December 2023

[MontgomeryCoWx]

AI modeling? Saw Cosgrove mentioned about Christmas- new years week getting interesting, mentioned AI modeling as well, wonder how useful that will be with forecasts, must be something new because ive never heard of that until today

It’s relatively new. Been in production a while but being used more frequently the last couple of quarters, especially the last quarter for Nat Gas traders

[jasons2k]

Defining those terms is a slippery slope. Machine Learning is a subcomponent of AI and the models have been incorporating machine learning for decades now. The way the models were built in the first place isn’t very different from machine learning. Conceptually it’s the same - you get a set of initial conditions, run a set of possible outcomes, choose the most accurate outcomes verified against the control (the actual weather verification), rinse and repeat to improve the outcome. We’ve been essentially doing that since 1956 with every model update but now it’s accelerating like an exponential curve with today’s computing power.

Interestingly, AI is now advancing at a much faster rate than Moore’s law. It’s exciting and scary all at once.

[jasons2k]

I almost forgot why I stopped by. Here is an update from Jeff:

Strong cold front will move across the area Saturday afternoon and evening.

Southerly flow overnight has helped to begin the return of moisture to the region and with that the low clouds, drizzle, and light rain this morning. This activity should continue through mid morning with scattered showers evolving into the early afternoon hours mainly south of I-10 as a weak disturbance moves overhead in the southwest flow aloft.

An upper level storm system currently over the Rockies will eject into the plains with surface low pressure forming in New Mexico later today and moving toward the Great Lakes by Sunday. This surface low will sweep a strong cold front across Texas on Saturday. While moisture profiles will be plentiful ahead of this front, 850mb winds turn southwest and a strong aping inversion develops tonight over the area and will linger into Saturday. With abundant low clouds in place on Saturday only modest heating into the upper 70’s is expected, and this will likely fall short of enough heating to break through the capping inversion and generally prevent much in the way of active weather. Lift along with incoming front should be enough to get a line of showers and thunderstorms going with the greatest and most intense activity to the northeast of Houston around Lake Livingston and likely just a think line of showers around Matagorda Bay where capping will be greatest. While SPC has parts of the area outlooked for a severe risk on Saturday, think the severe threat will be more into Louisiana and the ARKLATX area.

Bigger news is the sharp drop in temperatures with the front and onset of strong northerly winds Saturday evening. Front will arrive across the Brazos Valley in the early to mid afternoon and clear the coast by early to mid evening. Temperatures in the 70’s will fall into the 50’s behind the front and then into the 40’s by Sunday morning with gusty northerly winds of 15-25mph and gust up to 35-40mph Saturday night. Compared to today and Saturday…Saturday night and Sunday will feel like winter.

Temperatures will only warm into the 50’s on Sunday even with mostly clear skies.

Next item is low temperatures on Monday AM…current guidance suggests a light freeze for areas along and north of US 59 away from the urban areas. With clear skies, light winds, and low dewpoints will have to watch how temperature guidance trends over the next 24-48 hours as low 30’s down toward the US 59 corridor and south of there in the usual cold spots is looking at least possible.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yep, I’m expected to freeze Monday morning. First freeze comes one day before the average first day.

[Cpv17]

Yep, I’m expected to freeze Monday morning. First freeze comes one day before the average first day.

I don’t think we’ll hit freezing here. I’m expecting about 35-36 for my area. Weimar is usually about 2-4 degrees colder than my location.

[Pas_Bon]

No freezing temps forecast for League City/Galveston County, but consistently seeing mid/upper 30's for Sunday night. I'll take it.

[jasons2k]

I think it’s still too early to pin down Monday’s freeze line. It could be further south than currently forecast, hence Jeff’s comments about monitoring the trends over the next couple of days. FWIW I’m preparing for the worst and have mentally prepared that Sunday evening I’ll be bundling-up and moving things into the garage. I’m currently forecast at 34 and that’s too close to comfort knowing how many times they drop the lows at the last minute, sometimes even after the 4pm package goes out. I’d prefer not to be unprepared for an 11pm freeze warning again.

[Stratton20]

Hope the weather next week / especially thursday isnt bad, im graduating from Texas A&M with a degree in environmental studies! I joined this group right as i began my first year at A&M, amazing how fast time goes by

[jasons2k]

Tomorrow is looking iffy on the rain. Not surprised.

[Cpv17]

Tomorrow is looking iffy on the rain. Not surprised.

You might get a quarter or half inch up there. Doubt I’ll get anything down here though. I’m expecting a big fat goose egg, so even if I can a tenth of an inch I’ll consider it a win.

[tireman4]

Hope the weather next week / especially thursday isnt bad, im graduating from Texas A&M with a degree in environmental studies! I joined this group right as i began my first year at A&M, amazing how fast time goes by

Congratulations. What will you do after graduation?

[Stratton20]

tireman4 not entirely sure yet, im exploring my options, hopefully something to do with the weather though given its one of my biggest passions

[Cpv17]

tireman4 not entirely sure yet, im exploring my options, hopefully something to do with the weather though given its one of my biggest passions

Stick with what you’re passionate about. In the end it’ll make you a successful person. Don’t let money be a deciding factor either. If you find a job making big money that you’re passionate about then it’s a win win situation but just make sure you’re passionate about your job, because in the end, the money will come with your success. When I was in my teenage years, all I cared about was money and wanting a six-figure income. I found out the hard way that’s the wrong mentality to have. Also, don’t let your parents spoil you too much. Be as independent as possible. My mom spoiled the heck outta me and it really stunted my growth.

[Cpv17]

The 12z EPS has a pretty good signal for rain. Love what I’m seeing there.

[Ptarmigan]

Defining those terms is a slippery slope. Machine Learning is a subcomponent of AI and the models have been incorporating machine learning for decades now. The way the models were built in the first place isn’t very different from machine learning. Conceptually it’s the same - you get a set of initial conditions, run a set of possible outcomes, choose the most accurate outcomes verified against the control (the actual weather verification), rinse and repeat to improve the outcome. We’ve been essentially doing that since 1956 with every model update but now it’s accelerating like an exponential curve with today’s computing power.

Interestingly, AI is now advancing at a much faster rate than Moore’s law. It’s exciting and scary all at once.

There is also quantum computing.
https://www.ibm.com/topics/quantum-computing

Quantum computers can be used to solve complex problems that traditional computers cannot. They can solve the traveling salesman problem. It could be used weather forecast.

[Pas_Bon]

Quantum computing will prove to be one of the greatest technological leaps in human history. Y’all think technological advancements happen quickly now? Wait until quantum computing pervades almost every aspect of technology. The potential applications are mind-boggling.

[cperk]

Hope the weather next week / especially thursday isnt bad, im graduating from Texas A&M with a degree in environmental studies! I joined this group right as i began my first year at A&M, amazing how fast time goes by

Congradulations.

[javakah]

Nearly 80 degrees here, but other parts of the state (Amarillo) are below freezing right now. Always wild.

[Stratton20]

Models are trending towards bringing the cut off low next week much closer to our neck of the woods, that could help rain chances around here, fingers crossed

[jasons2k]

Congratulations to you Stratton!

As for the weather, playing-out as expected - from the NWS:

Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 32. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.