September 2023

[DoctorMu]

Definitely a taste of Fall this morning with temps in the 70s and DPs in the 50s. Last night, without humid air and haze, vision clarity was high and more stars pierced through the light pollution.

Enjoy the fresh morning.

There's rain lurking west of I-35. This week, most of the rain will likely be north of Hearne to possibly Hwy 1*5.

[DoctorMu]

CLL reached a high of 95°, but with a DP in the low 50s and sunk to 49°F at the peak of the day. With a bonus of significant cloud cover. Felt great out there!

[srainhoutx]

We'll be getting our first Fall front here in the Smokies tomorrow evening into Wednesday morning. You folks should feel a bit of cooler weather late this week. Leaves have began to fall and some color is showing up with the Maples and Dogwood trees. The days are getting shorter and we will see our first of high temperatures in the upper 60's with lows in the mid to upper 40’s. Hang on SE Texas folk, changes are brewing for you too!

[Ptarmigan]

Nice to see lower humidity. Hard to believe it has been 22 years on this day.

[DoctorMu]

NWS just doubled down on rain forecast for Thursday/Friday at 70% and 60%.

No, seriously I really am shocked.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

Forecast for Tuesday remains unchanged, with generally high clouds
prevailing and temperatures hanging around the 90s area wide.
Moisture will be on the rise again tomorrow as PWAT values increase
to around 1.5-1.7" in response to the return of onshore winds. The
mid-upper level ridge will continue to flatten out through the short-
term period, providing a generally NW flow aloft. A shortwave
impulse will approach SE Texas Tuesday into Tuesday night, with
clouds increasing in response. This will provide another chance of
rain to the far northern counties and for locations close to the
bay/coastline. Expect coverage to be isolated as chances for
precipitation remain on the lower side (20%).

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

With the quasi-stationary frontal boundary lingering in/around the
CWA from Wed into Fri, rain chances will likely remain elevated as
this feature interacts with embedded short-waves in the zonal flow
aloft. The combination of clouds/rain and some very weak CAA could
help to keep daytime highs closer to our seasonal norms (upper 80s
to upper 90s) with overnight lows in the 60s and 70s.

As we head into the weekend, another cold front is progged to move
into the state...and then perhaps into SE TX by late Sat/early Sun.
And so, scattered POPs could remain in the forecast through the up-
coming weekend. 41

&&

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121052
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Diffuse wind shift/frontal boundary will sink into the area today
and eventually meander a bit closer to the coast by late Wed
afternoon (then wash out). Not a whole lot of forcing with this
feature today, though may or may not be a pseudo focus for some
isolated late afternoon and evening showers/tstms. Same can be
said for the seabreeze, though most the the region won`t see much.

Later tonight and Wednesday, guidance is depicting a messier mid level
flow with some weak disturbances embedded in the zonal flow making
their way into northern 1/2-1/3 of Southeast Texas. With slightly
higher available moisture in place, we should see some better
chances of scattered rainfall. Again...nothing much of significance
in regards to making a dent in the drought, but the increased
cloud cover and lower high temps alone are more than welcome. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Thursday will feature nearly zonal flow aloft with a quasi-
stationary boundary looming over the region. Shortwave impulses and
PWs over 2.0 inches at times should bring daily shower/thunderstorm
chances with the aforementioned boundary. 850mb temperatures should
range between 17-20C, bringing more-seasonable conditions for Southeast
Texas. Daytime highs should be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with
overnight lows in the 60s and 70s.

Global models feature another trough axis trough digging across the
Plains/Mississippi River Valley heading into the weekend. This
feature is currently progged to bring another weak frontal boundary
to SE Texas on Saturday, with drier air from this boundary filtering
in overnight into Sunday morning. This should bring lower rain
chances heading into Monday, with hints of rising temperatures
next week as ridging builds over Mexico.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

VFR conditions with light winds. Expect some isolated evng
shra/tsra, probably between IAH-UTS, in the 22-04z timeframe.
A better shot of precip arrives north of the metro area after
about 9z with the approach of some weak impulses embedded in the
upper level flow. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Light to moderate onshore flow and increasing rain chances are
expected for today. A weak cold front is progged to push offshore on
Wednesday, with scattered to isolated showers expected daily as it
lingers over the region. Expect easterly to southeasterly winds and
seas of 1 to 3 feet through the end of the work week. Offshore flow
returns this weekend as another weak cold front pushes across SE
Texas.

03

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Fire potential remains high to very high generally along/north of
the US59/I69 corridor today per the Texas A&M Fire Service. RH`s
should bottom out in the 30-35% range in that area today...though
winds will be fairly light. As such, no Red Flag Warning today. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 73 90 72 / 20 30 40 40
Houston (IAH) 98 76 95 74 / 20 20 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 92 80 91 80 / 10 10 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[Iceresistance]

Posted this yesterday, filmed on September 6th

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_itZeXaAaI

[jasons2k]

Definitely a taste of Fall this morning with temps in the 70s and DPs in the 50s. Last night, without humid air and haze, vision clarity was high and more stars pierced through the light pollution.

Enjoy the fresh morning.

There's rain lurking west of I-35. This week, most of the rain will likely be north of Hearne to possibly Hwy 1*5.

I meant to reply to this on Monday, but yes I noticed on Sunday afternoon/evening the sky was crystal clear. It’s amazing how blue and crisp it looks when that pollution and haze is swept away.

[DoctorMu]

Definitely a taste of Fall this morning with temps in the 70s and DPs in the 50s. Last night, without humid air and haze, vision clarity was high and more stars pierced through the light pollution.

Enjoy the fresh morning.

There's rain lurking west of I-35. This week, most of the rain will likely be north of Hearne to possibly Hwy 1*5.

I meant to reply to this on Monday, but yes I noticed on Sunday afternoon/evening the sky was crystal clear. It’s amazing how blue and crisp it looks when that pollution and haze is swept away.

Water vapor, too. All of the above can distort light and reduce the crystal clarity.

[DoctorMu]

Speaking of water vapor...that Great Lakes trough is helping to drag Pacific moisture our way for the first time since the first half of June!

Could a big drink of water be in our future?

[DoctorMu]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

High clouds moving into the northern counties this afternoon as
observed on GOES-16 Visible Satellite. A cumulus deck is also
developing closer to the coast as the sea and bay breezes begin to
roll inland. Isolated showers may be possible this afternoon along
that boundary as it moves inland. Showers will also be possible for
northern counties this afternoon into tonight as a weak frontal
boundary moves in. Models show this frontal boundary stalling across
those northern counties through the short-term period. This will also
lead into an increase in clouds during the overnight hours and into
Wednesday.

Looking more into Wednesday, flow will become generally zonal with
some weaker disturbances embedded within the overall flow. These
disturbances will move into the northern half of southeast Texas.
PWAT values will be a bit higher tomorrow (around 1.7"), so coverage
of showers should be more scattered. While the rain will be much
needed...it is not going to do much to put a dent in our current
drought situation. At the very least, the increased cloud cover will
help lower the daytime highs.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

A generally zonal flow at the mid/upper levels and weak surface high
pressure situated over Northern Gulf coast should help keep elevated
rain chances in place across SE TX through the end of the week. This
pattern will also keep the weakening quasi-stationary surface bound-
ary in place along to near the coast on Thu/Fri. This could act as a
focus for periods of showers/thunderstorms with the addition of var-
ious mid/upper level shortwaves and daytime heating. Should this all
come together as planned, SE TX could actually have a decent shot of
beneficial rainfall with this system, and come in at (or just under)
normals for high temperatures for Thurs/Fri.

Over the weekend, the pattern aloft is forecast to begin shifting a
bit with the ridge building over the Rockies. This should result in
a more northwesterly flow at the mid/upper levels. This should sup-
port the passage of another weak cold front late Sat into early Sun
across the CWA, with perhaps some isolated activity. In its wake, a
drier (but not much cooler) airmass is set to move into the region.
However, we may have to keep watch for disturbances embedded in the
flow aloft heading into next week. 41

&&

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m in Olathe, Kansas. Be jealous. It’s 51 degrees!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131122
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Some weak upper level disturbances moving overhead will generate
some scattered showers and isolated storms north of the metro area
this morning. Main concern today will be in the late afternoon
and evening hours generally near and south of the I-10 corridor
where hires models are consistent in depicting storm development
between an incoming seabreeze and a nearly stationary frontal
boundary. KIAH appears to be on the northern periphery of the
zone of concern, but KHOU, KSGR, KLBX and KGLS should be on the
lookout for some isolated stronger cells capable of producing
some heavy downpours and gusty winds in the 20-02z time period.
Outside of storms, VFR conditions with light winds, mid-high
level ceilings prevailing. Area remains susceptible to weak
disturbances passing overhead later tonight and Thursday that`ll
generate periods of shra/tstms. Possibility of some MVFR ceilings
by mid morning Thursday at the metro & coastal sites. 47

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Seeing some isolated storms develop across northern parts of the
area early this morning...more than likely in association with
discrete disturbances moving overhead in the zonal flow aloft.
Guidance generally supports similar scattered activity across the
area today...moreso across northern parts of the CWA this morning,
then a bit closer to the coast later this afternoon as daytime
heating and some enhanced convergence between incoming seabreeze and
quasistationary frontal boundary that should be situated around the
I-10 corridor. Some of the HREF members as well as the TTU WRF show
a few healthy cells across parts of the area in the 3-9pm timeframe
though overall placement and timing varies fairly widely. In
general, southern parts (around I-10 southward) seem to be the more
favored and PMM`s indicate the potential for some 0.5-2.0" amounts
between late afternoon and midnight. PW`s in the 2.0-2.2" range
would support such scenarios. Overall forcing/dynamics doesn`t look
that impressive, but can`t rule out a couple pulse strong-severe
cells. Overall confidence on the finer details is fairly low
considering smaller scale influences.

Same type setup and reasoning tonight and Thurs. Guidance depicts
chances of precip thru the period across a good portion of the CWA,
but on varying timescales and still dependent on small features not
easily identified on current satellite imagery where we`d be able to
favor one model over another. As such, did not deviate much from the
blends.

With increased cloud cover, those that don`t see substantial
rainfall should at least be able to enjoy lower high temps. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Rainfall chances remain in the forecast as we head into the
weekend as a series of weak disturbances embedded within a mostly
zonal midlevel flow traverse the area, while moisture availability
remains in place and a weak frontal boundary continues to linger
near the coast. This will provide us with another day of scattered
shower and storm activity on Friday, with high temperatures only
reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations. On
Saturday, a frontal boundary associated with a weakly defined
surface low over the Great Lakes region will push into the area.
This will being additional chances for rainfall to most of the
area, along with some slightly drier air as surface winds briefly
shift to an offshore regime. Severe storms and/or flooding are
currently not anticipated with this activity, with this rainfall
potentially providing some mitigation to the extreme to
exceptional drought conditions currently in place across the
region.

Hotter temperatures are expected as we head into the beginning of
next week as a broad ridge builds to our SW, resulting in a
steady increase to midlevel heights. Highs return to the mid 90s
on Monday and may potentially reach the upper 90s in some
locations on Tuesday. Despite this, the aforementioned drier air
mass will result in apparent temperature values remaining in the
mid to upper 90s. Scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorms are
expected to develop during this time, mainly impacting locations
along and south of the I-10 corridor.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Light winds, low seas, and daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast throughout the remainder
of the week and the upcoming weekend. Wind speeds and wave heights
are unlikely to exceed caution thresholds through at least the
early part of next week. Winds may briefly shift offshore as a
weak front approaches the area later today.

Cady

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Min RH`s should bottom out in the 45-60% range today...quite a bit
higher than yesterday. Winds should remain light as well, so not
planning on any Red Flag Warnings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated today...with even better chances
forecast for Thursday. Fuels remain dry, so will still need to
be aware of lightning strikes. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 74 88 72 / 50 40 70 60
Houston (IAH) 95 76 90 74 / 60 50 60 40
Galveston (GLS) 92 79 89 79 / 50 50 60 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[DoctorMu]

We just had a light pop up shower. There are more substantial showers lurking north of us. Hoping for some drought-busting rain over the next few days.

[Stratton20]

i dont expect much today, probably a better chance tommorow and friday though

[Cromagnum]

Lots of "rain and thunderstorms likely " in the forecast. We'll see...

[Cpv17]

One thing I’ve noticed on the mesos lately is they look really promising 24+ hours out and then the closer it gets, the less and less promising it looks. Yesterday the mesos were showing decent amounts and coverage for today and now they hardly show anything for today.

[user:null]

Meanwhile, Space City Weather actually INCREASED their rainfall predictions in the period from today thru Saturday (based on NOAA).

The NWS discussion from this morning states that good development should kick in south of I-10 later in this late afternoon-evening period (3-9PM) with the convergence from sea-breeze + stalled frontal boundary.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 132033
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
333 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Doppler Radar shows showers and thunderstorms pushing across
northern counties this afternoon, in association with a stalled
frontal boundary that is draped across the northern half of the CWA.
Storms are also developing closer to the coast as the sea breeze
moves inland. Downburst signatures have been observed with a few of
the storms closer to the coast, so will continue to monitor the
potential for downbursts with any storms that develop. Additionally,
storms closer to the coast have shown very little movement within
the last hour, so could see some localized flooding with storms that
have heavier rainfall rates. WPC does have most of SE Texas in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (5% chance of excess rainfall
within 25 miles of a point) for today and all of SE Texas in a
Marginal Risk for tomorrow.

Expect more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for
tomorrow as shortwave impulses continue to push through our area.
HREF shows waves of activity, with the first wave this afternoon
into the evening hours. Activity should taper off overnight with the
next wave of activity approaching from the W/NW Thursday morning.

Temperatures will remain in the 80s to 90s area wide. With dew point
values in the 70s, a few locations may see heat index values reach
up to 105 degrees. Of course, cloud cover and any rainfall may
inhibit this.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

We pick things up on Friday where a stalled frontal boundary will
still be lingering over Southeast Texas. With PW values still around
or greater than the 90th percentile (~2.08") and plenty of PVA
moving downstream in the form of numerous shortwaves, we`ll continue
to keep rain chances in the forecast going into the weekend. The WPC
has outlined our northwestern counties (generally north of US-59/I-
69) in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on
Friday. The plus side of the widespread rainfall is some relief for
the ongoing extreme to exceptional drought across the region...and
lower temperatures! High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be
seasonal in the low 90s. The additional moisture and cloud cover
will keep overnight lows mainly in the mid 70s, so there`s the
caveat. If you`re looking for slightly cooler low temperatures, wait
for Sunday night!

Going into Saturday, an upper level trough with an embedded upper
level low will move through the Great Lakes region. Late
Saturday/early Sunday, we`ll catch the very tail end of a shortwave
trough. This will provide the push that finally clears the front out
of the area and brings in some drier air for at least a brief
period. PW values will be on a decreasing trend throughout Sunday
and dropping to the 1.3"-1.6" range by Sunday night. It doesn`t
sound like much, but it is below the 75th percentile! Dew points
will also drop into the mid 60s. Combine that with winds becoming
light and variable and clear skies, and we have a somewhat
sufficient radiational cooling on Sunday night. Enough for low
temperatures to range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Monday night
will be about the same, but a degree or so warmer with moisture
beginning to rise once again.

There is a bit of discrepancy on how quickly moisture returns and
how much moisture returns with the Euro surprisingly being the
wetter solution compared to the GFS (usually it`s the opposite). In
addition to that, ridging aloft looks to return going into next week
as a 590+ dam high builds into northeastern Mexico causing 500 mb
heights to rise across Southeast Texas. That does mean that a
warming trend is in store for next week, but we do keep rain chances
in the forecast. This means the upward temperature trend only takes
us back into the mid 90s by the middle of next week.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Weak upper level disturbances will continue through the period,
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Showers
ongoing at CLL, approaching UTS terminal this morning. Expect
these to continue east through the day. As sea breeze moves in,
and stationary front sags further south and east, expect activity
to develop at and around HOU/SGR/LBS/GLS terminals and potentially
including IAH during the afternoon/evening hours. Some isolated
storms could produce heavy downpours and gust winds during the
20-02Z timeframe. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevailing through
today into tonight. Expect similar conditions for Thursday, with
MVFR CIGs possible Thursday AM at metro and coastal sites.

Adams

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Light to occasionally moderate winds and low seas will prevail into
the weekend, but the main story is multiple rounds of scattered
showers and storms due to a stalled frontal boundary lingering over
Southeast Texas through Saturday. Winds and seas will be higher in
and around any of the storms that pushes offshore. The front finally
pushes offshore late Saturday night/early Sunday morning with a
brief period of offshore winds before onshore flow quickly returns
by Monday afternoon. This extended period of onshore flow towards
midweek will lead to seas building up from 1-2 feet to around 3 feet.

Batiste

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Min RH`s should bottom out in the 45-60% range this
afternoon...quite a bit higher than yesterday. Winds should remain
light as well, so not planning on any Red Flag Warnings. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon...with even better
chances forecast for Thursday. Fuels remain dry, so will still
need to be aware of lightning strikes.

Adams

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 88 72 89 / 40 70 60 60
Houston (IAH) 76 90 74 90 / 50 60 50 60
Galveston (GLS) 79 89 79 88 / 50 60 50 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Batiste

[jasons2k]

My 70% chance of rain tomorrow and Friday was lowered down to 60% with this afternoon’s update.