January 2024

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Only had .50” here. Once again, underperforming and less rain than expected, at least here. I know some places got decent rains but that dry slot killed it for a lot of us.

Back to work today, so I’m officially done with cold weather for the season. Bring on spring.

You need to have cold air build in place somewhere before it can get here…

Very high probability WCAN gets in the icebox next week and week after and then reloads with our blocking pattern setting up week 2.

[don]

Picked up over 1" last night. Outside of a dry slot around Montgomery County most people received the forecasted amounts by HGX of .50-1"of rain.Not a bust IMO.

[Pas_Bon]

Got over 1.5" in League City
Yay

[Cromagnum]

Was barely dried out from previously and got about 1.75" more last night. Yard is a bog.

[don]

The CMC has shifted south with the ULL like the ICON. Could be looking at a major storm on Monday.

[DoctorMu]

The CMC has shifted south with the ULL like the ICON. Could be looking at a major storm on Monday.

Yes, indeed. Wintry stuff is creeping closer and closer. We're primed for that Jan 20-30 window per CoCoWx

[DoctorMu]

1.72 inches here for our rain event yesterday.

That should end the drought for now. Looking forward to more wintry stuff. It's a decent setup for the last half of Jan. We'll still need some mega luck!

[snowman65]

Will need super duper mega major luck...

[don]

The GFS and CMC already show PDS soundings on Monday here.

[Cromagnum]

Nasty hodos this far in advance...

[Cromagnum]

Hmmm

[Cpv17]

Hmmm

That’s what you wanna see.

[Cpv17]

Models have most of the rain east of us over the next week. We’re right on the edge of it so we could still get another .50” to maybe 2” in some spots. Glad I got 1.20” yesterday cuz totals look kinda meh over the next week or two.

[txbear]

Nasty hodos this far in advance...

This. Classic tornadic supercell look. And that CAPE for this time of year, yikes.

Still working on getting a better handle on the actual sounding chart, but is that a bit of a cap I see between 850mb and 700mb?

[DoctorMu]

Nasty hodos this far in advance...

This. Classic tornadic supercell look. And that CAPE for this time of year, yikes.

Still working on getting a better handle on the actual sounding chart, but is that a bit of a cap I see between 850mb and 700mb?

Muy peligroso

[Ptarmigan]

There were tornadoes back in January 2023. I sense deja vu.

[Cpv17]

I have to give CoCo some credit on the 1973 comp he mentioned last week. Looking pretty spot on right now.

[sambucol]

I’m a bit confused about getting some Arctic air down here in SETX. Some say there’s no cold air coming. No sign of the Polar Vortex doing anything out of the ordinary. And then some saying Arctic air is coming. Is there Arctic air or any really cold air coming our way say by the end of this month? Thanks.

[Cpv17]

I’m a bit confused about getting some Arctic air down here in SETX. Some say there’s no cold air coming. No sign of the Polar Vortex doing anything out of the ordinary. And then some saying Arctic air is coming. Is there Arctic air or any really cold air coming our way say by the end of this month? Thanks.

Cold air is coming. How cold is the question.

[sambucol]

Thanks Cpv17