January 2024
Well there goes the flood watches right on cue lol
Radar is pretty farcto our north for now. I personally don't need anymore at my house as we are waterlogged.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 2:40 pm looks like the mesoscale models favor the coastal communities for the next couple batches of heavy rain
Wait till the beginning of February lolCromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 4:41 pmRadar is pretty farcto our north for now. I personally don't need anymore at my house as we are waterlogged.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 2:40 pm looks like the mesoscale models favor the coastal communities for the next couple batches of heavy rain
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cromagnum same, i could use a week or two of dry weather now, its like a miniature pool in my backyard lol
That line of storms just south of us is meandering north. Could be a long night.
https://youtu.be/m4tJSn0QtME?si=eC1UnSqmYgvFuldg
https://youtu.be/m4tJSn0QtME?si=eC1UnSqmYgvFuldg
Picked up another .27” here today bringing my total to 3.49”.
I received .61” today bringing my total to 3.46” so far.
Tonight/early tomorrow could get interesting.
Gotta love Texas. Spend 40 hours below freezing and then the swamp (albeit tolerable swamp lol) followed by flooding. All within a week!
Tonight/early tomorrow could get interesting.
Gotta love Texas. Spend 40 hours below freezing and then the swamp (albeit tolerable swamp lol) followed by flooding. All within a week!
Looking interesting SW
Long night ahead.
Both a flooding and isolated severe risk according to the latest WPC and SPC mesoscale discussions for the area overnight. At the moment it seems like the line of action generally remains the same as it has been most of the afternoon and evening, just extending now further SW. Let’s see what happens as it propagates this direction.
So far picked up 1.58” today with a storm total of 3.53” and counting…time to crash
MOAR. OMG
3.65 inches and counting.
Per previous discussions, the formerly desiccated winter foliage allows for floods. There's a flash flood warning here.
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX12688567672C.FlashFloodWarning.12688567CE4CTX.HGXFFWHGX.f0170136b9dfc017c26131bc7dbf99f1 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 22:51 CST on 01-23-2024
Effective: 22:51 CST on 01-23-2024
Expires: 01:15 CST on 01-24-2024
Event: Flash Flood Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
Southern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Washington County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 115 AM CST.
* At 1051 PM CST, emergency management and media reported flooding
due to heavy rainfall. Numerous impassable roads are being
reported in Navasota, including Spur 515 at Cullen, Spur 515 at
South LaSalle, Foster at Washington, Millican at North LaSalle,
Meadow Lakes at Mockingbird, and Victoria Ave at the Cedar Creek
Bridge. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area.
Flash flooding is already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.
SOURCE...Emergency management reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Navasota, Washington, Anderson, Roans Prairie and Richards.
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
Instructions: Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Target Area:
Brazos
Grimes
Waller
Washington
Per previous discussions, the formerly desiccated winter foliage allows for floods. There's a flash flood warning here.
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX12688567672C.FlashFloodWarning.12688567CE4CTX.HGXFFWHGX.f0170136b9dfc017c26131bc7dbf99f1 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 22:51 CST on 01-23-2024
Effective: 22:51 CST on 01-23-2024
Expires: 01:15 CST on 01-24-2024
Event: Flash Flood Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
Southern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Washington County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 115 AM CST.
* At 1051 PM CST, emergency management and media reported flooding
due to heavy rainfall. Numerous impassable roads are being
reported in Navasota, including Spur 515 at Cullen, Spur 515 at
South LaSalle, Foster at Washington, Millican at North LaSalle,
Meadow Lakes at Mockingbird, and Victoria Ave at the Cedar Creek
Bridge. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area.
Flash flooding is already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.
SOURCE...Emergency management reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Navasota, Washington, Anderson, Roans Prairie and Richards.
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
Instructions: Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Target Area:
Brazos
Grimes
Waller
Washington
Hello night owls, I see there's a slight tornado risk, along with wind and hail, for much of the Houston area overnight and into the morning. That severe warned cell SW of San Antonio has continued strong for the last couple of hours.
Looks like some of the mean stuff is rolling in now down here. Pretty loud thunder, and some rotation on radar.
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Another 4 here overnight.
Creeks are out into the road and tanks are full.
Flash Flood Warning until 9 am
Creeks are out into the road and tanks are full.
Flash Flood Warning until 9 am
Team #NeverSummer
Flood Warning in effect until 1:45 pm replaces Flash Flood Warning. Grimes, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity and Walker.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 241320
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
720 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
...New HYDROLOGY...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
Widespread showers and storms continue to pose a heavy rain threat
to the area, with portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
having already received 3-6 inches of rain (with some locally
higher totals) since yesterday morning. This has prompted the
issuance of multiple flash flood warnings, and local emergency
managers have reported widespread impacts to roadways as well as
some high water rescues. Given the continued threat, we have
extended the previously issued Flood Watch for all of SE Texas
through Noon CST today.
As of 2 AM CST, the main axis of rainfall has started to shift to
the south, producing intermittent rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr in
the strongest storms. As it currently stands, another training
situation has yet to materialize and rainfall totals around the
I-10 corridor sit in the 1-2 in range at most with even lower
totals southward. However, mesoanalysis and high-resolution
guidance point to the potential for heavy rain along the I-10
corridor and southward towards the coast remaining elevated well
into the morning. In addition to the midlevel shortwave driving
convection, the heavy rainfall potential will be further aided by
high moisture availability (1.5+ PW), strong 925-850mb moisture
transport, and the area`s presence within the right entrance
region of a strengthening ~110kt jet streak aloft.
Latest high resolution model runs show the current activity
shifting further southward towards the coast over the next few
hours, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms moving through the
area through the early afternoon. This looks to result in roughly
2-4 in of additional rainfall south of the I-10 corridor, with
some locally higher totals possible (particularly if a similar
training situation sets up). This rainfall could result in
additional street/river flooding similar to that of the impacts
across the northern zones seen earlier.
Persistent rain will remain in the area through the afternoon,
though coverage and intensity both look to decrease. Most recent
HRRR shows a redevelopment of some stronger storms tomorrow night,
with activity along the coast potentially lingering well into
Thursday morning. Rainfall will taper off thereafter as an area of
surface high pressure moves into the area with conditions on
Thursday night looking quite dry.
Temperature forecast for today remains on track with highs just
under 70 while overnight lows tomorrow dip into the mid to upper
50s. A push of cooler air arrives on Thursday night with lows
dropping into the upper 40s/low 50s for most locations.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue into
Thursday morning, then ending from west to east as the upper level
disturbance slides to the east. A weak area of high pressure
slides into SE Texas providing a brief period of drier conditions
Thursday in to Friday, but a resurgence of moist southerly flow
returns by Friday afternoon. A passing upper level low will tap
into this higher moisture and bringing a chance for showers Friday
evening into the overnight hours. Finally, a large area of high
pressure moves into the area and remains in place over the weekend
into next week providing us with clear skies and dry conditions.
Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be on the mild side with
high temperatures near 70 degrees and low temperatures in the low
to mid 50s. Cooler conditions are expected over the weekend
following the cold front front Friday`s disturbance. High
temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s and lows in the mid 30s
to mid 40s.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Generally IFR/LIFR persisting for most sites. HOU/CXO/UTS/IAH
bouncing between VFR/MVFR/IFR. Next round of showers and storms
expected to move in after midnight, bringing more IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYs across SE TX. Expect these conditions to persist
through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, producing potentially heavy
rainfall, are expected through Wednesday. Patchy, dense sea fog
can also be anticipated into Wednesday. Although a weak front may
nudge the fog a ways off the coast Wednesday night into Thursday,
it should return Thursday night and and remain a possibility until
a stronger front moves in Friday night. Moderate offshore winds
and drier conditions are anticipated behind this front.
Fowler
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 720 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
Portions of the Brazos Valley received 4-6+ inches of rain on
Tuesday leading to numerous reports of impassable roads especially
around Brenham and throughout Washington County. Due to both runoff
from upstream areas and local rainfall, there are numerous gauges in
action stage. A few gauges have risen into minor flood stage
prompting Flood Warnings including LIVT2, OCNT2, BOLT2, and RVRT2.
Additional sites including LBYT2, FCWT2, MTPT2, MBFT2, and NCET2 are
forecast to rise into minor flood stage either later this evening or
on Thursday. An Areal Flood Warning has been issued for FBCT2 where
moderate major flood stage has been reached along with reports of
water over the roadway over Cummins Creek. The morning update from
WGRFC will reflect the latest releases from Lake Conroe/Lake
Livingston and this is expected to result in additional gauges
forecast to crest into minor/moderate flood stage some time on
Thursday. Major flood stage will be possible for some gauges as well
given the additional rises on upstream gauges and projected
continuation of increasing releases from lakes. Multiple Flood
Warnings for area creeks/rivers will likely be in effect for at
least a few days. A Flood Watch remains in effect through 12pm
Wednesday afternoon, but there is potential for this to be
extended with another (albeit less significant) round of rainfall
expected this evening.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 50 66 49 / 80 50 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 55 69 53 / 100 70 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 63 55 62 55 / 90 70 50 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until noon CST today for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-
210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ350-355.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 241320
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
720 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
...New HYDROLOGY...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
Widespread showers and storms continue to pose a heavy rain threat
to the area, with portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
having already received 3-6 inches of rain (with some locally
higher totals) since yesterday morning. This has prompted the
issuance of multiple flash flood warnings, and local emergency
managers have reported widespread impacts to roadways as well as
some high water rescues. Given the continued threat, we have
extended the previously issued Flood Watch for all of SE Texas
through Noon CST today.
As of 2 AM CST, the main axis of rainfall has started to shift to
the south, producing intermittent rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr in
the strongest storms. As it currently stands, another training
situation has yet to materialize and rainfall totals around the
I-10 corridor sit in the 1-2 in range at most with even lower
totals southward. However, mesoanalysis and high-resolution
guidance point to the potential for heavy rain along the I-10
corridor and southward towards the coast remaining elevated well
into the morning. In addition to the midlevel shortwave driving
convection, the heavy rainfall potential will be further aided by
high moisture availability (1.5+ PW), strong 925-850mb moisture
transport, and the area`s presence within the right entrance
region of a strengthening ~110kt jet streak aloft.
Latest high resolution model runs show the current activity
shifting further southward towards the coast over the next few
hours, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms moving through the
area through the early afternoon. This looks to result in roughly
2-4 in of additional rainfall south of the I-10 corridor, with
some locally higher totals possible (particularly if a similar
training situation sets up). This rainfall could result in
additional street/river flooding similar to that of the impacts
across the northern zones seen earlier.
Persistent rain will remain in the area through the afternoon,
though coverage and intensity both look to decrease. Most recent
HRRR shows a redevelopment of some stronger storms tomorrow night,
with activity along the coast potentially lingering well into
Thursday morning. Rainfall will taper off thereafter as an area of
surface high pressure moves into the area with conditions on
Thursday night looking quite dry.
Temperature forecast for today remains on track with highs just
under 70 while overnight lows tomorrow dip into the mid to upper
50s. A push of cooler air arrives on Thursday night with lows
dropping into the upper 40s/low 50s for most locations.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue into
Thursday morning, then ending from west to east as the upper level
disturbance slides to the east. A weak area of high pressure
slides into SE Texas providing a brief period of drier conditions
Thursday in to Friday, but a resurgence of moist southerly flow
returns by Friday afternoon. A passing upper level low will tap
into this higher moisture and bringing a chance for showers Friday
evening into the overnight hours. Finally, a large area of high
pressure moves into the area and remains in place over the weekend
into next week providing us with clear skies and dry conditions.
Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be on the mild side with
high temperatures near 70 degrees and low temperatures in the low
to mid 50s. Cooler conditions are expected over the weekend
following the cold front front Friday`s disturbance. High
temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s and lows in the mid 30s
to mid 40s.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Generally IFR/LIFR persisting for most sites. HOU/CXO/UTS/IAH
bouncing between VFR/MVFR/IFR. Next round of showers and storms
expected to move in after midnight, bringing more IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYs across SE TX. Expect these conditions to persist
through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, producing potentially heavy
rainfall, are expected through Wednesday. Patchy, dense sea fog
can also be anticipated into Wednesday. Although a weak front may
nudge the fog a ways off the coast Wednesday night into Thursday,
it should return Thursday night and and remain a possibility until
a stronger front moves in Friday night. Moderate offshore winds
and drier conditions are anticipated behind this front.
Fowler
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 720 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
Portions of the Brazos Valley received 4-6+ inches of rain on
Tuesday leading to numerous reports of impassable roads especially
around Brenham and throughout Washington County. Due to both runoff
from upstream areas and local rainfall, there are numerous gauges in
action stage. A few gauges have risen into minor flood stage
prompting Flood Warnings including LIVT2, OCNT2, BOLT2, and RVRT2.
Additional sites including LBYT2, FCWT2, MTPT2, MBFT2, and NCET2 are
forecast to rise into minor flood stage either later this evening or
on Thursday. An Areal Flood Warning has been issued for FBCT2 where
moderate major flood stage has been reached along with reports of
water over the roadway over Cummins Creek. The morning update from
WGRFC will reflect the latest releases from Lake Conroe/Lake
Livingston and this is expected to result in additional gauges
forecast to crest into minor/moderate flood stage some time on
Thursday. Major flood stage will be possible for some gauges as well
given the additional rises on upstream gauges and projected
continuation of increasing releases from lakes. Multiple Flood
Warnings for area creeks/rivers will likely be in effect for at
least a few days. A Flood Watch remains in effect through 12pm
Wednesday afternoon, but there is potential for this to be
extended with another (albeit less significant) round of rainfall
expected this evening.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 50 66 49 / 80 50 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 55 69 53 / 100 70 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 63 55 62 55 / 90 70 50 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until noon CST today for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-
210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ350-355.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler
I've received almost 9 inches since Jan 1st. Guess we're stocking up now in preparation for summer ahead? LOL
Another 1.71” since midnight. 5.78” storm total so far.