January 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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0Z GFS is even more "aggressive" now with light freezing rain and sleet all the way to the coast. Shows pretty much an all day event on Monday. Keep in mind though its light precip for now at least.

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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 6:26 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:44 pm Too many NG power stations were off-line in 2021 due to repairs and prepping for the following summer. The Texas grid did or could not connect power coming from wind and solar from West Texas to the eastern part of the state. My wife's dad worked for Exxon for over 35 years. Her brother worked in O&G exploration for 25+ years. My neighbor was an O&G geologist.

Because we haven't had to ballz to upgrade and expand nuclear capabilities and never developed a viable biofuel industry, the transition will have to be fusion. With the superconductor magnets, we have the potential to build safe power plants in time (and generate helium which is running short in supply. However, without a Man on the Moon mission to upgrade our energy, it's going to be a 20-35 year transition to fusion from O&G. Solar and wind contributions will increase, but 2024 will be the first year they contribute more to the power grid than coal!

Ammonia isn't a bad option for powering shipping vessels. However, Ammonia does have the scale for power plants to support the grid.

I'm still looking at a Hybrid (probably CR-V as our next vehicle purchase. I drive 'em 'til they drop: 2009, 2012 Hondas. When the EV grid (and power plant grids) are ready, we'll transition our transportation.

There just isn't an overnight solution.
I agree with most of that. I see and talk to individuals you all would know, in my line of work, and they are dumbfounded society has bought off on EV having a viable long term future, but they’ll toss money into the fire because they are told to by their constituents and shareholders. They know electrification of certain industries will end in a massive money suck and failure.
The best automobile engine/vehicle will be about 25% efficient.

While an EV is 70% efficient, the NG power plant that is the source of electricity is about 40% efficient. That means an EV power by electricity in Texas really isn't much more efficient than a gasoline powered vehicle. There are fewer CO2 emissions, fewer moving parts, and Tesla engineers have made a lot of progress. It's just a part of a long-term solution.
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DoctorMu
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Canadian is keeping it real. College Station would be 3 days in the ice box.



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Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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don
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(Downtown Monday afternoon.)

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MontgomeryCoWx
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:54 pm Canadian is keeping it real. College Station would be 3 days in the ice box.



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I need more bourbon for this.
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Stratton20
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Just took a look at the wind chill maps on the GFS and CMC and boy they are absolutely down right nasty🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶☠️☠️

Also it appears models are starting to hang back the TPV a bit more, so any warm up after this major cold snap might jot even happen, GFS has another surge of arctic air, absolutely relentless
SKIDOG52
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Prepare!
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:06 pm Just took a look at the wind chill maps on the GFS and CMC and boy they are absolutely down right nasty🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶☠️☠️

Also it appears models are starting to hang back the TPV a bit more, so any warm up after this major cold snap might jot even happen, GFS has another surge of arctic air, absolutely relentless
In-freaking-sane!!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Guys, I can’t recall a 15-1 Kuchera ratio south of I10…. Ever in my lifetime.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Nat Gas going bonkers.
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Harp1
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:16 pm Guys, I can’t recall a 15-1 Kuchera ratio south of I10…. Ever in my lifetime.
What is that?
Stratton20
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GFS still cold through hour 306, unbelievable
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Snow-Liquid ratio
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Cpv17
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Hailing here for the second time tonight.
Stratton20
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GFS keeps us very cold for at least 10 days! Oh brother The mesocale short range models are going to be extremely interesting once we get closer to this event
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:33 pm GFS keeps us very cold for at least 10 days! Oh brother The mesocale short range models are going to be extremely interesting once we get closer to this event
Yeah and for the GFS to show that is even crazier.
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sambucol
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:33 pm GFS keeps us very cold for at least 10 days! Oh brother The mesocale short range models are going to be extremely interesting once we get closer to this event
What are the temps for the 10 days in SETX? Thank you.
Stratton20
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Sambucol the first really powerful arctic blast, temps will likely be stuck in the low-mid 20’s with lows in the teens for a few days, then a “ slow warm up” highs in the mid to upper 30’s are the highest “ high” over the next 10 days according to the GFS
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 09, 2024 12:00 am Sambucol the first really powerful arctic blast, temps will likely be stuck in the low-mid 20’s with lows in the teens for a few days, then a “ slow warm up” highs in the mid to upper 30’s are the highest “ high” over the next 10 days according to the GFS
And Cosgrove seems pretty adamant about a cold February.
Stratton20
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Major winter storm onthe 00z euro
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