September 2023

[user:null]

But, you’re avoiding the criticism. Folks ignored a clear forecast for what they wanted to happen only to gripe and complain about a forecast that wasn’t incorrect.

I didn't ignore that part of your statement. It's just that when you mentioned "changes on the forum over the years," I thought that you were referring more regarding attitudes/behaviors on this forum in general, not necessarily the specific sentiment regarding treatment of weather forecast.

So that's fair enough: forecasters no doubt work very hard in dealing with/interpreting the chaotic state of affairs that is our atmosphere. It's true that the detailed nuance and uncertainty that is inherent in climatology/meteorology (and all sciences in general) run acounter to the self-assured "confidence"/"100% correctness" that people really seem to want out of things (resulting in the Dunning-Kruger effect that has created negative impacts on politics, particularly from the right wing). So, overall, I definitely agree that having a clear-head and understanding the full-scope of a forecast is important (although that might also mean the need of greater access to communication/learning resources regarding nuances of why particular outcomes tend to be favored).

I'd say the rise of social media/"wishcasting" on Twitter/"X" and YouTube that drive engagement often can outcompete many of the level-headed/seasoned meteorologist personalities for clicks. This leads to an "adapt or die" approah, wherein the meteorologies either has to create inflammatory content themselves to compete, or stick with having a smaller amount of followers (quality > quantity for sure, though).

My apologies for any misunderstandings.

I have seen many regulars come and go on this forum since the late Dan Meador and KHOU ran it and behaviors have changed too. Good times back then for sure! It is to be expected and hopefully what pros we have such as you don't go anywhere!

Some of these comments make me sad. I hope this forum is always a place for learning.

Fair enough. I apologize for any disruptions on my end.

[user:null]

After seeing some recent posts regarding El Nino and summer weather in Texas, I decided to take a look at things and found this writeup below from the NWS Brownsville/RGV office. In short, it's quite possible that this summer in Texas was hot and dry precisely because of the El Nino (or rather, the development of it), rather than in-spite: mostly due to chances regarding the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (equatorward shift that also shifts the Hadley Circulation/subtropical highs equatorward in ways that might bring greater subsidence to Texas) or westerlies (which might be more important, as certain blocking patterns might get enhanced during developing Ninos in ways that also bring drought to Texas).
https://www.weather.gov/bro/2009event_heatwavereasons

[Cromagnum]

0.00 once again. Maybe this afternoon, but I doubt it.

[suprdav2]

Nada again. Completely broke up just north of me..... again. Cypress forcefield holding strong.

[DoctorMu]

After seeing some recent posts regarding El Nino and summer weather in Texas, I decided to take a look at things and found this writeup below from the NWS Brownsville/RGV office. In short, it's quite possible that this summer in Texas was hot and dry precisely because of the El Nino (or rather, the development of it), rather than in-spite: mostly due to chances regarding the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (equatorward shift that also shifts the Hadley Circulation/subtropical highs equatorward in ways that might bring greater subsidence to Texas) or westerlies (which might be more important, as certain blocking patterns might get enhanced during developing Ninos in ways that also bring drought to Texas).
https://www.weather.gov/bro/2009event_heatwavereasons

This summer is a supercharged version of the 1998 anomaly. When we flipped from La Niña to El Niño, there was a major heat dump from the ocean. About 80% of the heat storage from CC is in the oceans.

[DoctorMu]

We have some cells descending near College Station. Fingers crossed we don't get the Lucy or donut.

[Rip76]

Clouds to the left of me,
Rain to the right
Here I am……

Oh well, Hook ‘em!!

[DoctorMu]

Hopefully...

https://youtu.be/4BgF7Y3q-as?si=d2QSqkb_gsCuasRm


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

There has been some active weather overnight with several marine thunderstorm
wind gusts associated with the first storm complex that moved through
the bays and coastal waters. The next cluster of showers and thunderstorms
(so far mainly lots of lightning, very much needed locally heavy rainfall
and probably some gusty winds) is sagging to the south and southeast
across our northern counties (generally to the northeast of the Conroe
area at 4 AM). These storms should stay mainly near and to the east
of the I-45 corridor for the rest of the overnight hours. Not much confidence
on how the rest of the day will go, but will lean toward possible storm
redevelopment during peak heating later this afternoon through early
this evening, possibly concentration between the Houston area and the
coast (go 06Z HRRR!). This scenario give much of the area ample time
to warm back up, and with high temperatures into the lower 100s and
high dew points across our western counties, will continue with the
Heat Advisory (maybe/hopefully the last one of 2023?!?). If clouds linger
longer than expected and/or rains end up forming/moving into this area,
we will end up staying below Advisory levels. As some drier air edges
into the area from the north and northeast tonight and Sunday, will
maintain our highest rain chances generally to the south of the I-10
corridor. Will continue to forecast high temperatures on Sunday under
100 degrees! Look for a quiet Sunday night with lows mostly in the
low to mid 70s (except around 80 at the coast and maybe some mid to
upper 60s in/around our far northern counties from around the Crockett
area to around the Livingston area).

42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

The forecast for next week remains mostly unchanged as wetter and
not-as-hot conditions look to develop across SE Texas. By Monday, an
upper level trough axis will settle in over the Upper Great
Lakes/Ontario, while a midlevel ridge remains positioned over
Western Mexico/Baja California. While a quasi-stationary boundary
should be looming across the area, PWATs lean drier in the range of
1.0-1.5 inches, keeping rain chances isolated to start the week.
850mb temperatures of around 19-21C should pave the way for highs
generally in the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s along the
coast.

The aforementioned upper level trough should become a cutoff low as
it digs into the Great Lakes early Tuesday morning. As it does, this
feature will aim to drape a weak cold front across the Plains, into
SE Texas. Moisture should pool in advance of this boundary, bringing
PWATs in the range of 1.6-2.0" over the next several days. By
Wednesday, this frontal boundary looks to stall and become quasi-
stationary over the coastal bend, later drifting inland during the
later half of the work week. Combining those factors with a steady
supply of PVA streaming overhead should provide daily
shower/thunderstorm chances through the end of the next work week.
850mb temperatures are progged to drop to 16-19C by midweek,
bringing our first substantial period of "cooler" weather in quite a
while. Daytime highs should be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with
overnight lows in the 60s and 70s.

03

&&

[Katdaddy]

Yep the weather forums have change over the years but this one and Storm2k have remained a great source for discussions and sharing of information. I remember the pre-Storm2k days at the GoPBi forum from West Palm Beach, FL.....now I feel old but at least we got .43" of rain this morning.

[user:null]

This summer is a supercharged version of the 1998 anomaly. When we flipped from La Niña to El Niño, there was a major heat dump from the ocean. About 80% of the heat storage from CC is in the oceans.

Yeah, there are definitely parallels regarding this 2022-2023 summer dry period and the 1998-2000 millenium dry period.

[jasons2k]

Well gang, I got .21” in my bucket but I think the trees/wind blocked it because it was .31” down the street (he’s like 6 houses away). So grateful for something and perhaps the beginning of a new trend, finally. I get a day off for a change.

[Rip76]

We need a like button, btw.

[Cpv17]

We need a like button, btw.

Definitely

[Cromagnum]

Great start by my Ags. BTHO Miami.

[Cpv17]

Great start by my Ags. BTHO Miami.

Lol not looking so good now.

[user:null]

Well gang, I got .21” in my bucket but I think the trees/wind blocked it because it was .31” down the street (he’s like 6 houses away). So grateful for something and perhaps the beginning of a new trend, finally. I get a day off for a change.

If Jason's curse has been broken, that bodes well for Cromagnum and others in the near future!

[Cromagnum]

Great start by my Ags. BTHO Miami.

Lol not looking so good now.

Hah, yep. The Durkin defense strikes again. They should never have kept him.

[TexasBreeze]

I cashed in this morning finally with about a 1/3 inch of rain and thunder!

[jasons2k]

I cashed in this morning finally with about a 1/3 inch of rain and thunder!

Every little bit helps. Hopefully the death ridge is gone and we can get back to normal September weather.

[Cromagnum]

Storms all to the east of us every time, and now west of us. Screw us here in between.