September 2023
The atmosphere over SE TX must not be very supportive of rain. Everything is going poof the closer it gets to us.
Storms look pretty weak sauce as they get closer. Fully expect not to get a damned thing as usual.
There's no point looking at the weather forecasters, they all suck.
Lies, damn lies, and forecasts?
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Shower/thunderstorm development so far this afternoon has been most-
ly limited to NE portions of the CWA...but still cannot rule out any
additional activity in the next few hours as the air mass over SE TX
continues to heat. For areas just north of us, SPC is closely watch-
ing for the possibility of strong to severe storms through sunset at
the very least. While the dynamics appear more favorable there, it`s
still close enough for an outside shot of strong storms making their
way into our northern counties. Stay tuned.
Otherwise, short-range guidance keeps the higher/better chances for
widespread rains in the forecast for late tonight through early Mon
morning with the passage of a weak surface boundary from the north.
Activity could reach our central counties just after midnight, then
stalling near/along the coast after sunrise. And with this boundary
lingering across the area, additional re-development could occur by
late Mon afternoon (...with the usual caveats concerning how worked
over the air mass will be and if there will be any additional heat-
ing/destabilization). Overnight rainfall totals should average from
one quarter to one half inch...with higher isolated amounts up to 1
to 2 inches. And with the increased POPs/clouds, highs tomorrow are
going to be cooler...ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. 41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Diffuse frontal boundary/wind shift will be in the process of
washing out in the region Tue-Wed. In the upper levels we`ll be
situated in a general weakness between ridging centered near Cabo
and a trough across the Midwest. Sufficient moisture availability and
the potential for some weak disturbances aloft will maintain chances
for scattered showers and thunderstorms...probably more diurnally
driven and across the southern 2/3 of the CWA.
Ridging will migrate back newd heading into the second parts of the
week as the next trof digs southward along the west coast. This
should suppress, but not eliminate, rain chances as time progresses.
Exception will probably be offshore and closer to the beaches where
moisture along the northern periphery of a somewhat stationary
trough in the south central Gulf could stream ne-sw across the
coast/waters at times. 47
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Shower/thunderstorm development so far this afternoon has been most-
ly limited to NE portions of the CWA...but still cannot rule out any
additional activity in the next few hours as the air mass over SE TX
continues to heat. For areas just north of us, SPC is closely watch-
ing for the possibility of strong to severe storms through sunset at
the very least. While the dynamics appear more favorable there, it`s
still close enough for an outside shot of strong storms making their
way into our northern counties. Stay tuned.
Otherwise, short-range guidance keeps the higher/better chances for
widespread rains in the forecast for late tonight through early Mon
morning with the passage of a weak surface boundary from the north.
Activity could reach our central counties just after midnight, then
stalling near/along the coast after sunrise. And with this boundary
lingering across the area, additional re-development could occur by
late Mon afternoon (...with the usual caveats concerning how worked
over the air mass will be and if there will be any additional heat-
ing/destabilization). Overnight rainfall totals should average from
one quarter to one half inch...with higher isolated amounts up to 1
to 2 inches. And with the increased POPs/clouds, highs tomorrow are
going to be cooler...ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. 41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Diffuse frontal boundary/wind shift will be in the process of
washing out in the region Tue-Wed. In the upper levels we`ll be
situated in a general weakness between ridging centered near Cabo
and a trough across the Midwest. Sufficient moisture availability and
the potential for some weak disturbances aloft will maintain chances
for scattered showers and thunderstorms...probably more diurnally
driven and across the southern 2/3 of the CWA.
Ridging will migrate back newd heading into the second parts of the
week as the next trof digs southward along the west coast. This
should suppress, but not eliminate, rain chances as time progresses.
Exception will probably be offshore and closer to the beaches where
moisture along the northern periphery of a somewhat stationary
trough in the south central Gulf could stream ne-sw across the
coast/waters at times. 47
&&
Widespread rains? More like widespread bust.
I don't know whether to believe today's prediction either.
I don't know whether to believe today's prediction either.
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023
A slow moving, weak front will be moving through the area today
bringing with it scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front is
fairly diffuse, so we won`t be getting a line of activity like we
would with a more robust FROPA. The exact locations of the storms
will be driven by mesoscale features/boundary interactions, so
forecasting that more than an hour or two out is very tricky.
However, the best chance for precipitation will be north of Conroe
through the mid morning, then transitioning to the I-10 corridor by
noon, and then closer to the coast in the late afternoon as the sea
breeze gets to interact with remnant outflow boundaries. The storms
that develop today will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall with rain rates of 1 to 2" per hour, hail, and strong to
even severe wind gusts. Coverage wanes by sunset, though could still
see some lingering coastal showers and storms into the overnight
hours.
The front that moves through the area will become more and more
diffuse as it does, but not totally wash out before stalling near
the coast through Tuesday (and beyond). So, expect additional
showers and thunderstorms to develop in the late morning to early
afternoon hours on Tuesday along the coast moving inland through the
late afternoon - though would be shocked if areas north of the
Houston Metro were able to get any meaningful rainfall on Tuesday.
There will be a bit of a high temperature gradient today from north
to south as the weak front pushes through the area. Areas north of
Conroe may only climb into the mid to upper 80s or near 90 degrees
today while areas along and south of I-10 get a bit more time in the
pre-frontal airmass/daytime heating thus getting into the mid 90s.
High temperatures on Tuesday will be more uniform with most of the
area getting into the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows tonight
will be in the low 70s for most of the region with the Houston Metro
and areas along the coast getting down into the mid to upper 70s.
Overnight lows on Tuesday will generally be the same for the
majority of the area, but areas north of Huntsville may get a few
degrees cooler as they get some clearing skies with lows
potentially as cool as the mid to upper 60s.
Fowler
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2023 6:57 am Widespread rains? More like widespread bust.
I don't know whether to believe today's prediction either.
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023
A slow moving, weak front will be moving through the area today
bringing with it scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front is
fairly diffuse, so we won`t be getting a line of activity like we
would with a more robust FROPA. The exact locations of the storms
will be driven by mesoscale features/boundary interactions, so
forecasting that more than an hour or two out is very tricky.
However, the best chance for precipitation will be north of Conroe
through the mid morning, then transitioning to the I-10 corridor by
noon, and then closer to the coast in the late afternoon as the sea
breeze gets to interact with remnant outflow boundaries. The storms
that develop today will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall with rain rates of 1 to 2" per hour, hail, and strong to
even severe wind gusts. Coverage wanes by sunset, though could still
see some lingering coastal showers and storms into the overnight
hours.
The front that moves through the area will become more and more
diffuse as it does, but not totally wash out before stalling near
the coast through Tuesday (and beyond). So, expect additional
showers and thunderstorms to develop in the late morning to early
afternoon hours on Tuesday along the coast moving inland through the
late afternoon - though would be shocked if areas north of the
Houston Metro were able to get any meaningful rainfall on Tuesday.
There will be a bit of a high temperature gradient today from north
to south as the weak front pushes through the area. Areas north of
Conroe may only climb into the mid to upper 80s or near 90 degrees
today while areas along and south of I-10 get a bit more time in the
pre-frontal airmass/daytime heating thus getting into the mid 90s.
High temperatures on Tuesday will be more uniform with most of the
area getting into the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows tonight
will be in the low 70s for most of the region with the Houston Metro
and areas along the coast getting down into the mid to upper 70s.
Overnight lows on Tuesday will generally be the same for the
majority of the area, but areas north of Huntsville may get a few
degrees cooler as they get some clearing skies with lows
potentially as cool as the mid to upper 60s.
FowlerYesterday was never really supposed to be the day for most of us. Today has always been the day. The HRRR looks promising for later this afternoon into the evening hours. Could be some hail producers with gusty winds if it verifies.
Summer just doesnt want to let go. I would have thought El Nino would have at least brought us the first noticable front by now. How much longer do we have to wait???
El Nino or otherwise, I remember several falls where we don't notice much improvement till late October or even November some years.
Late October to early November based on how the year has evolved so far is most likely time frame for a good front. 50's/70's.
According to Space City Weather, places north of I-10 better score big this morning. Because everything shifts southwards to the central metro coastward starting tomorrow.
Wildcard: if the front is more diffuse or slower progressing, that that would give more leeway for the entire area.
Wildcard: if the front is more diffuse or slower progressing, that that would give more leeway for the entire area.
The front is certainly going to be more diffuse. This definitely isn't going to be a line coming through this time around like a classic fall cold front.
It’s like pulling teeth to get some rain.
Yesterday was a big tease…I tried to upload some images but I’m getting an error message. Will try Storm2k.
Yesterday was a big tease…I tried to upload some images but I’m getting an error message. Will try Storm2k.
Whatever was coming this way fell apart right on cue.
So much for all that activity we should have been seeing along I10 by noon. There is effectively NOTHING on radar coming.
Wheres all the rain?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Yeah. Late this afternoon and into the evening hours look interesting.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2023 2:46 pmIt's late to the party. Looks like heating was needed to reach convective temperature. Could be interesting later this afternoon as maximum instability takes place.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
And the cells just split apart and went around me… I wouldn’t take any forecast from anyone seriously anymore, this is actually a joke, ill believe it when i see it