October 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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The first truly fall month. Will it start hot, normal or cool? Will it rain? We shall see.
Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 10:55 am The first truly fall month. Will it start hot, normal or cool? Will it rain? We shall see.
Watch for the potential of a pretty significant front mid to late October.
Stratton20
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Rainy and cooler than normal looks like a pretty good bet
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DoctorMu
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Word of the month: FROPA
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Fall Severe Weather season engage!

Maybe some 30s/40s late month around Halloween
Team #NeverSummer
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Ptarmigan
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El Nino in October is often wet. There have been floods.
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote: Tue Sep 19, 2023 9:27 pm El Nino in October is often wet. There have been floods.
Need an EPAC tropical system to feed the SJT firehose. Oct. 1994 (Hurricane Rosa remnants), for example.

https://abc13.com/river-fire-flood-san- ... o%20River.


https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-073-94/pdf/FS-94-073.pdf

https://www.chron.com/neighborhood/arti ... 737148.php
Cpv17
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Rain chances on the rise as we enter October!
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DoctorMu
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Around 100° around the Autumnal Equinox.

That's just wrong.
Stratton20
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Seeing some hints on the globals at our first real fall front around the 5th-7th timeframe in october, we will see
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 6:31 pm Seeing some hints on the globals at our first real fall front around the 5th-7th timeframe in october, we will see
Just in time for the Bama game. 230 kick so let’s get some dry air and 80s….
Team #NeverSummer
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Ptarmigan
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Heavy rain next week? Too early to tell.
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Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 9:53 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2023 6:31 pm Seeing some hints on the globals at our first real fall front around the 5th-7th timeframe in october, we will see
Just in time for the Bama game. 230 kick so let’s get some dry air and 80s….
I’ll be there again!
Stratton20
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gfs and CMC are hinting at our first potential major fall front in the 10-12 day period fwiw
Pas_Bon
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 12:43 pm gfs and CMC are hinting at our first potential major fall front in the 10-12 day period fwiw

Even though you’re an eaTme fan, I thank you for this information.
Cpv17
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Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 5:08 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 12:43 pm gfs and CMC are hinting at our first potential major fall front in the 10-12 day period fwiw

Even though you’re an eaTme fan, I thank you for this information.
I plan on going to the A&M vs LSU game in Baton Rouge at the end of the season. I hope it’s a night game so I can get the full experience of that crazy atmosphere.
Stratton20
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Now the Euro is starting to see a potential stronger fall front at the end of its run, we shall see
Pas_Bon
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 5:14 pm
Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 5:08 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 12:43 pm gfs and CMC are hinting at our first potential major fall front in the 10-12 day period fwiw

Even though you’re an eaTme fan, I thank you for this information.
I plan on going to the A&M vs LSU game in Baton Rouge at the end of the season. I hope it’s a night game so I can get the full experience of that crazy atmosphere.
It will be an experience you will not forget.
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Ptarmigan
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Shifting pattern in the horizon for the North Pacific? A more El Nino pattern?

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Ptarmigan
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Negative-Warm water around Japan. Cool water off the West Coast of America.
Positive-Cool water around Japan. Warm water off the West Coast of America.

Image

PDO does have an affect similar to El Nino or La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

We are currently in negative PDO. Strong El Nino can drive PDO into positive territory.
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