TD Karl Inland West of Veracruz, MX

[srainhoutx]

12Z Track guidance...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 151440
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE CENTER OF KARL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 1245 UTC. BEFORE LANDFALL...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR 991 MB WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM RELIABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 50-55
KT. BASED ON THIS...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.
DATA FROM THE RADAR IN BELIZE CITY SHOWED THAT KARL WAS DEVELOPING
AN EYE AT LANDFALL...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO OTHER EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST IT REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DEPARTED.

KARL HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/12. KARL REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS
MODELS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE TWO MODEL CAMPS AND LIE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS. THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.

KARL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ONCE THE CENTER REACHES
WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY
ALL GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR KARL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO. KARL SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER ITS
SECOND LANDFALL AND DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO
BY 120 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 18.6N 88.2W 50 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 16/0000Z 19.1N 89.7W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 16/1200Z 20.1N 91.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 17/0000Z 20.9N 93.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 21.3N 95.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 21.5N 98.0W 75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1200Z 21.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[desiredwxgd]

Looks pretty healthy for a storm moving inland.

[srainhoutx]

The core of Karl is remaining intact as it travels inland across the Yucatan...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 151745
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 88.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

About half way across the Peninsula now. Karl is holding together nicely on the trek over the relative flat terrain. Karl looks a bit weaker, but may just hold on to TS status as it re emerges into the BoC...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 152032
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL WEAKENING AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 89.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WNW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

Karl will likely re emerge overnight and we have a full plate of RECON assets ready to fly...

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151630 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT WED 15 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-107 CORRECTION

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
        1. TROPICAL STORM KARL
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 78
        A. 16/1200,1800Z           A. 17/0000,0600Z
        B. AFXXX 0313A KARL        B. AFXXX 0413A KARL
        C. 16/0845Z                C. 16/2045Z
        D. 20.1N 91.7W             D. 20.9N 93.7W
        E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z    E. 16/2330Z TO 17/0600Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

        FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 76
        A. 17/1200,1800Z
        B. AFXXX 0513A KARL
        C. 17/0845Z
        D. 21.3N 95.2W
        E. 17/1130Z TO 17/1800Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. HURRICANE IGOR
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
        A. 16/1800Z
        B. AFXXX 0111A IGOR
        C. 16/1430Z
        D. 21.4N 57.6W
        E. 16/1600Z TO 16/1900Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

        3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON KARL.        
           BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES ON IGOR AT 17/1800Z.

        4. REMARKS: RESEARCH FLIGHTS PLANNED FOR KARL.
        A. THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 25 HR MISSION
           (FL 58,OO0-65,000) WITH TAKEOFF OF 16/1200Z.
        B. THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
           41,000 AND 45,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 16/1730Z.
        C. THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
           35,000 AND 39,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 16/1800Z.
        D. NOAA 42 A P-3 WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION AT 12,000
           FT WITH A 16/1500Z TAKEOFF.
        E. A NASA WB-57 WILL FLY A 6 HR MISSION BETWEEN
           52,000 AND 60,000 FT TAKEOFF AT 16/2100Z.

[srainhoutx]

Looking impressive this afternoon. We will likely see a quickly strengthening storm once Karl gets back over water. Spiral banding features are already setting up...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 152335
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 90.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[Andrew]

Good little article (talks about all the storms):

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100915/ts ... atherstorm

[biggerbyte]

Folks, look for the possibility of some surprises with this system. I've already mentioned that he may stall in the BOC. I'm going to wait to see if any of this begins to actually verify before saying too much. Nothing to worry over yet. Just something to watch.

More later..

[srainhoutx]

Impressive...nearing the BoC...

[Andrew]

Not a big wind-field but that should change:

[biggerbyte]

Very impressive, indeed, Steve. Has anyone noticed the moisture north and northeast of Karl, covering much of the gulf? Some of that is offshore, south of LA, heading towards Texas.

[wxman57]

If there's a surprise (to some), I think it'll be Karl moving inland about 90-100 miles south of the NHC forecast. It's just not gaining latitude and there is a big ridge building north of Karl tomorrow and Friday that may steer it a little south of west and inland between Tuxpan and Veracruz.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for the update wxman57. We know you are busy...

[Andrew]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 160238
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...KARL ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 90.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
NORTHWARD TO CELESTUN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KARL SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE SOON AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEARING THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO RAINBANDS OVER WATER JUST WEST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. KARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
OVER THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE
METEOROLOGICAL STATION AT CHETUMAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN
MEASURED NEARLY 7 INCHES OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KARL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Scott747]

LGEM shot up 20 kts between the 0z and 6z guidance and started noticing a eye possibly trying to form over the last hour or so that was confirmed by the latest disco.

After talking all night with Josh and the recent developments it's looking like he may give it a go. We both felt that one more package should seal the deal and he will make a final decision then. Might really ramp up with it potentially working on a eye so quickly.

[srainhoutx]

Impressive over night developments concerning Karl. Latest RECON data suggests FL winds near 71 kts.