January 2024

[tireman4]

Natty futures have been on the rise for the last week or so when the models were hinting a potential outbreak. Only put part of the kids inheritance on some contracts.

Miss the old days when there weren't so many hedge funds and banks that didn't employ traders that specifically followed longer term model trends. Way too many weather nerds now. lol.

Yer back!!!

[walsean1]

Mmmmmhmmmm

Traders agree with me too.

This isn’t a December ‘22

Is this leaning more toward 2021?

It’s different from 2021, no doubt. This reminds me a bit more of the mid 70s and mid 80s.

Could we bottom out bad? Yeah, but that would have to be from over performing precip. It’s not going to happen from this airmass. I do see widespread teens materializing but not widespread single digits. Late next week looks more exciting quite frankly.

They have SE Texas in the 60s for high by Thursday and Friday so can you explain what the model are sending out?

[Stratton20]

The models, especially the GFS show another arctic front on the heels of this one with another system potentially in play,, those 60’s are way too warm, I dont foresee us getting warmer than the low 40’s even beyond this arctic snap

[jasons2k]

The models, especially the GFS show another arctic front on the heels of this one with another system potentially in play,, those 60’s are way too warm, I dont foresee us getting warmer than the low 40’s even beyond this arctic snap

I think you’re setting yourself up to get burned.

Looks like a break between air masses.

[walsean1]

GFS is close to an agreement.



KHOU has it right IMO.

GFS has sleet/snow from a coastal low on Friday the 19th.

Can you explain? I haven’t heard anyone in Media, social media mention any sort of system around this timeline and the cold air was supposed to retreat by then. They have us in the 60s Thursday

[tireman4]

The models, especially the GFS show another arctic front on the heels of this one with another system potentially in play,, those 60’s are way too warm, I dont foresee us getting warmer than the low 40’s even beyond this arctic snap

I think you’re setting yourself up to get burned.

Looks like a break between air masses.

I would agree with Jason. Onshore/SE winds can warm things up from the Gulf rather quickly ( right now, for example. LOL)

[Stratton20]

Maybe I will, but dont expect that warm up to last long lol, keep that arctic air coming down here!

[jasons2k]

The models, especially the GFS show another arctic front on the heels of this one with another system potentially in play,, those 60’s are way too warm, I dont foresee us getting warmer than the low 40’s even beyond this arctic snap

I think you’re setting yourself up to get burned.

Looks like a break between air masses.

I would agree with Jason. Onshore/SE winds can warm things up from the Gulf rather quickly ( right now, for example. LOL)

Yeah just a couple of days ago, putting up a high of 77 here today would’ve sounded absolutely crazy to some of you.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The models, especially the GFS show another arctic front on the heels of this one with another system potentially in play,, those 60’s are way too warm, I dont foresee us getting warmer than the low 40’s even beyond this arctic snap

I think you’re setting yourself up to get burned.

Looks like a break between air masses.

There might be a 36 hour break but I don’t think we see average temps (low 60s).

This is all depending on there not being sleet or ice on the ground from Mondays system. If that overperforms, you can toss out much of a moderation.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I think you’re setting yourself up to get burned.

Looks like a break between air masses.

I would agree with Jason. Onshore/SE winds can warm things up from the Gulf rather quickly ( right now, for example. LOL)

Yeah just a couple of days ago, putting up a high of 77 here today would’ve sounded absolutely crazy to some of you.

This is classic step down with air subsiding warming us up in front of a cold front. Much more prevalent in La Nina’s but this Nino has been anything but normal.

[tireman4]

I would agree with Jason. Onshore/SE winds can warm things up from the Gulf rather quickly ( right now, for example. LOL)

Yeah just a couple of days ago, putting up a high of 77 here today would’ve sounded absolutely crazy to some of you.

This is classic step down with air subsiding warming us up in front of a cold front. Much more prevalent in La Nina’s but this Nino has been anything but normal.

You can say that again. LOL

[sambucol]

Email from Jeff Lindner

Significant cold air intrusion will arrive this weekend…with very cold temperatures for early next week.

Cold weather preparations should be underway and complete by Saturday.

Overnight we came within the time range of the NAM guidance and it is showing a much faster frontal passage than any of the global guidance. While not prefect, the NAM usually handles these cold dense air masses better than the larger grid global guidance. The NAM has the front to the northern edge of SE TX by midnight Saturday and sweeps the boundary through the region and off the coast Sunday morning about 12-18 hours faster than previous forecasts. History with these arctic fronts suggests the NAM is likely handling this timing better and we should be prepared for the front to arrive as early as Sunday morning…there will be more confidence in the frontal timing in the next 24 hours as we begin to fall into the range of the higher resolution guidance.

Post frontal strong cold air advection will drive temperatures downward quickly and again following the NAM guidance has much of the area falling into and through the 30’s during the day on Sunday and then quickly on below freezing Sunday late afternoon/early evening…this could be a bit slow and some of the north and western areas could fall to and below freezing during the day on Sunday.

Cold arctic air mass will be entrenched by Sunday evening with a widespread freeze almost certain for much of the area Sunday night/Monday AM and a hard freeze (24F or lower for 2hrs) for areas along and north of I-10. Many locations look to endure many hours below freezing and there are questions on Monday for how long and how much portions of the area even get above freezing.

Coldest night looks to be Monday night/Tuesday AM with a widespread hard freeze across much of the area (maybe minus the coast). Lows into the upper 10’s down toward the US 59 corridor and even mid 20’s to the coast.

Strong northerly winds post front will drive cold wind chills across the area with values in the 10’s and maybe lower.

This cold air outbreak is looking similar in intensity and duration to the December 2022 event.

As for any precipitation…there continues to be an outside chance of some light precipitation in the Sunday night/Monday morning time period. Guidance continues to have hints of this, but there is not much confidence. Thinking if anything were to occur it would be light and favor areas north of I-10. Hopefully the higher resolution guidance will add some confidence to this aspect over the next 1-2 days.

Preparations:

Cold weather preparations for infrastructure (exposed pipes and sprinkler systems), pets/livestock, plants, and people should be underway. Proper winterization efforts will help to mitigate damages from the cold. Complete preparations by Saturday evening.

[user:null]

Resolution is not the only thing that matters. Algorithms/the way models are "tuned" and data ingested into the models are more important.That's why we have so many models in the first place, they all have their strengths and weaknesses. We "long timers" have seen this scenario time and time again. Even the NWS mentioned this morning the NAM does a better job with shallow air.

Fair.

Although, it should be noted that in Feb 21' (as I posted earlier), even globals were already locked in regarding the severity of the freezes (just about) as far as 1 week out. They already recognized even the "cooldown overrunning" prior to the Valentine's Day storm. Basically, they never "ran too warm" in those cases like many often repeat on these boards.

This latest 12z EURO actually isn't all that different for Sunday from the 12km NAM 12z — both depict overall colder days in the 30s that have a morning freeze-line northwest fringes of Metro Houston. It's just that EURO warms afternoon somewhat into mid-upper 30s across more of Eastern Texas, unlike NAM12k that "stays more put" in lower 30s.

On the flipside, the late Jan-early Feb 23' icing event in Central/North Texas was a situation where much of the globals definitely did miss. All quite bad sans CMC and ICON (underrated model, actually).

[christinac2016]

Mmmmmhmmmm

Traders agree with me too.

This isn’t a December ‘22

Is it a February 2021?

[christinac2016]

Could it a February 2021 type?

[christinac2016]

Mmmmmhmmmm

Traders agree with me too.

This isn’t a December ‘22

Is this leaning more toward 2021?

I thought the same thing.

[brazoriatx]

Man ita confusing..nws says 20% of precipitation..tv guys say anywhere from 40 to 60% and wxman57 says zero .....ugh

[Cpv17]

Man ita confusing..nws says 20% of precipitation..tv guys say anywhere from 40 to 60% and wxman57 says zero .....ugh

57 isn’t gonna say there’s a chance till it’s clear and obvious, especially when it comes to winter weather.

[christinac2016]

Disregard my recent posts. I thought they weren’t posting.

[user:null]

How is it possible for the Freeze line not to be in SE Texas by Sunday Evening? ABC13 has a high of 46 this day. With the north wind that can’t be possible. If they are going by the GFS model, it is too warm

High is in the morning.

Ironically, while both the CMC and ICON have been the two coldest models (so far) for this upcoming cold spell, they actually feature a much stronger Sunday warmup into 60s/70s.

Meanwhile, the GFS and especially the EURO are actually much closer to the colder Sunday forecast depicted by the NAM12km.