October 2023

[srainhoutx]

Picked up a steady soaking rain for about 8 hours.

And I put down coastal seed in the hay pasture yesterday, so perfect timing!


Y’all enjoy your hell weather on Friday! I will be in NE Tennessee enjoying Fall!

There's a chance of snow flurries across the highest peaks this weekend into Monday. Front looks stronger than our last, so expect temperatures in upper 40’s/low 50's behind the front. On my side of the Mountains we likely will be stuck in the upper 30’s to low 40's for highs on Sunday.

[jasons2k]

Got 0.33” here

[Ptarmigan]

Super Typhoon Bolaven underwent rapid intensification. It has 180 mph winds and 900 millibars per Dvorak. I think it is more intense, likely around 190 to 195 mph and central pressure of 880 to 895 millibars.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Picked up a steady soaking rain for about 8 hours.

And I put down coastal seed in the hay pasture yesterday, so perfect timing!


Y’all enjoy your hell weather on Friday! I will be in NE Tennessee enjoying Fall!

There's a chance of snow flurries across the highest peaks this weekend into Monday. Front looks stronger than our last, so expect temperatures in upper 40’s/low 50's behind the front. On my side of the Mountains we likely will be stuck in the upper 30’s to low 40's for highs on Sunday.

My heart be still! Swoon

[TexasBreeze]

Looks like great weather to start an all Texas ALCS matchup Astros and Rangers!

[Cpv17]

Super Typhoon Bolaven underwent rapid intensification. It has 180 mph winds and 900 millibars per Dvorak. I think it is more intense, likely around 190 to 195 mph and central pressure of 880 to 895 millibars.

This is awesome! This is currently happening? I wasn’t even aware of this lol

[Stratton20]

Good luck my astros peeps! May the best texas team win! Gonna be a fun series!

[Cromagnum]

Was driving home from work at dusk and when I crossed by the rice fields along 288 there were so many mosquitoes it sounded like I was driving in the rain. When I got home, there were thousands splattered all over my truck. I have no idea why they didn't start aerial spraying a few days after all that rain.

[jasons2k]

Was driving home from work at dusk and when I crossed by the rice fields along 288 there were so many mosquitoes it sounded like I was driving in the rain. When I got home, there were thousands splattered all over my truck. I have no idea why they didn't start aerial spraying a few days after all that rain.

Wow, that’s insane. I had a similar experience with May Flies on 1960 going over the Lake Houston bridge back in 2004-ish. They were swarming. Never seen that many mosquitoes on a vehicle before.

[Ptarmigan]

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is getting cooler.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ ... v5.pdo.dat



El Nino is strong. Large area of the ocean is warm. What role could it play?

[Stratton20]

Might have to watch the model trends in the coming week, models are starting to show a trough diving down and becoming cut off over the state in the hour 192-216 period

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Halfway to Knoxville. Weather is better out here in Mississippi and much greener!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Satellite imagery and surface observations show a mid latitude
cyclone spanning across the Plains this morning, centered over the
state of Nebraska. The cold front associated with this boundary has
already pushed through the TX Panhandle, currently spanning from
Wichita Falls to Midland. This cold front should continue to push
south/southeasterly throughout the day as it`s parent surface
cyclone treks eastward into the Mississippi River Valley. Short term
guidance shows a pre-frontal trough entering SE Texas during the mid
morning/early afternoon today, bringing a westerly wind shift with
highs progged for the 80s/lower 90s. The front itself should reach
the Brazos Valley around 3-6 PM, later passing through the Houston
Metro area by around 8-11 PM, then offshore around midnight to 2 AM.
PWs should rise to around 1.3-1.6" ahead of the frontal, though CAMs
still keep much of SE Texas dry with limited shower/storm activity.

Gusty northerly flow brought upon by the FROPA should funnel cooler,
drier air into the region over the next several days, ushering in a
cooling trend. Lows tonight should be in the lower 50s/upper 60s.
Highs for Saturday should be in the 70s/lower 80s. Lows for Saturday
Night will be in the 50s inland and lower 60s along the coastline.

Dry conditions and clear skies will provide optimal viewing
conditions state-wide for Saturday`s Annular Solar Eclipse. The path
of annularity will cross through Midland, San Angelo, San Antonio
and Corpus Christi, with annularity occurring from around 11:45 AM
to 12:00 PM. For the Houston Area, the eclipse should obscure around
85% of the sun, reaching maximum coverage around 11:58 AM. Those
planning to view the eclipse should use proper solar/eclipse glasses
(specifically those that meet ISO 12312-2 requirements). Optical
devices like cameras, binoculars and telescopes will also require
their own solar filters for safe eclipse viewing (eclipse glasses
alone will NOT protect you when using these devices).

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

An eastern trough and a western ridge aloft will keep a dry northwest
flow across the area in the Sunday through Tuesday time period. A north-
south oriented surface high will build into the state through this period
resulting in persistent north winds that will help to keep the area
on the cool side (lows in the 40s/50s and highs in the 60s/70s).
As the surface high begins to move off to the east beginning late on
Tuesday, an onshore flow comes back to the area and helps to set up
a warming trend (lows Tuesday night mainly in the 50s, highs Wednesday
back into the 80s, lows Wednesday night in the 50s/60s and highs Thursday
in the 80s once again). This flow will also result in an increase in
moisture levels, and the current forecast has low rain chances returning
to the area on Thursday afternoon. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

MVFR CIGS are expected across portions of SE Texas early today.
Expect CIGS to scatter & lift during the late morning/early
afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. Winds shift
westerly this afternoon with the arrival of a pre-frontal trough. A
cold front is expected enter SE Texas during the late
afternoon/early evening hours, pushing offshore overnight and
bringing breezy northerly winds into Saturday. No rain is expected
with this front.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Light to moderate onshore winds will persist until the next cold front
pushes through the area tonight. Moderate to strong offshore winds and
elevated seas in the wake of the front could last through Monday. Winds
are likely to reach Small Craft Advisory levels at times. Seas could
reach advisory criteria as well, especially for the offshore waters.
Winds are expected to decrease late Monday and on into Tuesday, eventually
becoming onshore again by the middle of next week. 42

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Drier conditions and breezy winds may lead to elevated fire weather
conditions on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity should drop to
roughly 30-35% on Saturday with northerly winds 10-15 MPH expected
across SE Texas. Fuel moisture has improved with recent rainfall,
though 10 hr fuel moisture is forecasted to drop under the 10th
percentile in the wake of today`s front.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 57 75 54 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 62 76 58 / 10 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 70 76 63 / 0 20 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Adams

[sambucol]

Does anyone know what the weather will be like in Harlingen on Monday and Tuesday? Best friend’s sister’s funeral is Tuesday, and visitation on Monday. Best friend asked if I could find out about the weather. Thank you.

[jasons2k]

Does anyone know what the weather will be like in Harlingen on Monday and Tuesday? Best friend’s sister’s funeral is Tuesday, and visitation on Monday. Best friend asked if I could find out about the weather. Thank you.

I’m so sorry to hear about your friend’s loss.

Here is the Harlingen forecast from the NWS:

Monday
Sunny, with a high near 80. North wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 56. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light north after midnight.

Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

[Cpv17]

What the heck? We’re actually getting a decent lil shower over here right now. I thought this front was supposed to come in completely dry. A really nice surprise. Actually might end up getting a quarter inch outta this. I’ll gladly take it.

[DoctorMu]

The cold front came through CLL about 5 pm. The forecast could not be better over the next 4-5 days.

Chamber of Commerces: call your photographers.

[Cpv17]

Stanford just made an epic comeback to beat Colorado 46-43 in triple OT freaking love it!

[DoctorMu]

Not a cloud in the azure blue sky. Dry, North Carolina-like fall day. 67°F, 41°DP, N 12 wind. Right in the sweet spot. Glorious.

And perfect annular eclipse weather.

[DoctorMu]

Oh, and our grass is still green. Another dose of prophylactic fungicide to be deposited. Dare I weed and feed, to to be rid of those annoying November weeds?