December 2023

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 131147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023

Showers are working their way into southern counties this morning
from South Texas courtesy of a weak disturbance just off the coast.
The bulk of the activity should remain to our south and west;
however, as activity works its way north, could see isolated
activity in the southern and western counties. Expect skies to be
mostly cloudy today with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s north of
I-10 and in the low to mid 60s south of I-10. Lows tonight will drop
into the 40s to low 50s north of I-10 and into the low 50s south of
I-10.

A mid to upper level low positioned over the Four Corners will
deepen and make its way east into Texas over the course of Thursday,
setting the stage for the next round of rain (more on that in the
long-term forecast). Closer to the surface, stronger high pressure
centered over the Appalachian region and a rather messy area of low
pressure will create a tightening pressure gradient and lead to
breezy conditions along the coast. Once again, the majority of
showers should remain north and west of our area; however, some
showers may make it into far western counties. Highs for Thursday
will be slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper 60s area
wide. Lows will be in the upper 40s in the northernmost counties and
low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023

A strong upper level low from the West will encroach SE Texas
through the day on Friday. The start of the day will feature mostly
cloudy skies, isolated coastal showers, and breezy easterly winds.
However the end of the day will be quite different as the bulk of
the moisture associated with this approaching low swings through the
area. We can expect increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms to
build in from the west during the early afternoon with the
precipitation increasing in coverage and intensity through the
evening. The widespread rainfall, including some locally heavy
downpours, will continue through Friday night with the precipitation
ending from west to east Saturday morning. May want to make sure to
plan for a messy commute Friday evening. Rainfall totals will
generally be up to 1 to 2", with isolated higher amounts closer to
4" if any training storms set up. WPC maintains the Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall across the region on Friday
with the main impacts being some minor urban and small stream
flooding.

Breezy northerly winds will develop in the wake of the exiting
system on Saturday that will persist through Sunday with high
pressure building in through Tuesday continuing the dry, sunny
conditions for SE Texas.

Temperatures on Friday will be slightly below normal thanks to the
increased cloud cover and precipitation with high temperatures in
the mid to upper 60s expected. Slightly cooler conditions are
expected Friday night compared to Thursday night (lows in the upper
40s to low 50s) thanks to some of the cooler air filtering in behind
the departing low pressure system - but cloud cover will prevent too
much cooling. This cloud cover is not an issue through the weekend
through with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and lows in
the upper 30s to low/mid 40s. Very slight warming is expected on
Monday and Tuesday during the day as the cool northerly wind
subsides, but the clear skies will keep the chilly nights in place.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 544 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023

VFR prevailing through the period. Light showers are working
their way through western counties with VSCH at SGR and CLL
terminals. Activity should continue through the day and wane off
tonight. Winds will generally be light out of the east. Winds
could gust to around 25 knots at GLS terminal.

Adams

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023

A rather messy few days are expected across the coastal waters as
easterly winds increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms begin today and persist
through Friday morning - then increasing in coverage and intensity
Friday afternoon through late Saturday morning as the disturbance
moves through the region. Some lingering showers will be possible
through Saturday afternoon.

Small Craft Advisories go into effect this morning across the Gulf
Waters (and small craft should exercise caution in the Bays) as the
easterly winds increase to 20 to 25kts with gusts 30kts begins
bringing seas to 5 to 8ft. Conditions deteriorate tonight with the
easterly flow increasing to 25 to 30kts with gusts to 35kts and seas
to 7 to 10ft+ expected which will persist through Friday afternoon.
There may be a brief lull in the moderate to strong winds Friday
evening, but then moderate to strong northerly winds (20 to 30kts
sustained with gusts to 35kts) will develop behind the exiting
disturbance Friday night/Saturday morning. These conditions will
continue through Sunday morning. Seas will be a little slower to
lower with 4 to 6ft continuing into Sunday night.

The persistent, strong onshore winds will bring elevated high tides
Thursday evening and Friday evening. P-ETSS guidance currently has
high tides around 3.5ft above MLLW which is typically when we start
to see some minor coastal flooding near Crystal Beach and Surfside.
The increased seas and wave periods of 8 to 10 seconds will also
result in increased wave runup along the beaches. A Beach Hazards
Statement or Coastal Flood Advisory may issued in later forecast
packages if these forecasts persist.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 48 66 51 / 20 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 63 50 65 54 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 63 55 64 57 / 0 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 AM CST this morning
through late Thursday night for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST this morning
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Friday
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Fowler

[jasons2k]

Someone might want to tell the NWS to peek at the radar. No mention of rain in today’s forecast but I think I need to make a quick dash outside. I had left my plant covers outside to air out but the radar shows they are about to get soaked.

[Cpv17]

Someone might want to tell the NWS to peek at the radar. No mention of rain in today’s forecast but I think I need to make a quick dash outside. I had left my plant covers outside to air out but the radar shows they are about to get soaked.

No kidding. I looked at the forecast last night and no mention of rain today. Woke up this morning and it was raining. Crazy!

[Pas_Bon]

Someone might want to tell the NWS to peek at the radar. No mention of rain in today’s forecast but I think I need to make a quick dash outside. I had left my plant covers outside to air out but the radar shows they are about to get soaked.

I just thought the same thing. Looked up Katy to make sure it wasn’t noise on radar. Not a single forecast I saw - other than Space City Weather, of course - for today ever even called for any trace of rain.

[tireman4]

Well, they kinda did.."Showers are working their way into southern counties this morning
from South Texas courtesy of a weak disturbance just off the coast.
The bulk of the activity should remain to our south and west;
however, as activity works its way north, could see isolated
activity in the southern and western counties."..LOL

[Cromagnum]

0% chance of rain today, so what happens? It rains on my freshly washed and waxed car on the drive to work and suddenly more on the way. These forecasts are awful.

[Ptarmigan]

Talk about a bust right there.

[dp6]

Just checked my local NWS, current conditions says Light Rain and 53, yet forecast doesn't show any rain, just mostly cloudy. But if you go to the Hourly graph box it shows a 9% chance of rain. Which fits with the look of the radar, so maybe the policy is to not mention rain chances on the local forecast pages if the rain chances are under 10%?

Though I'm in San Antonio at the moment, a different office from the quirkier Houston, which for some odd reason seems to refuse to ever put out a 'Hazardous Weather Outlook'. Always funny to see the map with the counties of every surrounding office in the tan HWO shade, while the Houston office counties always remain an unchanged base white. So maybe their policy is potato.

[captainbarbossa19]

Hey everyone! It has been a while, but I am back! The fall semester is over and I am officially 3 semesters away from earning my bachelor's degree in meteorology now! Glad to see that the weather pattern has finally become more progressive for the South. The drought was absolutely horrible for areas around Jackson earlier this semester.

[869MB]

Hey everyone! It has been a while, but I am back! The fall semester is over and I am officially 3 semesters away from earning my bachelor's degree in meteorology now! Glad to see that the weather pattern has finally become more progressive for the South. The drought was absolutely horrible for areas around Jackson earlier this semester.

Good deal! Your area should benefit from an increasingly active weather pattern through at least late May of 2024 due to our late blooming El Niño. The March through early May time period may very well produce periodic severe weather events including one or two significant tornado outbreaks across your region. Of course this is not a forecast, but more of my personal expectations going into 2024. Long story short, I expect the drought in your area to be totally gone by early June and will be really surprised if it isn’t.

[tireman4]

Hey everyone! It has been a while, but I am back! The fall semester is over and I am officially 3 semesters away from earning my bachelor's degree in meteorology now! Glad to see that the weather pattern has finally become more progressive for the South. The drought was absolutely horrible for areas around Jackson earlier this semester.

Captain Our Captain!! So proud of you!! Make sure to come in and visit us in 2024!!

[DoctorMu]

FROPA and ULL will enter the area tomorrow, mostly Friday night.

It looks like a great weekend after that!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1105 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023

Isolate light showers are occurring over the southernmost counties,
courtesy of isentropic ascent. Morning showers along the coast and
southern counties should taper off this afternoon, giving way to
partly cloudy skies as ridging sets up ahead of the next
disturbance. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today with
highs in the mid to upper 60s area wide. Lows tonight will drop into
the 50s.

Rain chances return Friday courtesy of an upper-level low over the
panhandle and developing surface trough. These features are
projected to deepen as they track east Friday, with an area of 500mb
vorticity appearing in areas north of I-10. As mentioned in the
previous forecast, QPF will likely be higher north of the Houston
metro given the better dynamics and upward movement. Nonetheless, as
this feature makes its way east towards our area, expect showers to
become more widespread from west to east during the afternoon hours
Friday.

WPC does have the entire area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall, as some these showers could produce locally
heavy rainfall and result in isolated flash flooding events.

Highs for Friday will be in the 60s with lows dropping into the 40s
and 50s Friday night.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023

The upper level low that brought the widespread rainfall Friday
night will be departing to the east on Saturday. There will be some
lingering showers early Saturday morning, but we can expect the
precipitation to end from west to east during the late morning.
Burleson County will likely see the last of the showers around
daybreak Saturday, while Chambers County may see some light showers
through as late as Noon Saturday. Clearing skies can be expected
through the afternoon along with breezy northerly winds that will
persist through Saturday night. High pressure at the surface and
ridging aloft will bring clear, dry, and cool conditions to SE Texas
through midweek next week.

High temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s as
CAA increases in the wake of the departing disturbance. Overnight
low temperatures will be in the upper 30s north of Huntsville
Saturday night with the rest of the region in the low to mid 40s.
Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be generally the same,
though with slight warming trend during the daytime hours. High
temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s with overnight lows
ranging from the mid/upper 30s across the north to low to mid 40s
along the coast.

&&

[Cpv17]

Tomorrow doesn’t look like much on the mesoscale models but we’ll see what happens. I’ll be happy with a half inch.

[Ptarmigan]

Sunspot Region Produces X2.8 Flare, Largest Since Sep 10, 2017
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/sunspot- ... ep-10-2017

Strong solar flare has arrived.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 151125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 218 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

It`s cold front day! The upper-level low that will be bringing
this cold front through is currently deepening in the Texas
Panhandle and it will be traveling eastward through the day.
Temperatures across SE Texas this afternoon will rise into the mid
to upper 60s (or even low 70s) as WAA increases ahead of the
front. Some isolated coastal showers will be possible during the
afternoon, but the best chance of precipitation will be with the
frontal passage itself this evening/overnight tonight. The front
will be slowly sweeping through the area from NW to SE entering
the Burleson-Houston County line around 5 to 6pm, Houston Metro
midnight to 3am, and then off the coast by 6 to 8am Saturday.
Generally expecting light to moderate rainfall rates, though some
pockets of locally heavy rainfall will be possible - especially
north of the Houston Metro which has a bit better dynamics.
Isolated rumbles of thunder can also be expected with the FROPA.
By Saturday morning, generally everyone across SE Texas will
likely to have seen some amount of rainfall with areas south of
I-10 around 0.5-1", and areas north of I-10 getting around
0.75-2". Isolated higher amounts will be possible that may lead to
some minor street ponding. WPC maintains the Marginal Risk (level
1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for most of the area tonight with
the exception of Jackson and portions of Matagorda counties. The
biggest impact from the rainfall will be its assistance in
eliminating more of the already shrinking drought across the area.

Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front, but
unlike the last cold front the airmass behind the front is more
Pacific- like than Artic-like - so, not expecting a drastic drop
in temperatures. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the
upper 50s to low 60s (but a chilly northerly wind may make it feel
colder than it is). Temperatures Saturday night will drop down
into the upper 30s to low 40s for much of the region. Portions of
Houston County may dip down into the mid 30s and even approach
freezing. These cooler, drier conditions will be sticking around
for much of the Long Term below.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

Benign weather conditions are expected to prevail for much of the
long term forecast as drier air and high pressure work together
to inhibit rain chances over Southeast Texas through the first
half of the upcoming week. Sunday will remain cool with mostly
clear skies and highs mainly in the low 60s. The highs will
slightly rise on Monday, but are expected to remain in the 60s
areawide. On Tuesday, a slight increase in low level moisture
could bring us decent cloud coverage during the day and an upper
level shortwave could push across Texas sometime late Tues into
early Wednesday. Wednesday into Thursday, a little more moisture
will move in from the Gulf waters increasing the highs into the
upper 60s to low 70s and keeping skies between partly cloudy to
mostly cloudy. A few passing showers are also possible over the
coastal waters and coastal locations.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 455 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

A SCT to BKN cloud deck around 2000ft will prevail through the
afternoon with southerly winds around 10kt. Isolated to scattered
light rain showers will begin to pop up during the afternoon and
continue until a cold front`s passage later this evening to
tonight. CIGs will lower to around 700 to 1200ft this evening
ahead of the cold front, and will remain at the level for a few
hours after the frontal passage. The front is expected to move
through the area from NW to SE crossing CLL around 00-03z, IAH
around 07-09z, and then off the coast by 11-13z Saturday morning.
A line of moderate to heavy rainfall will accompany the FROPA
bringing visibilities down to 3 to 6 miles. Cannot out-rule some
isolated thunderstorms embedded in the line of shower either, but
chances are fairly low that any specific terminal will see TS. Winds
will be variable with the frontal passage as well with breezy
northerly winds developing Saturday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect as hazardous marine
conditions continue through the end of the weekend with moderate
to strong winds and seas of 6 to 11 feet. In addition, high risk
of rip currents is also anticipated along with elevated waters
along the Gulf facing coasts. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in
effect through this evening with the potential to be extended
through later tonight.

Today, winds will continue easterly today and slightly weaken
tonight just ahead of the next cold front. Once the front passes
through the coastal waters late night into early Saturday morning,
winds will quickly strengthen again and turn northerly. A few
gusts near gale strength is possible at times. Although winds
begin to relax Sunday morning, seas will take a little longer to
subside, but could lower to below SCA criteria sometime Sunday
late afternoon or evening. Expect periods of showers and
thunderstorms today, continuing into early Saturday morning. Winds
and seas could be higher in and near strong thunderstorms.

Early next week, drier and cooler conditions are expected. Winds
will turn from northerly on Monday to east southeasterly on
Tuesday as high pressure moves across the region. Light to
moderate onshore winds prevail through the rest of the work week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 50 60 36 / 70 80 0 0
Houston (IAH) 69 55 61 42 / 30 90 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 56 61 46 / 30 80 30 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ350-355-370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...24

[DoctorMu]

Most of the energy will be N and E of CLL. Looking pretty busty. We'll probably have some light showers tonight.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like the front is coming through much slower, and will be here overnight now.

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS looks really good for rain over the next couple weeks but it’s burned us too many times to be trusted. Same goes for all the models. I might start to believe it if we can get it inside of 3 days.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 heck i might not even believe models with rain until we are 24 hours from the event, too many busted events

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

Not many changes made to the ongoing TAFs in the 18z package...just
some subtle tweaks to pin precip timing down in association with
the frontal boundary that`ll be passing ese across the area late
today and overnight. A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions for the next
several hours trend downward to MVFR areawide this evening...eventually
IFR as the showers move into the region. Cannot rule out a few
embedded elevated tstms and reduced vsby in moderate downpours,
but severe is not anticipated. Fairly rapid clearing is anticipated
Saturday morning. 47