

My critique was more of some of the other comments on this board. It’s not the same place it used to be, I guess.

It's pretty obvious why:

Look back at the old-times when this board was founded (sometime in the 2000s decade): the climate patterns in SE TX were much milder/more agreeable in that period, hence more enjoyable for many. The 2000s decade actually had more consistent/heavier summer rainfall that limited 100°F frequencies ... and winters were much milder (which I will add to below).

Contrast that with these BS "wall-to-wall 100°F without a drop of rain for months" summers. All in brutal combination with "freezes down to teens". The heat this year when stations like Hobby destroyed their previous records: even the infamous 2011 still only had 18 days of 100°F temps in Hobby (similar to the amount of the 2022 summer) compared to the 30+ seen this year, and that was with a much worse drought across Texas persisting since spring. Meanwhile, for winters, loads of areas south of I-10 had never seen a hard freeze from 1991 until Feb 2010, and hadn't seen teens for decades until 2021.

I will concur that the last 2 years have had the hottest summers in recordable history and some more serious freezes in the winter. I don't mind the winter extremes as much.

This summer is really the 1998 anomaly on steroids. There was a flip to El Nino in both years and as a result a massive heat dump from the oceans back into the atmosphere. However, this year's heat dump and tropospheric temps are the highest recorded.

(Yes, the Earth has been much hotter and for prolonged periods of time)

[weatherguy425]

Our history in southeast Texas is full of extremes - well before our time.

Meaningless tripe because even factoring in all those extremes, Houston just recorded its confirmed hottest summer on record (as per Matt Lanza on Space City Weather). That's on top of record highs obliterated along the Gulf Coast all the way into Mississippi: insane 109-110°F in the SWAMPS of Louisiana at Lafayette, New Iberia, etc.

Climate change is real. Extremes have gotten more extreme.

But, you’re avoiding the criticism. Folks ignored a clear forecast for what they wanted to happen only to gripe and complain about a forecast that wasn’t incorrect.

[weatherguy425]

My critique was more of some of the other comments on this board. It’s not the same place it used to be, I guess.

It's pretty obvious why:

Look back at the old-times when this board was founded (sometime in the 2000s decade): the climate patterns in SE TX were much milder/more agreeable in that period, hence more enjoyable for many. The 2000s decade actually had more consistent/heavier summer rainfall that limited 100°F frequencies ... and winters were much milder (which I will add to below).

Contrast that with these BS "wall-to-wall 100°F without a drop of rain for months" summers. All in brutal combination with "freezes down to teens". The heat this year when stations like Hobby destroyed their previous records: even the infamous 2011 still only had 18 days of 100°F temps in Hobby (similar to the amount of the 2022 summer) compared to the 30+ seen this year, and that was with a much worse drought across Texas persisting since spring. Meanwhile, for winters, loads of areas south of I-10 had never seen a hard freeze from 1991 until Feb 2010, and hadn't seen teens for decades until 2021.

I will concur that the last 2 years have had the hottest summers in recordable history and some more serious freezes in the winter. I don't mind the winter extremes as much.

This summer is really the 1998 anomaly on steroids. There was a flip to El Nino in both years and as a result a massive heat dump from the oceans back into the atmosphere. However, this year's heat dump and tropospheric temps are the highest recorded.

(Yes, the Earth has been much hotter and for prolonged periods of time)

Extremes are more extreme.

But, again, the original criticism stands. Folks are choosing to not actually listen to a forecast and then criticize the forecast and meteorologists that provided it - unnecessarily.

[TexasBreeze]

It seems the grumpiness stems from some of the same areas seeing rain multiple times and others not seeing anything. It has rained 3 times this week about 5 or 10 minutes to my east, but no drops at all at my place. It is frustrating!

[weatherguy425]

It seems the grumpiness stems from some of the same areas seeing rain multiple times and others not seeing anything. It has rained 3 times this week about 5 or 10 minutes to my east, but no drops at all at my place. It is frustrating!

Totally understand the frustration, but doesn’t warrant distrust in a forecast - that is the opposite of what this forum originally stood for. That’s all.

[TexasBreeze]

I have seen many regulars come and go on this forum since the late Dan Meador and KHOU ran it and behaviors have changed too. Good times back then for sure! It is to be expected and hopefully what pros we have such as you don't go anywhere!

[Cromagnum]

It seems the grumpiness stems from some of the same areas seeing rain multiple times and others not seeing anything. It has rained 3 times this week about 5 or 10 minutes to my east, but no drops at all at my place. It is frustrating!

Totally understand the frustration, but doesn’t warrant distrust in a forecast - that is the opposite of what this forum originally stood for. That’s all.

I realize futurecasts are little more than informed decisions but this feels like calling heads and flipping tails every single time. The models that these forecasts are based on seem to be worse than ever this year.

[weatherguy425]

It seems the grumpiness stems from some of the same areas seeing rain multiple times and others not seeing anything. It has rained 3 times this week about 5 or 10 minutes to my east, but no drops at all at my place. It is frustrating!

Totally understand the frustration, but doesn’t warrant distrust in a forecast - that is the opposite of what this forum originally stood for. That’s all.

I realize futurecasts are little more than informed decisions but this feels like calling heads and flipping tails every single time. The models that these forecasts are based on seem to be worse than ever this year.

That is incorrect. Skillscores continue to improve as a whole. Forecasts bow are vastly more accurate now than they were 15, 20, 25 years ago. Though, we are still at a place where we can’t tell you if *your house* is going to get rain and that is stressed pretty clearly.

[weatherguy425]

I have seen many regulars come and go on this forum since the late Dan Meador and KHOU ran it and behaviors have changed too. Good times back then for sure! It is to be expected and hopefully what pros we have such as you don't go anywhere!

I wish it was worth it. But, this is more of a place of criticism rather than mutual understanding and learning. Used to be a great place and really fueled my passion. It’s not as sutable for new learners anymore.

[DoctorMu]

Totally understand the frustration, but doesn’t warrant distrust in a forecast - that is the opposite of what this forum originally stood for. That’s all.

I realize futurecasts are little more than informed decisions but this feels like calling heads and flipping tails every single time. The models that these forecasts are based on seem to be worse than ever this year.

That is incorrect. Skillscores continue to improve as a whole. Forecasts bow are vastly more accurate now than they were 15, 20, 25 years ago. Though, we are still at a place where we can’t tell you if *your house* is going to get rain and that is stressed pretty clearly.

There's no doubt that that is true. NHC is also far more accurate with hurricane prediction.

I'm "complaining" because it approaches 110°F nearly every day and no rain regardless of the forecast.

[DoctorMu]

I have seen many regulars come and go on this forum since the late Dan Meador and KHOU ran it and behaviors have changed too. Good times back then for sure! It is to be expected and hopefully what pros we have such as you don't go anywhere!

Yes. It's too bad about KHOU - it was a trusted source of sensible weather. We have had our weather trolls since then.

Hope the mets stick around.

[mcheer23]

I have seen many regulars come and go on this forum since the late Dan Meador and KHOU ran it and behaviors have changed too. Good times back then for sure! It is to be expected and hopefully what pros we have such as you don't go anywhere!

Yes. It's too bad about KHOU - it was a trusted source of sensible weather. We have had our weather trolls since then.

Hope the mets stick around.

Remember Arizona Desert?

[jasons2k]

Some of these comments make me sad. I hope this forum is always a place for learning.

In the meantime, check this out.

[djmike]

Pretty good lightning storm in Jefferson county to the north. Possibly our round two?

[djmike]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
110 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

West Cameron LA-Southern Calcasieu LA-Northern Calcasieu LA- Hardin TX-Northern Orange TX-Lower Jefferson TX-Southern Newton TX- Southern Orange TX-Northern Jasper TX-Southern Jasper TX- Upper Jefferson TX-Tyler TX- 110 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CAMERON AND SOUTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISHES...NORTHERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHERN TYLER...SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON...HARDIN...ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 215 AM CDT...

At 110 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Wrights Settlement to near Silsbee to 7 miles southwest of Votaw. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include... Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Lumberton, Vidor, Bridge City, Silsbee, West Orange, Kirbyville, Kountze, Sour Lake, Nome, Evadale, Thicket, Fred, Deweyville, and Central Gardens.

This includes the following highways... Interstate 10 in Texas between mile markers 880 and 832. Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 5.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

[DoctorMu]

I have seen many regulars come and go on this forum since the late Dan Meador and KHOU ran it and behaviors have changed too. Good times back then for sure! It is to be expected and hopefully what pros we have such as you don't go anywhere!

Yes. It's too bad about KHOU - it was a trusted source of sensible weather. We have had our weather trolls since then.

Hope the mets stick around.

Remember Arizona Desert?

Yeah - wasn't his thing about the DR being overrated? Gotta laugh instead of crying.

banter gets testy when we're stuck in an extreme mode.

[Rip76]

Looks like these storms East of Waco may hold together on the way down.
May be a 4am issue.

[jasons2k]

Awaken to a present.

[jasons2k]

Trapped inside a donut, again!!
It’s like watching a pot get to a boil.

[jasons2k]

Finally started pouring here at the tail end….and the power shut off. Back to bed.