I just don’t buy the MJO interference in the extended range that orangeblood referenced on S2K. It doesn’t make sense given the background state and the slow nature push and pull of the wonky one now.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 12:07 pmYeah it was basically just model porn for me. I’m curious about this 20-30th timeframe you were so bullish on a few days ago.
I believe we are entering a pattern much like ‘73 where you may have moderation every 5-7 days for one day, possibly two, then right back into the icebox. Common sense tells you that is how the atmosphere works when you have the current setup we have.
I don’t buy a full retrograde then full on ramp up again. I think it flexes and relaxes a bit, but we don’t lose our blocking.
I’m not a pro, but I’ve seen this long enough to absolutely toss model bias aside and go with my gut.
I certainly could be wrong, and we could have a week long warmup during my time period (albeit not that warm), then a return to cold around 2/1 plus or minus a few days. The little voice in me questions that with the variables in place.