September 2023

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211052
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

I miss the low humidity days already...unfortunately higher amounts
of humidity are here to stay for quite awhile. Even though Fall
(astronomical) starts in a couple of days, we`ll continue to roll
with summer-like temperatures going into the weekend. We all know
summer unofficially lasts till October down here anyway. Mid to
upper level ridging becomes amplified today as an upper level low
dips down into the western CONUS. 500mb heights subsequently rise to
590-592 dam by this afternoon with 850mb temperatures in the 18-21°C
range. It`s worth noting that 850mb temperatures are near the 99th
percentile and 700mb temperatures are at their MAX percentiles
through at least Friday...so yeah. With that in mind, I bumped up
high temperatures by a few degrees with mid to upper 90s expected.
With elevated amounts of humidity though, heat indices will continue
to reach the triple digits mainly in a range of 102-106°F. So, not
anticipating reaching the Heat Advisory criteria at this
time...which I`m hoping stays that because I mentioned at the end of
August that we were likely done with those for the year. So, if we
end up with a late season heat advisory, then that`s on me. Even
though we`ll have increasing moisture (PW values up to 1.7"-1.8"
this afternoon) and northwesterly flow aloft prevailing, the
increasing subsidence from the rising mid-level heights will limit
rain chances to around 20%.

Do you remember...the 21st night of September? With overnight
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and the potential for patchy
fog around the Brazos Valley...you may not want to remember it, but
that`s what we have in store unfortunately. On Friday, the upper
level low over the western CONUS begins tracking eastward towards
the Northern Plains. While this is going on, another upper level low
begins to develop off of the coast of the Carolinas. The end result
is our 500mb heights decrease a tad bit, so daytime highs will be
right around the same or one degree cooler than Thursday`s. Another
difference is greater amounts of moisture with PW values rising to
1.9"-2.1" on Friday afternoon (90th percentile: ~2.02"). Due to
that, a passing embedded shortwave trough, and a slight decrease in
subsidence aloft, chances for showers/thunderstorms are a bit higher
on Friday...but only up to 30%. Keep in mind that we still need
rain...all of Southeast Texas remains in at least an extreme drought
with some in an exceptional drought, so every little bit of rain we
can get would be beneficial. Friday night will be a copy and paste
of Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s and the
potential for another round of patchy fog up north.

Lastly, with today being World Gratitude Day, wanted to say thank
you to all of you that either always read these discussions or are
reading them for the first time or anywhere in-between. We are very
grateful for each and every one of you! Thank you and keep on being
awesome! ♥

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Hot and humid weather will persist through the weekend as
southeasterly flow brings moisture into the area and a mid-level
ridge over South Texas bringing rising heights over our area.
There will be the daily chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms near the coast thanks to daytime heating triggers
precipitation along the seabreeze. High temperatures Saturday and
Sunday will continue to be in the mid to upper 90s with heat
indices in the low triple digits. Overnight lows will be in the
mid to upper 70s.

A weak cold front associated with a low pressures system passing
to the north is expected to move into SE Texas late Sunday night
bringing with it a line of showers and thunderstorms. This front
will end up stalling somewhere near the coast continuing the rain
chances through mid week. However, the boundary may end up
stalling far enough south that the majority of the area remains
more dry than wet. Not anticipating any flooding concerns at this
time with expected totals up to 0.5 to 1", but any precipitation
will be helpful trying to alleviate the extreme to exceptional
drought SE Texas is experiencing. "Cooler" temperatures are
expected Monday through Wednesday with afternoon temperatures
rising into the low to mid 90s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Timing of the MVFR ceilings at our northern sites (CLL/UTS) has
been pushed back to 13Z. These lower ceilings are beginning to
fill in over central TX, so it appears it`s just a matter of time.
In addition to that, LBX has recently seen decreased visibilities
due to patchy fog. Expecting this to continue over through 14-15Z.
Outside of that, it`s mainly a wind forecast with light and
variable winds becoming southeasterly around 10 knots by the late
morning hours. Some isolated showers will be possible this morning
and afternoon along the coast, but coverage looks to be too low to
warrant throwing in VCSH at this time. Winds trend towards light
and variable again overnight with another round of MVFR ceilings
expected for CXO and northward on early Friday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Low seas and onshore flow will persist through the weekend with
speeds around 5 to 10kts during the morning and afternoon hours
and between 10 and 15kts during the evening and overnight hours.
There will be a slight chance of isolated showers and
thunderstorms each day in the coastal waters. A boundary will
approach the coastline Monday of next week bringing increased
chances of showers and thunderstorms and more variable winds.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 97 76 / 10 0 20 0
Houston (IAH) 96 77 95 76 / 20 10 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 89 81 / 30 20 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler

[DoctorMu]

Chances are roughly 90% of a SSWE this Winter.

Saw that tidbit in a newsletter yesterday.

I support this message.

We'll see more and more of these over time. Fingers crossed about the grid, but bring it!

[Stratton20]

90%? Why so high? Arent SSWE’s usually not all that common?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

90%? Why so high? Arent SSWE’s usually not all that common?

Nino plus descending easterly QBO = 9 times out of 10 winters it happens


But yes we normally don’t see that.

[Cromagnum]

When are we thinking our first real cool front to bring highs into the 70s or lower?

[djmike]

When are we thinking our first real cool front to bring highs into the 70s or lower?

Every once in a blue moon and every few years we will see a good strong front towards the end of September. I remember hurricane Ike and we had no power but a day or so after Ike passed, a strong front blew through and we were sooooo thankful. Right now I dont see a good strong one on the horizon but I would say Oct onward we should start. Just IMO only.

[Cpv17]

When are we thinking our first real cool front to bring highs into the 70s or lower?

Probably another 4 weeks.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We start stepping down the 4th. Lows in the low-mid 60s and highs in the 80s, so I’d say mid month.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yeah past this Sunday I see more 60s for lows than low 70s.

The last really hot Summer we had (2011), October turned in the 3rd week. I remember it well. I got married on Sunday 10-16-2011 and it was 85 degrees in CS. The next week it was 70 and I remembering how awesome that would have been for an outdoor wedding.

We don’t do Saturday weddings during the Fall

[Cpv17]

We start stepping down the 4th. Lows in the low-mid 60s and highs in the 80s, so I’d say mid month.

The latest CPC outlook for October still keeps us well above average temp wise. Not saying I buy I it though, cuz I do expect a sharp front to come in mid to late month.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 they have such a warm biacy, its really hard to take their monthly outlooks seriously anymore

[Cromagnum]

So when is the next real chance for rain. This little 20-30% piddly stuff isn't going to cut it.

[Cromagnum]

We start stepping down the 4th. Lows in the low-mid 60s and highs in the 80s, so I’d say mid month.

The latest CPC outlook for October still keeps us well above average temp wise. Not saying I buy I it though, cuz I do expect a sharp front to come in mid to late month.

I seem to recall in 2013 it didn't cool off until November. I remember because we were just in a new house, and our shutters were delayed twice so we baked that summer and fall.

[user:null]

Look at the radar now: storms forming no problem like in Liberty/Chambers counties (as usual) ... but also good development to the west in Wharton/Fort Bend (the cloud cover for the Ft. Bend cells is streaming over my home atm, though).

Yet, central Houston is always in the blank. Same sea-breeze, same heights, I don't know what is wrong with the area, but it misses out way too much (not that rain is absent, there's been some good totals: I'm talking more about getting the "core" of the hits regarding flooding deluges).

[Cpv17]

Look at the radar now: storms forming no problem like in Liberty/Chambers counties (as usual) ... but also good development to the west in Wharton/Fort Bend (the cloud cover for the Ft. Bend cells is streaming over my home atm, though).

Yet, central Houston is always in the blank. Same sea-breeze, same heights, I don't know what is wrong with the area, but it misses out way too much (not that rain is absent, there's been some good totals: I'm talking more about getting the "core" of the hits regarding flooding deluges).

Decent chance for everyone to get some rain on Monday.

[jasons2k]

Oak Ridge - New Caney game may be delayed. Might have to wait it out at Gringo’s with another margarita. Such a shame

[djmike]

Mosquitoes 🦟 are back in full force. Thats for sure! C’mon first strong front!

[DoctorMu]

I remember back in the about 1987 when I took a trip to Texas for the second time to visit family, a big blast moved through near mid-October and highs in San Antonio were in the 60s and lows in the 40s. I naively thought that every Fall was like that in Texas! lol

We did had some frosty Halloweens in the early to mid 90s. Then a frost Halloween again 2-3 years ago.

I am ready for the flip!

[jasons2k]

Decent shower in New Caney. Finally stopping. Should feel pleasant for the game.

[Cpv17]

Mosquitoes 🦟 are back in full force. Thats for sure! C’mon first strong front!

Not here. Haven’t seen one yet.