March 2024
June bugs out in full force already. If that's not a testament to how crappy this winter was.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cromagnum hate those bugs, wouldn’t mind them going extinct, just another sign that complete misery is around the corner, lovely
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 041755
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Presently, dense fog is limiting visibilities to below 1 mile along
the coast and in portions of counties bordering the coast. Expect
fog to continue through around mid-morning.
For the rest of today, persistent southerly to southeasterly flow
has drawn a decent amount of tropical moisture into SE Texas over
the last few days, and as a result PWAT values have increased, and
should continue to increase to around 1.4-1.6" by this afternoon.
This will lead to another warm and muggy day as highs reach into the
upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
There is the potential for showers and thunderstorms across SE Texas
today as a mid-upper level shortwave trough moves out of northern
Mexico and into South/Coastal Texas this afternoon and evening.
While PWAT values are elevated, forecast soundings reveal a shallow
layer of tropical moisture. Latest Hi-Res model guidance is
suggesting isolated to scattered showers this morning. Models are
also hinting at the potential for thunderstorms this afternoon as
CAPE values exceed 1500 J/kg and LI values indicate an unstable
environment. 500mb analysis not looking all that impressive as much
of the vorticity remains to our east.
Thunderstorm development will largely depend on where these pockets
of vorticity set up, and will likely be isolated in nature. We
are in the right exit region of a 250mb jet streak (divergence
aloft and convergence at the surface) which will help provide
lifting for storms that develop, and any storms that do develop
will have plenty of energy/instability available, plenty of
moisture, and enough shear to maintain organization (Effective
shear values are around 40 knots). That being said, SPC does have
the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms for today. Damaging wind and large hail would be the
main hazards (DCAPE exceeds 1000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates
are approaching 8.0 C/km this afternoon). Additionally, WPC has
placed portions of SE Texas (areas along and east of a line from
Bryan to Houston to Galveston) in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for Excessive Rainfall. Main concern with this would be that with
the available moisture, some storms could produce heavy downpours
and result in ponding on roadways, especially in urban and low-
lying areas.
Showers and storms will wane off later today with another round of
showers and storms possible on Tuesday as a pre-frontal trough
pushes through the area. Expecting the FROPA to bring a brief
windshift to the area...definitely nothing significant as
temperatures on Tuesday top out in 80s for inland areas and in the
mid to upper 70s along the coast. There is a sliver of the
easternmost CWA in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on
Tuesday; however, expecting that the better dynamics for
thunderstorms will remain off to our east. Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Warm, moist air resident over cooler nearshore waters will
maintain periods of sea fog into the late work week. Some of this
will drift a bit inland during the overnight and morning hours.
Otherwise drier air, though slowly modifying through the day,
will remain in place Wednesday allowing for highs again in the
mid 80s. Flow aloft transitions from zonal to a more swly
direction Thurs-Fri with some troffiness and ejecting shortwaves
across SoCal/Desert Southwest/northern Mexico. Some of these
leading disturbances might track close to northern parts of the
CWA late Thurs & Thurs night allowing for some scattered showers &
thunderstorm development...then eventually into the remainder of
southeast Texas early Friday as a prefrontal trof makes its way
into the area. Global guidance seems to show some decent precip
coverage, but pattern is such that timing and capping might be a
limiting factor for some locations. Cold front itself will fill in
Friday night bringing temps back down closer to seasonal norms
over the weekend. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Cigs and visibilities are gradually increasing across SE Texas,
although many sites are still reporting MVFR conditions. Cloud
decks are expected to continue to lift as the afternoon
progresses, however, IFR cigs are expected to return for much of
the region tonight with some sites lowering to LIFR. Areas of fog
will also result in reduced visibilites and areas along the
coasts will have the added influence of sea fog, which may result
in visibilites of 1SM or less during the overnight to early
morning hours.
Passing showers and isolated storms will continue through early
tonight, with rain chances decreasing overnight into Tue as drier
air moves in from Central TX. Light VRB winds expected tonight,
then becoming W Tue morning.
24
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Sea fog remains the forecast issue along the upper Tx coast...and
probably remain so for most of the work week. Though winds will
briefly turn toward the west Tuesday thanks to a decaying surface
trough, look for very little in the way of drier air to come in,
and expect to have onshore flow back in place by Tuesday evening.
Later in the week, particularly Thursday night, winds will become
a tad bit stronger, and that may be a limiting factor for substantially
dense fog, but time will tell. A more significant front on Friday
will put an end to the fog threat, but we`ll also have to be on
the lookout for winds and waves increasing to require caution
flags or a small craft advisories Friday night and Saturday. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 64 85 58 / 20 50 10 0
Houston (IAH) 79 65 86 63 / 40 50 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 64 73 62 / 30 30 30 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-
355.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...24
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 041755
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Presently, dense fog is limiting visibilities to below 1 mile along
the coast and in portions of counties bordering the coast. Expect
fog to continue through around mid-morning.
For the rest of today, persistent southerly to southeasterly flow
has drawn a decent amount of tropical moisture into SE Texas over
the last few days, and as a result PWAT values have increased, and
should continue to increase to around 1.4-1.6" by this afternoon.
This will lead to another warm and muggy day as highs reach into the
upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
There is the potential for showers and thunderstorms across SE Texas
today as a mid-upper level shortwave trough moves out of northern
Mexico and into South/Coastal Texas this afternoon and evening.
While PWAT values are elevated, forecast soundings reveal a shallow
layer of tropical moisture. Latest Hi-Res model guidance is
suggesting isolated to scattered showers this morning. Models are
also hinting at the potential for thunderstorms this afternoon as
CAPE values exceed 1500 J/kg and LI values indicate an unstable
environment. 500mb analysis not looking all that impressive as much
of the vorticity remains to our east.
Thunderstorm development will largely depend on where these pockets
of vorticity set up, and will likely be isolated in nature. We
are in the right exit region of a 250mb jet streak (divergence
aloft and convergence at the surface) which will help provide
lifting for storms that develop, and any storms that do develop
will have plenty of energy/instability available, plenty of
moisture, and enough shear to maintain organization (Effective
shear values are around 40 knots). That being said, SPC does have
the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms for today. Damaging wind and large hail would be the
main hazards (DCAPE exceeds 1000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates
are approaching 8.0 C/km this afternoon). Additionally, WPC has
placed portions of SE Texas (areas along and east of a line from
Bryan to Houston to Galveston) in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for Excessive Rainfall. Main concern with this would be that with
the available moisture, some storms could produce heavy downpours
and result in ponding on roadways, especially in urban and low-
lying areas.
Showers and storms will wane off later today with another round of
showers and storms possible on Tuesday as a pre-frontal trough
pushes through the area. Expecting the FROPA to bring a brief
windshift to the area...definitely nothing significant as
temperatures on Tuesday top out in 80s for inland areas and in the
mid to upper 70s along the coast. There is a sliver of the
easternmost CWA in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on
Tuesday; however, expecting that the better dynamics for
thunderstorms will remain off to our east. Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Warm, moist air resident over cooler nearshore waters will
maintain periods of sea fog into the late work week. Some of this
will drift a bit inland during the overnight and morning hours.
Otherwise drier air, though slowly modifying through the day,
will remain in place Wednesday allowing for highs again in the
mid 80s. Flow aloft transitions from zonal to a more swly
direction Thurs-Fri with some troffiness and ejecting shortwaves
across SoCal/Desert Southwest/northern Mexico. Some of these
leading disturbances might track close to northern parts of the
CWA late Thurs & Thurs night allowing for some scattered showers &
thunderstorm development...then eventually into the remainder of
southeast Texas early Friday as a prefrontal trof makes its way
into the area. Global guidance seems to show some decent precip
coverage, but pattern is such that timing and capping might be a
limiting factor for some locations. Cold front itself will fill in
Friday night bringing temps back down closer to seasonal norms
over the weekend. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Cigs and visibilities are gradually increasing across SE Texas,
although many sites are still reporting MVFR conditions. Cloud
decks are expected to continue to lift as the afternoon
progresses, however, IFR cigs are expected to return for much of
the region tonight with some sites lowering to LIFR. Areas of fog
will also result in reduced visibilites and areas along the
coasts will have the added influence of sea fog, which may result
in visibilites of 1SM or less during the overnight to early
morning hours.
Passing showers and isolated storms will continue through early
tonight, with rain chances decreasing overnight into Tue as drier
air moves in from Central TX. Light VRB winds expected tonight,
then becoming W Tue morning.
24
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024
Sea fog remains the forecast issue along the upper Tx coast...and
probably remain so for most of the work week. Though winds will
briefly turn toward the west Tuesday thanks to a decaying surface
trough, look for very little in the way of drier air to come in,
and expect to have onshore flow back in place by Tuesday evening.
Later in the week, particularly Thursday night, winds will become
a tad bit stronger, and that may be a limiting factor for substantially
dense fog, but time will tell. A more significant front on Friday
will put an end to the fog threat, but we`ll also have to be on
the lookout for winds and waves increasing to require caution
flags or a small craft advisories Friday night and Saturday. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 64 85 58 / 20 50 10 0
Houston (IAH) 79 65 86 63 / 40 50 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 64 73 62 / 30 30 30 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-
355.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...24
MARINE...47
Yawn. More clouds. More humidity. No rain or cold.
Back to the moderate rain chances then nothing happens. Feels like summer 2023 all over again. Blah.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Mostly mosquito hawks here. Unfortunately, mosquito hawks don't eat mosquitos. They eat veggies - and can be a pest in agriculture and just annoying in gardens. They don't bite or sting.
But the mosquito hawks and weeds/grass are sprouting early - about 3 weeks.
The Saturday cold front looks on time and consistent with cool air marking the beginning of Spring Break. 60s and 40s during the weekend, but sunny. So, Chamber of Commerce weather for us.
Interesting, usually it is 80°F by the end of Spring Break, but GFS sends in another cold front. Euro AI brings the 2nd front as a back door front.
Euro AI and the GEPS Ensemble have a tight gradient of rain moving toward the LA border. GFS and CMC are even less optimistic. ICON is bleak. I virtually refuse to turn on the sprinklers until at least April. Unfortunately, we've seen this movie before.
Chances of rain for Friday have been upped to 50% in CLL.
Icky humid (upper 60s DP) today before a little drier filters in tonight.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
728 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024
Deep moisture convergence and a vort max have continued to produce
thunderstorms across Houston County this morning. Latest Hi-res
model guidance has this activity tracking SE this morning and into
the early afternoon hours as mid-level disturbance moves through.
Current mesoanalysis shows a pocket of CAPE with values around
2000 J/kg generally north of I-10, and with this shortwave and
deep moisture convergence, could see thunderstorms spread west as
they trek southeastward this morning. Most of the activity is
expected to remain east of the I-45 corridor. Should see a
decrease in activity by mid to late afternoon. Easternmost
counties are in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather
with hail as the primary hazard.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024
Mesoanalysis indicates an area of moisture convergence stretching
from the coast and into the metro as well as pockets of vorticity
across the northern CWA at the 500mb level. The latter has become
the focus for thunderstorm development in the northern counties.
With a decent amount of instability and shear, starting to see a
couple of these storms become more organized in structure with
MESH values above 1.0".
06Z HRRR run seems to have initialized well with this current
setup and the ongoing storms in the northern counties. Guidance
suggests that storms could fire up over and south of the Houston
Metro in the next couple of hours, so will continue to monitor
that given the axis of moisture convergence in place over that
area at this time. These cells would be discrete in nature, and
with effective shear values around 35-40 knots, mid-level lapse
rates around 7.5 C/km, and CAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg, they have a
shot at becoming strong to severe with hail as the primary
threat. Any activity around the Houston Metro area should come to
an end by sunrise, with a few thunderstorms lingering around the
northern counties through late morning.
The rest of Tuesday should feature quiet weather with highs in the
80s inland and in the 70s along the coast under mostly sunny to
sunny skies. Clouds and potential for fog will return tonight into
Wednesday morning, courtesy of persistent southerly winds drawing
in low-level moisture along with an inversion.
Wednesday will feature similar weather with highs in the 70s along
the coast and 80s inland and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.
Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in the upper 50s in the
Brazos Valley and portions of the Piney Woods and in the 60s
elsewhere
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024
Moist, warm onshore flow strengthens on Thursday ahead of an
approaching upper-level trough moving in from the west. PWATs
will rise from around 1" at daybreak Thursday to around 1.5" by
sunset Thursday. High temperatures Thursday will rise into the
upper 70s to low 80s for most of the area. Patchy fog, especially
near the coast, will likely persist through Thursday night/Friday
morning. There may be a few isolated showers developing Thursday
afternoon thanks to the increasing moisture and daytime heating,
but the main window of showers and storms will be Thursday night
into Friday afternoon. A prefrontal trough will begin to increase
the coverage of showers and storms as early as Thursday evening,
especially for areas north of around Conroe. This will be the main
area of activity through Friday morning, then a boundary will
slide across the area Friday afternoon increasing coverage across
the area. Current timing places the boundary entering the Bryan-
College Station area shortly before Noon, moving through the area
during the afternoon, and then off to the east around sunset
Friday. There will then be a reinforcing, dry cold front sliding
through the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning from north
to south.
SPC has placed the northern third of the area (generally north of
Conroe) in a Marginal Risk of Severe Storms Thursday into Thursday
night, though it will be very conditional. Storm may struggle to
initialize, but if they do then they may produce large hail or
gusty winds. With the passing boundary Friday, the chance for
strong storms will extend to the coast, but again the greatest
chances will be north of Conroe (SPC continues the 15% chance of
Severe Weather on Friday). Similar to Thursday night, the threat
for severe weather is conditional, but the boundary may be enough
of a upward force that storms may initialize. Hail and gusty winds
will continue to be the main threats with any strong or severe
storms the form. Once the boundary is through the area, the severe
threat ends.
Temperatures Friday night will be much cooler compared to the
last several night overnight lows get into 50s (low 50s up north,
upper 50s along the coast). Surface high pressure builds in over
the weekend into next week bringing us drier and cooler conditions.
High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s over the
weekend, and then low 70s on Monday. Overnight lows will be mid
40s to mid 50s.
Fowler
&&
Icky humid (upper 60s DP) today before a little drier filters in tonight.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
728 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024
Deep moisture convergence and a vort max have continued to produce
thunderstorms across Houston County this morning. Latest Hi-res
model guidance has this activity tracking SE this morning and into
the early afternoon hours as mid-level disturbance moves through.
Current mesoanalysis shows a pocket of CAPE with values around
2000 J/kg generally north of I-10, and with this shortwave and
deep moisture convergence, could see thunderstorms spread west as
they trek southeastward this morning. Most of the activity is
expected to remain east of the I-45 corridor. Should see a
decrease in activity by mid to late afternoon. Easternmost
counties are in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather
with hail as the primary hazard.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024
Mesoanalysis indicates an area of moisture convergence stretching
from the coast and into the metro as well as pockets of vorticity
across the northern CWA at the 500mb level. The latter has become
the focus for thunderstorm development in the northern counties.
With a decent amount of instability and shear, starting to see a
couple of these storms become more organized in structure with
MESH values above 1.0".
06Z HRRR run seems to have initialized well with this current
setup and the ongoing storms in the northern counties. Guidance
suggests that storms could fire up over and south of the Houston
Metro in the next couple of hours, so will continue to monitor
that given the axis of moisture convergence in place over that
area at this time. These cells would be discrete in nature, and
with effective shear values around 35-40 knots, mid-level lapse
rates around 7.5 C/km, and CAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg, they have a
shot at becoming strong to severe with hail as the primary
threat. Any activity around the Houston Metro area should come to
an end by sunrise, with a few thunderstorms lingering around the
northern counties through late morning.
The rest of Tuesday should feature quiet weather with highs in the
80s inland and in the 70s along the coast under mostly sunny to
sunny skies. Clouds and potential for fog will return tonight into
Wednesday morning, courtesy of persistent southerly winds drawing
in low-level moisture along with an inversion.
Wednesday will feature similar weather with highs in the 70s along
the coast and 80s inland and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.
Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in the upper 50s in the
Brazos Valley and portions of the Piney Woods and in the 60s
elsewhere
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024
Moist, warm onshore flow strengthens on Thursday ahead of an
approaching upper-level trough moving in from the west. PWATs
will rise from around 1" at daybreak Thursday to around 1.5" by
sunset Thursday. High temperatures Thursday will rise into the
upper 70s to low 80s for most of the area. Patchy fog, especially
near the coast, will likely persist through Thursday night/Friday
morning. There may be a few isolated showers developing Thursday
afternoon thanks to the increasing moisture and daytime heating,
but the main window of showers and storms will be Thursday night
into Friday afternoon. A prefrontal trough will begin to increase
the coverage of showers and storms as early as Thursday evening,
especially for areas north of around Conroe. This will be the main
area of activity through Friday morning, then a boundary will
slide across the area Friday afternoon increasing coverage across
the area. Current timing places the boundary entering the Bryan-
College Station area shortly before Noon, moving through the area
during the afternoon, and then off to the east around sunset
Friday. There will then be a reinforcing, dry cold front sliding
through the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning from north
to south.
SPC has placed the northern third of the area (generally north of
Conroe) in a Marginal Risk of Severe Storms Thursday into Thursday
night, though it will be very conditional. Storm may struggle to
initialize, but if they do then they may produce large hail or
gusty winds. With the passing boundary Friday, the chance for
strong storms will extend to the coast, but again the greatest
chances will be north of Conroe (SPC continues the 15% chance of
Severe Weather on Friday). Similar to Thursday night, the threat
for severe weather is conditional, but the boundary may be enough
of a upward force that storms may initialize. Hail and gusty winds
will continue to be the main threats with any strong or severe
storms the form. Once the boundary is through the area, the severe
threat ends.
Temperatures Friday night will be much cooler compared to the
last several night overnight lows get into 50s (low 50s up north,
upper 50s along the coast). Surface high pressure builds in over
the weekend into next week bringing us drier and cooler conditions.
High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s over the
weekend, and then low 70s on Monday. Overnight lows will be mid
40s to mid 50s.
Fowler
&&
Same old areas to our northeast getting everything like normal.
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 942
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
It has reached 90 degrees at Hooks airport. Too soon---way too soon for the heat!!!
84°F at my house. Y’all can have all that concrete. I like my vegetation.TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 4:48 pm It has reached 90 degrees at Hooks airport. Too soon---way too soon for the heat!!!
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Yeah i have no natural vegetation around my apartment, just stone walkways, roads, nada in the plant/ tree department, definitely feels a bit warmer compared to some areas, least I have a pool to escape the dreaded mosquitoes and heat!
90°F high in CLL today. However, dry air blew through. The DP is 46° instead of 68°F. A welcome trade!
Welp, the dry air left the building. The dry front just eased back north. Dangit. There's DP in the low 50s in Caldwell and 40s west of Rockdale.
Ugh. Today was disgusting. Humidity/fog -> humidity/heat -> dry/heat
I hate it. I am dreading Summer like no other time I can recall. Oppressive heat, I’m sure, plus what looks to be an insanely active hurricane season. I may just move, ultimately. This isn’t even for the birds.
I hate it. I am dreading Summer like no other time I can recall. Oppressive heat, I’m sure, plus what looks to be an insanely active hurricane season. I may just move, ultimately. This isn’t even for the birds.
I managed to get a surprise .24” yesterday evening all in about 5 minutes.
NWS raised Friday’s rain chances to 70%. Hopefully not another Lucy.
At least after the next front it will be back to normal for awhile. Looks like a pleasant way to start spring break.
NWS raised Friday’s rain chances to 70%. Hopefully not another Lucy.
At least after the next front it will be back to normal for awhile. Looks like a pleasant way to start spring break.
I'm already seeing the cap mentioned in quite a few Friday forecast so don't get your hopes up with that NWS number. Hopefully the cap breaks.jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:57 pm I managed to get a surprise .24” yesterday evening all in about 5 minutes.
NWS raised Friday’s rain chances to 70%. Hopefully not another Lucy.
At least after the next front it will be back to normal for awhile. Looks like a pleasant way to start spring break.