Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 11:01 pmWhen you’re from a small town like me then you’d understand. People from small towns count the suburban areas as part of the city.
Fair enough. Are you from Wharton or El Campo? Both are pretty small towns, but El Campo is a good bit bigger as it's at least over 10,000 in population.
That said, as far is this region is concerned, I mainly view Houston and Galveston as "principal cities": other stuff is either suburbs/secondary cities, or smaller towns/rural.
Honestly, urban clusters have varying definitions due to nuances of employment/social linkages. However, in terms of "singular built-up unit" (city + respective suburbs), the metric called "urban area" represents an accurate structure:
"City proper" (aka municipal boundary) is the narrowest definition ... but it can be quite arbitrary as city limits can be differing sizes due to annexations, consolidations, and other such municipal practices that depend on various nuances (see: Houston's 600+ sq miles versus San Francisco's 47 sq miles)
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"Metro area" is defined by the US government, and is broader than "urban area" ... but the problem is that the "broadness" as defined in terms of entire counties ... and not every square inch of the counties is populated, let alone integrates with the core city. For instance, the whole Chambers county is grouped with "Greater Houston Metro Area" ... but it's not very populated outside of bits adjacent to Baytown, the rest is all wildnerness/marshland. Similar situation with Brazoria county with Pearland versus the rest of the boonies.
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"Combined-statistical area" is the broadest definition as covered by the US government. It also includes entire counties, and covers adjacent metropolitan and micropolitan areas. In the context of this region, places like College Station, El Campo, and Huntsville are actually counted as "micro areas" in addition to the large " Greater Houston Metro Area". The territory covered is similar to the scope of the HGX NWS office coverage.
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A possible broadest definition would be "megapolis/megaregion". This is basically a group of metropolitan areas perceived as one unit given similarities in region, transport, etc so on. However, it does not have its own government (OMB) definition (hence why I mentioned "possible). An example of megaregion would be "BosWash corridor" in reference to Boston, NYC, Philly, and DC" or "Texas Triangle" in reference to Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
336 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024
Winds just above the surface are transitioning to a more southerly
direction...and will continue to do so today. This, and some coastal
troffing setting up off the coast, will transport increasing low
level Gulf moisture into the region. Further aloft, there`s a steady
stream of impulses riding across the area in the sw flow in advance
of an ewd moving trof currently extending along the NM/AZ border.
Currently low levels are a bit too dry for precip to reach the
surface, but that should be changing this afternoon and evening as
they become increasingly saturated. Expecting to see shower
development increase in areal coverage during this time
period...eventually tapering off after midnight as the upper trof
passes to our ene and moisture axis is shunted further e/se.
As far as temps go, lack of sunshine today should limit much in the
way of a warm-up and readings should top out in the 50s. Decreasing
cloud cover and a drier column will allow temps to climb closer to
the 70 degree mark Friday. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024
In spite of temperatures being ~10°F above normal, the weekend looks
to be overall pleasant! Onshore flow and southwesterly to southerly
flow aloft remain in place over the weekend and provide the synoptic
support for warmer than normal temperatures. Expect high
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with low temperatures in
the upper 50s/low 60s on Saturday night and the low to mid 60s on
Sunday night. Moisture advection gets a bit of a bump on Sunday as
surface low pressure develops near the Northern Plains in response
to an upper level trough drifting eastward from the Pacific
Northwest. This is what`s going to bring us our next chance of
showers/storms early next week. The parent surface low develops just
west of the Dakotas on Saturday afternoon, and that`ll lead to an
increase in moisture advection within the warm sector going into
Sunday. PW values increase to 1.0"-1.2" by Sunday afternoon and 1.4"-
1.6" by Monday afternoon. A jet streak associated with the
subtropical jet approaches from northern Mexico into southern Texas
which places us in the left exit region (upper level divergence)
on late Sunday. On top of that, there will be some PVA from
passing shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft...but there will be
a capping inversion in place that may limit us from seeing an
early start to showers. However, I wouldn`t be entirely surprised
if we see a few isolated showers on Sunday afternoon.
Monday night into Tuesday is still trending towards being our best
chances for showers/storms in the long term period...but PoPs extend
beyond that! When I wrote last night`s AFD, it appeared that a
cold front could`ve pushed cleanly through late Monday
night/Tuesday morning. The general trend from the latest
deterministic model run (00Z/Feb 29) show the front stalling out
somewhere around Southeast TX on Tuesday...each model has a
different placement for the stopping point of the front. This is
because the upper level trough providing the push is expected to
remain further north than previously anticipated while the parent
surface low drifts northeastward into eastern Canada.
Things get a bit tricky on Tuesday as another surface low develops
along that quasi-stationary frontal boundary somewhere around the
ARKLATEX. This pushes the bulk of the heavier rain to our east by
late Tuesday. However, moisture continues to linger around and with
additional shortwaves passing through, that`ll keep our rain chances
elevated through midweek. Going into the end of the long term
period, there is fairly good consensus on a shortwave trough
approaching from the southwest CONUS into the Four Corners region
and generating a surface low in the Southern Plains, so there`s a
decent chance that rain chances will extend into the end of the
work week. With ALL of that in mind (especially the lower
probabilities of an early week FROPA), high temperatures are
expected to remain in the upper 70s to low 80s and low
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s into midweek. Even the
lower quartiles of the NBM for high temperatures is in the mid 70s
and most of the GFS/ECMWF ensembles reflect max temperatures in
at least the mid 70s, so it appears that the above normal
temperatures will be with us for quite a while as we March towards
spring (pun very much intended).
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024
VFR ceilings will transition downward into the 2000-3500ft range
from south-to-north this morning into the afternoon as low level
moisture flows back into the region. Combination of this moisture
and a series of upper disturbances moving overhead should eventually
lead to increasing shower development in the afternoon and evening
hours. Probably see best coverage in two places...one along/north of
the US59-I69 corridor...and another offshore. Favored time period
will generally be centered in the 21-06z timeframe. Ceilings will
likely continue falling into the IFR territory north of the metro
area, and along the immediate coast, overnight. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the bays and Gulf
waters today due to moderate northeasterly winds prevailing
following the passage of a cold front on Wednesday morning. Wind
speeds will drop below the advisory threshold later this morning in
the bays, so they`ll transition from an advisory to caution flags at
6am CST. The advisory for the Gulf waters extends through Thursday
night, but may need to be extended for the farshore Gulf waters due
to seas remaining elevated into early Friday morning. Winds and seas
gradually subside late Thursday night/early Friday morning.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop Thursday
afternoon into early Friday as a disturbance pushes through the
region. Onshore flow returns over the weekend out ahead of the next
weather system that brings another round of showers/storms Monday
night into Tuesday.
Cromagnum unfortunately the misery has only just begun, the trends are not you’re friend if you want to see any rain the next several weeks, it looks ugly
The saving grace is that temps in March usually aren't all that hot — so vegetative stress would be low even if prolonged dryness were to verify for the month.
But yes, if rains don't get cranking come April, and especially May, then big trouble happens ... unless the wetter summer forecasts verify.
user:null wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 5:35 pm
The saving grace is that temps in March usually aren't all that hot — so vegetative stress would be low even if prolonged dryness were to verify for the month.
But yes, if rains don't get cranking come April, and especially May, then big trouble happens ... unless the wetter summer forecasts verify.
I hope this year is the exception. We've been seeing warmer Falls over the last 33 years, but last year was more normal. We've also been seeing drier Springs, with again last year being an exception...until that mid June flip to blazing hot.
We need a cooler and wetter spring.
The cool air has overperformed yesterday and today.
