January 2024

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ok 6z GFS, I see you.

Very odd run at the end all things considered

Yeah it was basically just model porn for me. I’m curious about this 20-30th timeframe you were so bullish on a few days ago.

I just don’t buy the MJO interference in the extended range that orangeblood referenced on S2K. It doesn’t make sense given the background state and the slow nature push and pull of the wonky one now.

I believe we are entering a pattern much like ‘73 where you may have moderation every 5-7 days for one day, possibly two, then right back into the icebox. Common sense tells you that is how the atmosphere works when you have the current setup we have.

I don’t buy a full retrograde then full on ramp up again. I think it flexes and relaxes a bit, but we don’t lose our blocking.

I’m not a pro, but I’ve seen this long enough to absolutely toss model bias aside and go with my gut.

I certainly could be wrong, and we could have a week long warmup during my time period (albeit not that warm), then a return to cold around 2/1 plus or minus a few days. The little voice in me questions that with the variables in place.

[sambucol]

Very odd run at the end all things considered

Yeah it was basically just model porn for me. I’m curious about this 20-30th timeframe you were so bullish on a few days ago.

I just don’t buy the MJO interference in the extended range that orangeblood referenced on S2K. It doesn’t make sense given the background state and the slow nature push and pull of the wonky one now.

I believe we are entering a pattern much like ‘73 where you may have moderation every 5-7 days for one day, possibly two, then right back into the icebox. Common sense tells you that is how the atmosphere works when you have the current setup we have.

I don’t buy a full retrograde then full on ramp up again. I think it flexes and relaxes a bit, but we don’t lose our blocking.

I’m not a pro, but I’ve seen this long enough to absolutely toss model bias aside and go with my gut.

I certainly could be wrong, and we could have a week long warmup during my time period (albeit not that warm), then a return to cold around 2/1 plus or minus a few days. The little voice in me questions that with the variables in place.

I’m far from being as knowledgeable with everyone’s thinking here. I feel like we are going to get some Arctic air, and possibly extreme as in 2021. But that’s just a feeling I have.

Montgomery, you have always been on target, and I’ve always listened to what you have said. Does your gut tell you we are in for some extreme temps?

[TexasBreeze]

I expect to see srainhoutx sometime soon to chime in on his thoughts about the upcoming pattern. He is a great one too!

[sambucol]

Yes, he is!

[Cpv17]

I expect to see srainhoutx sometime soon to chime in on his thoughts about the upcoming pattern. He is a great one too!

Surprised we haven’t seen him yet. This has serious potential.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yeah it was basically just model porn for me. I’m curious about this 20-30th timeframe you were so bullish on a few days ago.

I just don’t buy the MJO interference in the extended range that orangeblood referenced on S2K. It doesn’t make sense given the background state and the slow nature push and pull of the wonky one now.

I believe we are entering a pattern much like ‘73 where you may have moderation every 5-7 days for one day, possibly two, then right back into the icebox. Common sense tells you that is how the atmosphere works when you have the current setup we have.

I don’t buy a full retrograde then full on ramp up again. I think it flexes and relaxes a bit, but we don’t lose our blocking.

I’m not a pro, but I’ve seen this long enough to absolutely toss model bias aside and go with my gut.

I certainly could be wrong, and we could have a week long warmup during my time period (albeit not that warm), then a return to cold around 2/1 plus or minus a few days. The little voice in me questions that with the variables in place.

I’m far from being as knowledgeable with everyone’s thinking here. I feel like we are going to get some Arctic air, and possibly extreme as in 2021. But that’s just a feeling I have.

Montgomery, you have always been on target, and I’ve always listened to what you have said. Does your gut tell you we are in for some extreme temps?

I mean anytime you have clusters showing extremes, you have to believe it’s on the table.

With that said, I believe the Houston metro area will bottom out in hard freeze territory (low 20s) and possibly some northern areas in the mid teens.

My far western locale in the viewing area could see mid-upper teens.

I don’t expect a 2021, not with this first round of Arctic air. You guys have to remember that was a twice, maybe three times in a lifetime type plunge and storm. It was also preceded by cold before the bottom dropped out.

[don]

Arctic air is coming. How cold? And will we have any precip to go with it? are the questions.

[Stratton20]

GFS / GEFS and some of the other ensemble guidance do show the potential for precipitation so it definitely is worth watching, what blows my mind is the 12z ICON which brings a piece of the tropospheric polar vortex down into central canada, near the US border, unbelievably brutal wind chill values🥶🥶🥶

[Cpv17]

Apps aren’t even showing a freeze for me yet lol crazy!

[Cromagnum]

In more immediate news, how is the storm situation for Monday currently looking?

[Stratton20]

The 18z GFS gets oh so very close to showing wintry precip in our neck of the woods as a coastal low begins to crank up, right as the arctic air begins to meet up, coastal low just pushes out before we can get cold enough, but its so close

[don]

In more immediate news, how is the storm situation for Monday currently looking?

It's conditional based on if the cap can break and the amount of instability available when the front moves in. We'll know more tonight/tomorrow as we get into better range of more mesoscale models. Though FWIW the 3K NAM does show a squall line developing along the I-59 corridor. With thunderstorm clusters also developing ahead of the line. It also shows some impressive shear, moderate CAPE, and curved hodographs.(soundings is from downtown)

[Cromagnum]

Those latest hodographs are nuts. I've seen some that curve quite a bit but not do full 360 loops like those. If that line is coming through at 23z (5PM), that's plenty of daytime to build up instability.

[brazoriatx]

The 18z GFS gets oh so very close to showing wintry precip in our neck of the woods as a coastal low begins to crank up, right as the arctic air begins to meet up, coastal low just pushes out before we can get cold enough, but its so close

Man it's always like that..either it's cold enough but no precip or we have the precip but it's not cold enough in time before it leaves..such a fine needle to thread down here..the stars have to line up perfectly

[sambucol]

The 18z GFS gets oh so very close to showing wintry precip in our neck of the woods as a coastal low begins to crank up, right as the arctic air begins to meet up, coastal low just pushes out before we can get cold enough, but its so close

If there’s a winter precip event in most of the state, I hope ERCOT is ready because that could cause rolling blackouts. Be prepared.

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS gets oh so very close to showing wintry precip in our neck of the woods as a coastal low begins to crank up, right as the arctic air begins to meet up, coastal low just pushes out before we can get cold enough, but its so close

Man it's always like that..either it's cold enough but no precip or we have the precip but it's not cold enough in time before it leaves..such a fine needle to thread down here..the stars have to line up perfectly

Long ways to go still!

[oleander]

KPRC already hyping up the Hurricane forecast. A bit excessive with the title.

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2 ... r-houston/

I can’t tell you the last time I watched the news or read a major outlets website. They are a clown circus of poor journalism, dramatic misleading headlines and opinion laced dichotomies.

Stop feeding the idiocy that is mass media and think. Don’t get me started on social media. I refuse to support Facebook, Twitter, Instagram or anything of the sorts.

Like I said with the 1899 reference earlier, I was meant for a much earlier time. Today is straight running zombie land and a hysteria whipped mass led by the propaganda machines.

I've always liked your posts and now I know more why. FYI, we signed the contract to build our house in Colorado County. Estimated Oct.-Nov. completion of build. Election time. finally getting out of Houston. Can't wait! https://www.wildwingpreservetx.com/

[Pas_Bon]

Are there still PDS soundings/chatter for Monday?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

KPRC already hyping up the Hurricane forecast. A bit excessive with the title.

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2 ... r-houston/

I can’t tell you the last time I watched the news or read a major outlets website. They are a clown circus of poor journalism, dramatic misleading headlines and opinion laced dichotomies.

Stop feeding the idiocy that is mass media and think. Don’t get me started on social media. I refuse to support Facebook, Twitter, Instagram or anything of the sorts.

Like I said with the 1899 reference earlier, I was meant for a much earlier time. Today is straight running zombie land and a hysteria whipped mass led by the propaganda machines.

I've always liked your posts and now I know more why. FYI, we signed the contract to build our house in Colorado County. Estimated Oct.-Nov. completion of build. Election time. finally getting out of Houston. Can't wait! https://www.wildwingpreservetx.com/

Congrats and welcome to CoCo! You are between CPV17 and myself.

[Cromagnum]

Are there still PDS soundings/chatter for Monday?

Last one posted just said TOR which is bad enough. High resolution model data should be coming soon.