January 2024

[JDsGN]

Quite the opposite lol, with arctic airmasses, the models are almost always too warm, globals were 5-10 degrees too warm with the February 2021 outbreak, id bank on a couple days below freezing in in se texas

This far out, we don't know the true depth of the snowpack to the north prior to the fronts arrival. There are far too many variables to look at the models and declare Travis or ABC13 wrong. 2021 was an outlier. Considering we didn't even touch freezing for all of 2023 I tend to trust Travis and a couple other local meteorologist over model watching 5-7 days out and getting hyped on every run. In 2-3 days it will probably lose the precip or raise the temps and then drop them again. Cold temps are happening and we should prepare to protect our houses and pets etc... but its far to early to know how cold its really going to be imo.

[JDsGN]

To be fair to Travis and ABC13, this isn't the "Polar Vortex" and that's what he was mostly responding to last week. As far as glancing blow, we are still a week out and if i had to wager money... We live in Houston and its always a safer bet on it being warmer than models show a week out. I hope we get some good cold weather and some form of wintry precipitation but Id bet on it not being 5 days of below freezing temps for SE Texas like some models are showing.

Cold, dense air almost always overperforms in College Station.

"Overperforms" Compared to what? The GFS, Euro? Which model run? 5 days out? 1 day?

[Harp1]

Euro is trending colder and slower with the system, has some light snow in the houston metro, just need that system to dig a bit more and the. we are in business

Does it make it to Louisiana?

[Stratton20]

we arent getting a glancing blow, its coming straight down into the plains and into texas, Cosgrove has mentioned that the ICON and CMC have the best handle on how this is likely going to play out , ABC13 has highs in the upper 40’s which is far too conservative , the blocking pattern is pretty much ensuring that arctic air has a one way ticket down here, that glancing blow talk is very unlikely

[snowman65]

Anyone see POWs latest??? yowzers....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

To be fair to Travis and ABC13, this isn't the "Polar Vortex" and that's what he was mostly responding to last week. As far as glancing blow, we are still a week out and if i had to wager money... We live in Houston and its always a safer bet on it being warmer than models show a week out. I hope we get some good cold weather and some form of wintry precipitation but Id bet on it not being 5 days of below freezing temps for SE Texas like some models are showing.

I think you got this one backwards buddy. Precip? Yeah I’d agree, but the models are almost ALWAYS too warm with these air masses.

[JDsGN]

we arent getting a glancing blow, its coming straight down into the plains and into texas, Cosgrove has mentioned that the ICON and CMC have the best handle on how this is likely going to play out , ABC13 has highs in the upper 40’s which is far too conservative , the blocking pattern is pretty much ensuring that arctic air has a one way ticket down here, that glancing blow talk is very unlikely

I do agree that its going to be colder than upper 40s and im sure they will refine the forcast as things get closer. KPRC is showing mid to upper 30s as highs and low 20s for lows. This would be teens for northern suburbs and possibly below freezing for highs up north but i just am not quite buying models showing 4* or low teens and staying in the 20s for days on end and i understand why local mets have not jumped onboard with a 2021 repeat yet.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Quite the opposite lol, with arctic airmasses, the models are almost always too warm, globals were 5-10 degrees too warm with the February 2021 outbreak, id bank on a couple days below freezing in in se texas

This far out, we don't know the true depth of the snowpack to the north prior to the fronts arrival. There are far too many variables to look at the models and declare Travis or ABC13 wrong. 2021 was an outlier. Considering we didn't even touch freezing for all of 2023 I tend to trust Travis and a couple other local meteorologist over model watching 5-7 days out and getting hyped on every run. In 2-3 days it will probably lose the precip or raise the temps and then drop them again. Cold temps are happening and we should prepare to protect our houses and pets etc... but its far to early to know how cold its really going to be imo.

Where I will agree with you this far out, is the duration. With that said, there was a reason I started beating the 1973 talk two weeks ago. You could see the NA block retrograding and expanding and timing was perfect to link up with EPO tanking.

Right now, I see no reason to believe in a progressive pattern for the next 3-4 weeks. Last two systems started to prove that.

[jasons2k]

Got a whopping 0.30” yesterday….

[JDsGN]

Got a whopping 0.30” yesterday….

Those storms were just moving too quick over my area to drop much. We got .36 from the streamers and front and then another .14 in the evening when the post front rain moved in. Heard some thunder and got a bit of what i think was graupel but didn't do much other than leave our cars filthy.

[jasons2k]

I’m convinced it’s getting very cold 🥶 next week but I’m not convinced yet it’s going to stick around.

I wouldn’t take anything to the bank beyond about 5-days. Tread cautiously.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m convinced it’s getting very cold 🥶 next week but I’m not convinced yet it’s going to stick around.

I wouldn’t take anything to the bank beyond about 5-days. Tread cautiously.

I am. There is no warm up in sight and by warm up I mean normal temps.

This pattern is mean. Be prepared for 30s and 40s for highs for quite a long stretch with sprinkled 20s in there.

[christinac2016]

The tv Mets finally mentioned the cold starting Tuesday. I assume it was channel 2 since channel 11 didn’t get renewed with AT&T.

Is that a more accelerated track? I thought it was aiming for end of the month.

[jasons2k]

My dew point is already down to 26. Once the winds die down, the temp is gonna drop like a rock.

[Cpv17]

The tv Mets finally mentioned the cold starting Tuesday. I assume it was channel 2 since channel 11 didn’t get renewed with AT&T.

Is that a more accelerated track? I thought it was aiming for end of the month.

The cold will be here by this Friday and will really be here by later Sunday and into Monday. And it will stay cold for quite a while.

[jasons2k]

I’m convinced it’s getting very cold 🥶 next week but I’m not convinced yet it’s going to stick around.

I wouldn’t take anything to the bank beyond about 5-days. Tread cautiously.

I am. There is no warm up in sight and by warm up I mean normal temps.

This pattern is mean. Be prepared for 30s and 40s for highs for quite a long stretch with sprinkled 20s in there.

That may indeed come to fruition. There’s no denying what the ensembles are picking-up on. At the same time, my 10-day has me back to 59-60 next Thursday. So who really knows? I’ve been burned myself too many times in the past, convincing myself that as the models consistently trended in one direction that there was no turning back…until one day you wake up and everything flips…and WxMan57 says “I told you not to trust the models beyond 5 days…”

Man, it’s happened so many times before, I just don’t take anything for granted. That said, from a practical standpoint, I’m most definitely preparing for the worst.

[christinac2016]

She’s put on her weather cap. Mom says there’ll be no precip and the cold won’t last long.

[Cpv17]

She’s put on her weather cap. Mom says there’ll be no precip and the cold won’t last long.

My mom is the same way and is always in complete denial about the cold.

[vci_guy2003]

Ch 13 says arctic outbreak then has highs in the 40s. LMAO

[DoctorMu]

To be fair to Travis and ABC13, this isn't the "Polar Vortex" and that's what he was mostly responding to last week. As far as glancing blow, we are still a week out and if i had to wager money... We live in Houston and its always a safer bet on it being warmer than models show a week out. I hope we get some good cold weather and some form of wintry precipitation but Id bet on it not being 5 days of below freezing temps for SE Texas like some models are showing.

Cold, dense air almost always overperforms in College Station.

"Overperforms" Compared to what? The GFS, Euro? Which model run? 5 days out? 1 day?

Yes.