October 2023

[Cromagnum]

Still looking like a washout for central into west Texas this week? Was planning to head out south of Abilene to work at the ranch, but not if we we are getting a drenching out there.

[DoctorMu]

The Ensembles and CMC have the FROPA blowing in on Halloween, appropriately. I'll go with the consensus until further notice.

[DoctorMu]

Still looking like a washout for central into west Texas this week? Was planning to head out south of Abilene to work at the ranch, but not if we we are getting a drenching out there.

Looks like a soaker this week for the Hill Country and West Texas...but probably not for us.

[Cpv17]

The last few runs of the GFS are no longer looking too good for rain in southeast TX. Go figure.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’d rather central and West central cash in instead of us.

It will help the cattle industry and highland lakes.

[DoctorMu]

As expected, the rain chance for tomorrow tanked from 70% to 30-40%.


I hate having to water in October. I need to get some sulfur pellets. The dang water here is full of sodium and thus alkaline.

[Stratton20]

Both the GFS and CMC 00z Runs are coming in much colder, GFS highs in the upper 40’s to around 50 degrees for many on halloween, this front is going to be a big doosy

[Cpv17]

Both the GFS and CMC 00z Runs are coming in much colder, GFS highs in the upper 40’s to around 50 degrees for many on halloween, this front is going to be a big doosy

A good -EPO will do that.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Weimar to Austin has picked up nice showers this morning.

I drove in it all the way to AUS. Speaking of, I picked the wrong morning to fly out of Bergstrom. Every F1 racing fan across the globe was checking in at 6 am this morning.

[Cromagnum]

Thought today was supposed to be rainy, especially this morning. So much for that.

[Stratton20]

And the GFS and CMC 12z runs continue to come in even colder with the front, with overrunning precipitation behind the front with the cmc even showing some snow in west central texas, if these runs verify, we could be looking at our coldest halloween in years

[Cpv17]

And the GFS and CMC 12z runs continue to come in even colder with the front, with overrunning precipitation behind the front with the cmc even showing some snow in west central texas, if these runs verify, we could be looking at our coldest halloween in years

That -EPO is something serious showing up on both the operationals and ensembles.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 no kidding, thats some strong blocking over alaska, Euro has been trending colder as well, I think you’re prediction about a strong october cold snap is going to be on the money haha

[Cpv17]

The overnight lows don’t look overly cold (at least not yet) for next week but the afternoon highs look impressively cold for late October standards. I actually think the CMC has the best handle on it right now. The GFS still looks a bit too warm.

[sambucol]

This sounds great. What do the models show for afternoon highs on these latest runs now?

[tireman4]

Is it me, or are the NWS links not working?

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... &map_y=134

An error occurred while processing your request.
Reference #102.ef3b2f17.1698085232.2021e14

[Rip76]

Is it me, or are the NWS links not working?

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... &map_y=134

An error occurred while processing your request.
Reference #102.ef3b2f17.1698085232.2021e14

Looks down to me.

[Stratton20]

sambucol highs generally in the upper 40’s to low 50’s, but the CMC is even colder with highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s for extreme parts of se texas, its still early, but the trend is a cery cold halloween could be in store

[Cpv17]

sambucol highs generally in the upper 40’s to low 50’s, but the CMC is even colder with highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s for extreme parts of se texas, its still early, but the trend is a cery cold halloween could be in store

I think a reasonable solution for now would be to meet in the middle between the GFS and CMC with a slight edge to the CMC depending on how much overrunning occurs.

[Cpv17]

The CPC is now onboard for next week:



And at the same time: