Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 1:41 pm Lol the Euro brings down a piece of the polar vortex lobe all the way down into montana, down right ridiculous cold with -50 to -60 below zero readings showing up, bitter arctic air knocking on the doorstep of texas
The 12z Euro had some isolated areas in MT approaching -70°F.
Harp1
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That bitter cold is miserable without any precip. If it’s gonna be a dry cold, it can stay where it is. 😕😕
Cpv17
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Harp1 wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 1:55 pm That bitter cold is miserable without any precip. If it’s gonna be a dry cold, it can stay where it is. 😕😕
Precip or not, I find it extremely exciting either way.
kyzsl51
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 1:59 pm
Harp1 wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 1:55 pm That bitter cold is miserable without any precip. If it’s gonna be a dry cold, it can stay where it is. 😕😕
Precip or not, I find it extremely exciting either way.
Exactly man! I want winter to be winter! Frozen precip is just icing on the cake
Cpv17
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kyzsl51 wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 5:20 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 1:59 pm
Harp1 wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 1:55 pm That bitter cold is miserable without any precip. If it’s gonna be a dry cold, it can stay where it is. 😕😕
Precip or not, I find it extremely exciting either way.
Exactly man! I want winter to be winter! Frozen precip is just icing on the cake
Yep! Wxman57 needs to get his bags packed and get his jet ready to fly to Sydney!
Stratton20
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Lol the ICON 00z goes absolutely gung ho with the arctic front, sheesh those are some ridiculous temperatures
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Ptarmigan
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If the forecast models held up, it would be on par with 1899 and 1962 freeze.
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snowman65
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I remember that 1899 freeze. That was crazy. Had no wifi for a week!!
brazoriatx
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snowman65 wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:52 am I remember that 1899 freeze. That was crazy. Had no wifi for a week!!
I'm surprised wifi was a thing in 1899 lol
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I would rather live in 1899 than 2024. That’s all I got.
Team #NeverSummer
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snowman65
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Man, that is some serious cold dropping down around in a few weeks
Cpv17
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snowman65 wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:05 am Man, that is some serious cold dropping down around in a few weeks
I’m hoping it has some staying power because if we can lock it in for an extended amount of time then that will greatly increase our chances for a winter storm. Right now I’m not really worried about the cold coming but I’m worried about precipitation.
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snowman65
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:18 am
snowman65 wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:05 am Man, that is some serious cold dropping down around in a few weeks
I’m hoping it has some staying power because if we can lock it in for an extended amount of time then that will greatly increase our chances for a winter storm. Right now I’m not really worried about the cold coming but I’m worried about precipitation.
If systems keep up the current pace of how often they are coming through, the opportunities should be there for something.
Cpv17
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This is interesting…

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/174331348 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

Not real sure how to perceive this…
Harp1
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The iceberg meaning the tip of the polar vortex I believe.
Cpv17
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Harp1 wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:26 pm The iceberg meaning the tip of the polar vortex I believe.
Yeah but it seems like he’s hinting at more cold to come imo.
Harp1
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We’ll see.
Cpv17
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At this point, I’m not even worried about the cold coming. It’s coming, it’s just a matter of how cold does it get? What I’m interested in is what will our weather look like for late January into February.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 POW ponder said even the global guidance, even the ICON, despite being very cold, are still underestimating the strength of this airmass, almost reminds me of february 2021 when global models were a good 5-10 degrees too warm
Stratton20
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CMC puts us in the ICE age lol thats a brutally cold run for se texas
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