January 2024

[don]

Major differences between the NAM and GFS with the frontal passage. The NAM has the freeze line almost to the I-59 corridor by Sunday evening.While at the same time the GFS has temps in the 50's and 60's.This is because the GFS stalls the front, we've seen the GFS do this time and time again with shallow arctic air. The NAM usually will be far more accurate with these setups.

(If the NAM is correct by the time precip starts overnight Sunday-Monday most of us will already be around or below freezing)

[user:null]

Major differences between the NAM and GFS with the frontal passage. The NAM has the freeze line almost to the I-59 corridor by Sunday evening.While at the same time the GFS has temps in the 50's and 60's.This is because the GFS stalls the front, we've seen the GFS do this time and time again with shallow arctic air. The NAM usually will be far more accurate with these setups.

(If the NAM is correct by the time precip starts overnight Sunday-Monday most of us will already be around or below freezing)

Regardless of shallow-cold, frozen precip outcomes would depend on which model is correct regarding upper-air patterns.

I still don't know why the EURO would have any issues (if any) regarding "shallow cold." I mentioned before, but the EURO resolution at 9km is much better than ICON, and other globals, and would only be bested by specific mesocales like 3km NAM nest and HRRR.

Also, notice how NAM (so far as we see 12z today) is a chillier overall Sunday with no real warmup ... yet it's also not the coldest, with temps in the 20s well into North Texas, teens confined to mostly to Oklahoma, and single digits even up Kansas (as of 84hrs out). Basically, temp spread is more uniform.

In contrast, ICON has a much stronger Sunday warmup (I see temps near 70s in many parts of the area) ... but then temps out that same 84hrs within the cold pool are deeper into the teens in North Texas, and single-digits/subzero in Oklahoma. Very sharp temp gradients.

Matter of fact, even the GFS 12z has slightly sharper gradients compared to the 12km NAM so far.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Mmmmmhmmmm

Traders agree with me too.

This isn’t a December ‘22

[don]

Major differences between the NAM and GFS with the frontal passage. The NAM has the freeze line almost to the I-59 corridor by Sunday evening.While at the same time the GFS has temps in the 50's and 60's.This is because the GFS stalls the front, we've seen the GFS do this time and time again with shallow arctic air. The NAM usually will be far more accurate with these setups.

(If the NAM is correct by the time precip starts overnight Sunday-Monday most of us will already be around or below freezing)

Regardless of shallow-cold, frozen precip outcomes would depend on which model is correct regarding upper-air patterns.

I still don't know why the EURO would have any issues (if any) regarding "shallow cold." I mentioned before, but the EURO resolution at 9km is much better than ICON, and other globals, and would only be bested by specific mesocales like 3km NAM nest and HRRR.

Also, notice how NAM (so far as we see 12z today) is a chillier overall Sunday with no real warmup ... yet it's also not the coldest, with temps in the 20s well into North Texas, and teens confined to mostly to Oklahoma (as of 84hrs out).

In contrast, ICON has a much stronger Sunday warmup (I see temps near 70s in many parts of the area) ... but then temps out that same 84hrs within the cold pool are deeper into the teens in North Texas, and single-digits/subzero in Oklahoma.

Resolution is not the only thing that matters. Algorithms/the way models are "tuned" and data ingested into the models are more important.That's why we have so many models in the first place, they all have their strengths and weaknesses. We "long timers" have seen this scenario time and time again. Even the NWS mentioned this morning the NAM does a better job with shallow air.

[Cpv17]

Mmmmmhmmmm

Traders agree with me too.

This isn’t a December ‘22

Spill the beans man!

[tireman4]

Goodness....

[Harp1]

The latest GFS frozen precip totals take it all the way to the Louisiana gulf coast. There is still hope for me over here.

[Cpv17]

Goodness....

That’s nutsos! Never seen anything like that before on any model.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Mmmmmhmmmm

Traders agree with me too.

This isn’t a December ‘22

Spill the beans man!

Usually when we approach (within 3 days) of a quick Arctic shot, Nat gas starts moving back down as the warm up is priced in.

That is not happening on the futures market. Winter Natty is so much fun to follow and trade. You got to have a gut of steel though.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

February 24 futures are up 4% today.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Major differences between the NAM and GFS with the frontal passage. The NAM has the freeze line almost to the I-59 corridor by Sunday evening.While at the same time the GFS has temps in the 50's and 60's.This is because the GFS stalls the front, we've seen the GFS do this time and time again with shallow arctic air. The NAM usually will be far more accurate with these setups.

(If the NAM is correct by the time precip starts overnight Sunday-Monday most of us will already be around or below freezing)

Regardless of shallow-cold, frozen precip outcomes would depend on which model is correct regarding upper-air patterns.

I still don't know why the EURO would have any issues (if any) regarding "shallow cold." I mentioned before, but the EURO resolution at 9km is much better than ICON, and other globals, and would only be bested by specific mesocales like 3km NAM nest and HRRR.

Also, notice how NAM (so far as we see 12z today) is a chillier overall Sunday with no real warmup ... yet it's also not the coldest, with temps in the 20s well into North Texas, and teens confined to mostly to Oklahoma (as of 84hrs out).

In contrast, ICON has a much stronger Sunday warmup (I see temps near 70s in many parts of the area) ... but then temps out that same 84hrs within the cold pool are deeper into the teens in North Texas, and single-digits/subzero in Oklahoma.

Resolution is not the only thing that matters. Algorithms/the way models are "tuned" and data ingested into the models are more important.That's why we have so many models in the first place, they all have their strengths and weaknesses. We "long timers" have seen this scenario time and time again. Even the NWS mentioned this morning the NAM does a better job with shallow air.

Correct. And it’s why I refuse to use the word “upgrade” when model inputs are changed. It’s just a change and it can be a bad one if the “upgrade” is handled poorly.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Nat Gas now up 5%

[Scott747]

Natty futures have been on the rise for the last week or so when the models were hinting a potential outbreak. Only put part of the kids inheritance on some contracts.

Miss the old days when there weren't so many hedge funds and banks that didn't employ traders that specifically followed longer term model trends. Way too many weather nerds now. lol.

[walsean1]

How is it possible for the Freeze line not to be in SE Texas by Sunday Evening? ABC13 has a high of 46 this day. With the north wind that can’t be possible. If they are going by the GFS model, it is too warm

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Natty futures have been on the rise for the last week or so when the models were hinting a potential outbreak. Only put part of the kids inheritance on some contracts.

Miss the old days when there weren't so many hedge funds and banks that didn't employ traders that specifically followed longer term model trends. Way too many weather nerds now. lol.

Too funny. I know lots of Aggie, Sooner, Bulldog and Nittany Lion Mets working for Wall Street now. It’s crazy the shift that has happened since I graduated college in 2004.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

How is it possible for the Freeze line not to be in SE Texas by Sunday Evening? ABC13 has a high of 46 this day. With the north wind that can’t be possible. If they are going by the GFS model, it is too warm

High is in the morning.

[Cromagnum]

Goodness....

Herzog: "We aren't getting a polar vortex"

Mother Nature:

[sambucol]

Mmmmmhmmmm

Traders agree with me too.

This isn’t a December ‘22

Is this leaning more toward 2021?

[Stratton20]

no

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Mmmmmhmmmm

Traders agree with me too.

This isn’t a December ‘22

Is this leaning more toward 2021?

It’s different from 2021, no doubt. This reminds me a bit more of the mid 70s and mid 80s.

Could we bottom out bad? Yeah, but that would have to be from over performing precip. It’s not going to happen from this airmass. I do see widespread teens materializing but not widespread single digits. Late next week looks more exciting quite frankly.