Don’t get your hopes up for tomorrow. WPC 7 day forecast calls for less than a quarter inch on average. Models are looking better for rain towards the end of next week but that’s far out so I don’t trust it.JDsGN wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:57 amI'm already seeing the cap mentioned in quite a few Friday forecast so don't get your hopes up with that NWS number. Hopefully the cap breaks.jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:57 pm I managed to get a surprise .24” yesterday evening all in about 5 minutes.
NWS raised Friday’s rain chances to 70%. Hopefully not another Lucy.
At least after the next front it will be back to normal for awhile. Looks like a pleasant way to start spring break.
March 2024
It’s now down to 40%. Believe me I never got my hopes up. Been preaching a dry spring for awhile.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:59 amDon’t get your hopes up for tomorrow. WPC 7 day forecast calls for less than a quarter inch on average. Models are looking better for rain towards the end of next week but that’s far out so I don’t trust it.JDsGN wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:57 amI'm already seeing the cap mentioned in quite a few Friday forecast so don't get your hopes up with that NWS number. Hopefully the cap breaks.jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:57 pm I managed to get a surprise .24” yesterday evening all in about 5 minutes.
NWS raised Friday’s rain chances to 70%. Hopefully not another Lucy.
At least after the next front it will be back to normal for awhile. Looks like a pleasant way to start spring break.
Rain chances have tanked here to 30%.
I'd hate to run the sprinkler system this early.
I'd hate to run the sprinkler system this early.
Y’all will more than likely have to wait till late next week for any rain.
There *could* be a dry line coming through late tonight. Hope we get lucky.
Yep. So, we're saying there's a chance - maybe near dawn....and moving into the HOU area in the afternoon. I hope it is a cap breaker.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
555 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Conditions should remain cloudy, but largely benign tonight in SE
Texas. Isolated showers and storms will be possible this evening
through the early morning hours of Friday as an upper level trough
treks eastward through the Great Basin/Desert Southwest. Breezy
southeasterly winds will inhibit fog development inland, though
patchy sea fog remains possible near the coastline. Cloudy skies and
ample moisture should limit diurnal cooling, keeping lows for early
Friday morning in the mid/upper 60s.
On Friday the upper level trough should sweep across the
Central/Southern Plains, draping a dryline & cold front across the
region. PWs of 1.1-1.7 inches, impulses aloft and forcing form the
initial dry line should bring scattered to isolated showers & storms
from the early morning through the afternoon. This environment will
feature +65 kts of bulk shear, +100 kts cloud layer shear with lapse
rates in excess of 6.5 degC/KM. ML CAPE ranges from 1000-2000 J/KG,
with the highest instability present north of the I-10 corridor. In
these areas, LI values approach -6 to -8 and 3KM CAPE nears 100
J/KG. Areas north of a line from Collage Station to Livingston will
be under a slight (level 2/5) risk of severe weather on Friday.
Meanwhile, areas south of this line and north of I-10 will be under
a marginal (1/5) risk of severe weather. These storms will be
capable of producing all severe hazards, primarily large hail and
damaging winds. Isolated tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out.
The dryline should push off the coast Friday evening, with the
reinforcing cold font filling in behind it Friday night. CAA in the
wake of the FROPA will bring lows for Saturday morning in the upper
40s/mid 50s.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
With the exit of the surface cold front prior to daybreak on
Saturday, we will enter into a relatively benign synoptic pattern
characterized by cooler and drier conditions that should prevail
through the weekend and well into next week. That being said,
winds through Saturday afternoon will remain gusty, as sustained
wind speeds approach 20 mph with higher gusts possible. Wind
speeds along the immediate coast will be a bit higher, and a Wind
Advisory could very well be required. With a surface high settling
overhead by early Sunday, winds will relax. Much more seasonable
temperatures can also be expected through the duration of the
weekend, with highs on both Saturday and Sunday remaining in the
60s area wide while lows drop into the 40s to near 50 along the
coast. A midlevel low will traverse the region late on Sunday, but
moisture/instability levels will be insufficient to trigger any
rainfall.
The eastward exit of high pressure on Monday will allow for the
return of a southeasterly flow regime, gradually resulting in
warming temperatures and increasing near-surface moisture through
our next potential widespread rainfall towards the end of the
week. Highs will break into the low 70s on Monday, the mid 70s on
Tuesday, and the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday. A wet
pattern does not look to return in earnest until Thursday/Friday,
when global models currently favor the development of a coastal
low that could bring widespread rainfall to the region (a bit too
early to talk specifics for now).
Cady
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
555 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
Conditions should remain cloudy, but largely benign tonight in SE
Texas. Isolated showers and storms will be possible this evening
through the early morning hours of Friday as an upper level trough
treks eastward through the Great Basin/Desert Southwest. Breezy
southeasterly winds will inhibit fog development inland, though
patchy sea fog remains possible near the coastline. Cloudy skies and
ample moisture should limit diurnal cooling, keeping lows for early
Friday morning in the mid/upper 60s.
On Friday the upper level trough should sweep across the
Central/Southern Plains, draping a dryline & cold front across the
region. PWs of 1.1-1.7 inches, impulses aloft and forcing form the
initial dry line should bring scattered to isolated showers & storms
from the early morning through the afternoon. This environment will
feature +65 kts of bulk shear, +100 kts cloud layer shear with lapse
rates in excess of 6.5 degC/KM. ML CAPE ranges from 1000-2000 J/KG,
with the highest instability present north of the I-10 corridor. In
these areas, LI values approach -6 to -8 and 3KM CAPE nears 100
J/KG. Areas north of a line from Collage Station to Livingston will
be under a slight (level 2/5) risk of severe weather on Friday.
Meanwhile, areas south of this line and north of I-10 will be under
a marginal (1/5) risk of severe weather. These storms will be
capable of producing all severe hazards, primarily large hail and
damaging winds. Isolated tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out.
The dryline should push off the coast Friday evening, with the
reinforcing cold font filling in behind it Friday night. CAA in the
wake of the FROPA will bring lows for Saturday morning in the upper
40s/mid 50s.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024
With the exit of the surface cold front prior to daybreak on
Saturday, we will enter into a relatively benign synoptic pattern
characterized by cooler and drier conditions that should prevail
through the weekend and well into next week. That being said,
winds through Saturday afternoon will remain gusty, as sustained
wind speeds approach 20 mph with higher gusts possible. Wind
speeds along the immediate coast will be a bit higher, and a Wind
Advisory could very well be required. With a surface high settling
overhead by early Sunday, winds will relax. Much more seasonable
temperatures can also be expected through the duration of the
weekend, with highs on both Saturday and Sunday remaining in the
60s area wide while lows drop into the 40s to near 50 along the
coast. A midlevel low will traverse the region late on Sunday, but
moisture/instability levels will be insufficient to trigger any
rainfall.
The eastward exit of high pressure on Monday will allow for the
return of a southeasterly flow regime, gradually resulting in
warming temperatures and increasing near-surface moisture through
our next potential widespread rainfall towards the end of the
week. Highs will break into the low 70s on Monday, the mid 70s on
Tuesday, and the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday. A wet
pattern does not look to return in earnest until Thursday/Friday,
when global models currently favor the development of a coastal
low that could bring widespread rainfall to the region (a bit too
early to talk specifics for now).
Cady
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 081234 CCA
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
A broad upper-level low is currently swinging through the Desert
Southwest with a preceding shortwave moving through Texas - this
will be the cause of the active weather this morning and
afternoon. Southerly flow at the surface is pumping abundant
moisture into SE Texas which has already fueled some isolated
showers to pop up across the region. Near sunrise, we will start
to see an increase in coverage of the showers as well as start to
see isolated thunderstorms developing north of I-10. There is
decent instability, lapse rates, and abundant shear in place over
the northern third of the region, so once the cap erodes after
sunrise then we can expect some strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms developing. The cap will be more stubborn the
further to the coast you get, but cannot out-rule an isolated
thunderstorm during peak heating hours this afternoon. SPC has
areas northwest of a line extending from B/CS area to Conroe to
the Liberty-Chambers county line in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe thunderstorms, and then Houston, Trinity, and Polk
counties in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). All severe thunderstorm
hazards are in play, including an isolated tornado risk, but the
main hazards of concern will be large hail and strong winds. The
thunderstorm threat will end this afternoon as a boundary slides
from west to east across the area ushering in drier conditions.
Afternoon high temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to low
80s across the area thanks to that WAA ahead of that approaching
disturbance. A cold front will move through the area tonight
bringing temperatures down into the low to mid 50s - about a 10 to
15 degree drop compared to right now. The start to the weekend is
looking to be on the cooler side with high temperatures in low to
mid 60s. Clearer skies will allow for temperatures to drop even
more Saturday night with low to mid 40s expected across much of
the area and even into the upper 30s in Houston County.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
On Sunday, partly cloudy to cloudy skies along with lighter
northeast to east winds and highs in the 60s can be expected as
surface high pressure moves across eastern Texas. Although a mid
to upper level trough is to move across the Southern Plains Sunday
into early Monday, the surface high pressure and insufficient low
level moisture should be enough to keep us rain free. The lows
Sunday night into early Monday will be cooler, ranging in the
upper 30s to low 40s along the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
region, the mid to upper 40s over the rest of the inland portions,
and the upper 40s to low 50s along the immediate coasts.
Early next week into at least mid week, weather conditions will
remain tranquil. With onshore flow returning on Monday and
continuing through mid week, a gradual warming trend is to be
expected. The highs will increase into the upper 60s to low 70s on
Monday and continue to warm up each day, ultimately reaching the
upper 70s to low 80s by Wednesday. The low temperatures will
follow the same trend with lows going from the upper 40s to low
50s early in the week into the low to mid 60s by midweek.
According to the latest model guidance, our next best chance for
rain chances could be Thursday and/or Friday as a coastal trough
or coastal low develops near the Texas coastline and a few upper
level disturbances move aloft. It is too early to tell the exact
timing of the rain activity and how much rainfall we will
receive...but for this forecast package, we could have showers
and isolated thunderstorms starting as early as Thursday morning
and could continue well into Friday.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will persist through the next
few hours, then coverage will increase by the mid morning as a
boundary slides approaches the region combined with daytime
heating. Greatest chance for TS will be IAH northwards, but
cannot out rule an isolated storm down towards the coast during
the late afternoon. The showers and storms will end from west to
east during the early to late afternoon as the boundary slides
through.
IFR to MVFR CIGs between 600 and 1200ft and patchy fog will
persist until that boundary passes through ushering in drier
conditions. VFR conditions will occur this evening, but wrap
around moisture will cause a return of MVFR CIGs to CXO, UTS, and
CLL tonight into Saturday morning.
Southerly winds around 5 to 10kt will continue through the morning
becoming westerly then northwesterly this afternoon and evening. A
reinforcing cold front will move through the area tonight causing
northwesterly winds to increase to around 15kt with gusts to 25kt
possible. These elevated winds will stick around through much of
Saturday.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
Areas of sea fog developed early this morning over the bays and
parts of the Gulf waters with visibilities reduced to less than 1
NM in some locations. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM
this morning, but may be extended another hour or so. A cold
front will move across Southeast tonight, possibly pushing into
the coastal waters by early Saturday morning, which ends the sea
fog threat over the bays and Gulf waters. However, strong
northerly winds and elevated seas will be developing in the wake
of the front, resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions
Saturday morning through Saturday night. In addition, expect
showers and thunderstorms to ahead and along the front, which
could result in locally higher winds and seas.
Conditions improve on Sunday, and winds and seas will gradually
subside throughout the day. Light easterly winds expected Monday
as high pressure moves across eastern Texas and onshore flow
returns Tuesday and prevail through the end of the work week.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 49 61 42 / 50 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 54 64 47 / 60 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 76 56 65 52 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ330-
335.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ335-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 4 AM CST Sunday for
GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...24
FXUS64 KHGX 081234 CCA
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
A broad upper-level low is currently swinging through the Desert
Southwest with a preceding shortwave moving through Texas - this
will be the cause of the active weather this morning and
afternoon. Southerly flow at the surface is pumping abundant
moisture into SE Texas which has already fueled some isolated
showers to pop up across the region. Near sunrise, we will start
to see an increase in coverage of the showers as well as start to
see isolated thunderstorms developing north of I-10. There is
decent instability, lapse rates, and abundant shear in place over
the northern third of the region, so once the cap erodes after
sunrise then we can expect some strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms developing. The cap will be more stubborn the
further to the coast you get, but cannot out-rule an isolated
thunderstorm during peak heating hours this afternoon. SPC has
areas northwest of a line extending from B/CS area to Conroe to
the Liberty-Chambers county line in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe thunderstorms, and then Houston, Trinity, and Polk
counties in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). All severe thunderstorm
hazards are in play, including an isolated tornado risk, but the
main hazards of concern will be large hail and strong winds. The
thunderstorm threat will end this afternoon as a boundary slides
from west to east across the area ushering in drier conditions.
Afternoon high temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to low
80s across the area thanks to that WAA ahead of that approaching
disturbance. A cold front will move through the area tonight
bringing temperatures down into the low to mid 50s - about a 10 to
15 degree drop compared to right now. The start to the weekend is
looking to be on the cooler side with high temperatures in low to
mid 60s. Clearer skies will allow for temperatures to drop even
more Saturday night with low to mid 40s expected across much of
the area and even into the upper 30s in Houston County.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
On Sunday, partly cloudy to cloudy skies along with lighter
northeast to east winds and highs in the 60s can be expected as
surface high pressure moves across eastern Texas. Although a mid
to upper level trough is to move across the Southern Plains Sunday
into early Monday, the surface high pressure and insufficient low
level moisture should be enough to keep us rain free. The lows
Sunday night into early Monday will be cooler, ranging in the
upper 30s to low 40s along the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
region, the mid to upper 40s over the rest of the inland portions,
and the upper 40s to low 50s along the immediate coasts.
Early next week into at least mid week, weather conditions will
remain tranquil. With onshore flow returning on Monday and
continuing through mid week, a gradual warming trend is to be
expected. The highs will increase into the upper 60s to low 70s on
Monday and continue to warm up each day, ultimately reaching the
upper 70s to low 80s by Wednesday. The low temperatures will
follow the same trend with lows going from the upper 40s to low
50s early in the week into the low to mid 60s by midweek.
According to the latest model guidance, our next best chance for
rain chances could be Thursday and/or Friday as a coastal trough
or coastal low develops near the Texas coastline and a few upper
level disturbances move aloft. It is too early to tell the exact
timing of the rain activity and how much rainfall we will
receive...but for this forecast package, we could have showers
and isolated thunderstorms starting as early as Thursday morning
and could continue well into Friday.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will persist through the next
few hours, then coverage will increase by the mid morning as a
boundary slides approaches the region combined with daytime
heating. Greatest chance for TS will be IAH northwards, but
cannot out rule an isolated storm down towards the coast during
the late afternoon. The showers and storms will end from west to
east during the early to late afternoon as the boundary slides
through.
IFR to MVFR CIGs between 600 and 1200ft and patchy fog will
persist until that boundary passes through ushering in drier
conditions. VFR conditions will occur this evening, but wrap
around moisture will cause a return of MVFR CIGs to CXO, UTS, and
CLL tonight into Saturday morning.
Southerly winds around 5 to 10kt will continue through the morning
becoming westerly then northwesterly this afternoon and evening. A
reinforcing cold front will move through the area tonight causing
northwesterly winds to increase to around 15kt with gusts to 25kt
possible. These elevated winds will stick around through much of
Saturday.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
Areas of sea fog developed early this morning over the bays and
parts of the Gulf waters with visibilities reduced to less than 1
NM in some locations. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM
this morning, but may be extended another hour or so. A cold
front will move across Southeast tonight, possibly pushing into
the coastal waters by early Saturday morning, which ends the sea
fog threat over the bays and Gulf waters. However, strong
northerly winds and elevated seas will be developing in the wake
of the front, resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions
Saturday morning through Saturday night. In addition, expect
showers and thunderstorms to ahead and along the front, which
could result in locally higher winds and seas.
Conditions improve on Sunday, and winds and seas will gradually
subside throughout the day. Light easterly winds expected Monday
as high pressure moves across eastern Texas and onshore flow
returns Tuesday and prevail through the end of the work week.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 49 61 42 / 50 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 54 64 47 / 60 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 76 56 65 52 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ330-
335.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ335-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 4 AM CST Sunday for
GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...24
The front just blew through and redefined broken line of showers.
For a moment it looked dark and like it was going to pour buckets. Now, Lucy has pulled out the football again.
For a moment it looked dark and like it was going to pour buckets. Now, Lucy has pulled out the football again.
Yep, everything staying well north of Houston
Now the NWS raised chances back to 60%. It’s a see-saw, they don’t know. Good luck planning with that. (No I don’t have my hopes up)
Looking like no rain for anyone. Maybe a few sprinkles. Other than that? 
Nadda!
Nadda!Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Hi everyone! It has been a while. I just finished a set of exams this week and spring break is about to begin so I will be heading back to Texas tomorrow. Looking at models, the setup towards the end of next week looks interesting. Both the GFS and Euro show a cutoff low forming over the Southwest towards the middle of next week with the propagation of it being key for storms towards the end of next week. Euro solution is nicer with the cutoff low being nudged further south towards Mexico. This will eject several shortwaves towards our area if this were to occur. Personally, I want to see the 12z Euro today to see if it continues the trend, but I like the overall setup. A decaying El Nino setup generally favors above-average precip totals in spring for our area so I would not be surprised to see the GFS start caving to a Euro solution.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Captain, Our Captain. We have missed you. Hurry and graduate so you can get the Pro Met tag!!captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 10:59 am Hi everyone! It has been a while. I just finished a set of exams this week and spring break is about to begin so I will be heading back to Texas tomorrow. Looking at models, the setup towards the end of next week looks interesting. Both the GFS and Euro show a cutoff low forming over the Southwest towards the middle of next week with the propagation of it being key for storms towards the end of next week. Euro solution is nicer with the cutoff low being nudged further south towards Mexico. This will eject several shortwaves towards our area if this were to occur. Personally, I want to see the 12z Euro today to see if it continues the trend, but I like the overall setup. A decaying El Nino setup generally favors above-average precip totals in spring for our area so I would not be surprised to see the GFS start caving to a Euro solution.
You sure that was the front? I don't think its pushing through till later this evening? Its 83 and humid at my house
Another fatass miss like usual on the rain. How can it be this ungodly humid and never rain?
Last edited by Cromagnum on Fri Mar 08, 2024 2:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Does 0.02” count? 
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Im not falling for the models showing a cut off low next week, ill believe the rain when i see it falling from the sky,
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 082034
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
234 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
Overall, the inability to erode midlevel capping has largely
inhibited the development of any stronger storms today, with the
majority of midlevel support eroding as a shortwave trough
continues to push out of the area and an advancing surface
boundary brings an influx of cooler and drier air(dew points
across the Brazos Valley have already dipped into the upper 50s as
of 2 PM CDT). It`s not totally impossible to rule out another
shower or two north of I-10 as the last lingering bit of shortwave
energy aloft moves through the region over the next couple of
hours, but this potential remains unlikely for the time being with
the progression of this drier and more stable airmass.
A reinforcing cold front will push into the area overnight, with
gusty northwest winds developing behind the boundary as low
temperatures drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Saturday will
be characterized by these gusty conditions as sustained wind
speeds reach around 20 mph inland and around 25 mph along the
immediate coast. A Wind Advisory may be needed for the barrier
islands by the morning hours depending on how conditions develop
overnight. Daytime highs will remain in the mid 60s, which
combined with a reduction in surface dew points to the 40s should
provide for a pleasant day aside from the aforementioned wind
gusts.
Winds begin to taper off on Saturday night as an area of surface
high pressure moves overhead. While this will cause a slight
reduction in CAA, clearer skies should allow for overnight lows to
drop into the 40s for most locations.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
Surface high pressure over the ArkLaTex region will pave the way for
benign conditions through the rest of the weekend and into early
next week. Stronger winds in the upper levels and PVA from a
shortwave trough passing through the TX Panhandle/OK will bring
cloudy skies during the day on Sunday. Paired with northeasterly
winds and drier conditions, highs for Sunday afternoon are expected
to be in the 60s area-wide. Surface high pressure should slide
eastward Sunday night, bringing east to southeasterly winds
overnight into the beginning of next week. This will usher in a
warming trend through mid next week with highs for Wednesday
reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s and overnight lows in the mid/upper
60s. A series of disturbances will pass north of our area during
this first half of the week, tightening the pressure gradient and
bringing breezy conditions. However, PWs will generally remain under
1.0 inch, which should keep rain chances out of the forecast during
this time frame.
An upper level trough will dig into the Great Basin on Wednesday,
later transitioning into a cutoff low on Thursday as it drops into
the Desert Southwest. The resulting increase in onshore flow, rising
PWs of 1.1-1.7" and shortwave energy passing overhead should bring
scattered to isolated showers/storms to SE Texas on Thursday and
potentially through the end of the work week.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
Scattered storms, although currently struggling to materialize,
remain a possibility over the next couple hours for terminals
north of I-10 (i.e. IAH northward). While the chance of stronger
storms has decreased, any storms that do develop still have the
potential to produce some gusty winds. Scattered showers are
expected for locations closer to the coast. Furthermore, MVFR cigs
generally continue to prevail (IFR near the coast) ahead of the
approach of a boundary that will move through the area this
afternoon. As this occurs, winds will shift to the NW as cigs lift
to VFR. Some gusts in excess of 20 knots are expected. Tonight,
wrap-around moisture may produce another period of MVFR cigs for
locations north of IAH, but conditions will again improve by
morning. Gusty winds prevail into tomorrow, with some gusts at
times reaching 25 to 30 knots.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
Light southwest winds will become northwesterly this evening as a
boundary pushes offshore. Winds will range from 20 to 30 knots
overnight, warranting Small Craft Advisories through Saturday
evening for the bays and early Sunday for the Gulf waters. These
strong winds will bring lower tide levels across the bays for
Saturday morning. Winds and seas decrease on Sunday as high pressure
moves overhead. Northeasterly during the day on Sunday will later
shift east/southeasterly heading into next week. Lighter winds and
calmer seas can be expected across all waters throughout the first
half of the upcoming work week.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 47 62 42 64 / 30 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 53 65 47 67 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 55 65 52 64 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday
for GMZ330.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ335.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM CST Sunday
for GMZ350-370.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 4 AM CST Sunday for
GMZ355-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 082034
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
234 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
Overall, the inability to erode midlevel capping has largely
inhibited the development of any stronger storms today, with the
majority of midlevel support eroding as a shortwave trough
continues to push out of the area and an advancing surface
boundary brings an influx of cooler and drier air(dew points
across the Brazos Valley have already dipped into the upper 50s as
of 2 PM CDT). It`s not totally impossible to rule out another
shower or two north of I-10 as the last lingering bit of shortwave
energy aloft moves through the region over the next couple of
hours, but this potential remains unlikely for the time being with
the progression of this drier and more stable airmass.
A reinforcing cold front will push into the area overnight, with
gusty northwest winds developing behind the boundary as low
temperatures drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Saturday will
be characterized by these gusty conditions as sustained wind
speeds reach around 20 mph inland and around 25 mph along the
immediate coast. A Wind Advisory may be needed for the barrier
islands by the morning hours depending on how conditions develop
overnight. Daytime highs will remain in the mid 60s, which
combined with a reduction in surface dew points to the 40s should
provide for a pleasant day aside from the aforementioned wind
gusts.
Winds begin to taper off on Saturday night as an area of surface
high pressure moves overhead. While this will cause a slight
reduction in CAA, clearer skies should allow for overnight lows to
drop into the 40s for most locations.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
Surface high pressure over the ArkLaTex region will pave the way for
benign conditions through the rest of the weekend and into early
next week. Stronger winds in the upper levels and PVA from a
shortwave trough passing through the TX Panhandle/OK will bring
cloudy skies during the day on Sunday. Paired with northeasterly
winds and drier conditions, highs for Sunday afternoon are expected
to be in the 60s area-wide. Surface high pressure should slide
eastward Sunday night, bringing east to southeasterly winds
overnight into the beginning of next week. This will usher in a
warming trend through mid next week with highs for Wednesday
reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s and overnight lows in the mid/upper
60s. A series of disturbances will pass north of our area during
this first half of the week, tightening the pressure gradient and
bringing breezy conditions. However, PWs will generally remain under
1.0 inch, which should keep rain chances out of the forecast during
this time frame.
An upper level trough will dig into the Great Basin on Wednesday,
later transitioning into a cutoff low on Thursday as it drops into
the Desert Southwest. The resulting increase in onshore flow, rising
PWs of 1.1-1.7" and shortwave energy passing overhead should bring
scattered to isolated showers/storms to SE Texas on Thursday and
potentially through the end of the work week.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
Scattered storms, although currently struggling to materialize,
remain a possibility over the next couple hours for terminals
north of I-10 (i.e. IAH northward). While the chance of stronger
storms has decreased, any storms that do develop still have the
potential to produce some gusty winds. Scattered showers are
expected for locations closer to the coast. Furthermore, MVFR cigs
generally continue to prevail (IFR near the coast) ahead of the
approach of a boundary that will move through the area this
afternoon. As this occurs, winds will shift to the NW as cigs lift
to VFR. Some gusts in excess of 20 knots are expected. Tonight,
wrap-around moisture may produce another period of MVFR cigs for
locations north of IAH, but conditions will again improve by
morning. Gusty winds prevail into tomorrow, with some gusts at
times reaching 25 to 30 knots.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024
Light southwest winds will become northwesterly this evening as a
boundary pushes offshore. Winds will range from 20 to 30 knots
overnight, warranting Small Craft Advisories through Saturday
evening for the bays and early Sunday for the Gulf waters. These
strong winds will bring lower tide levels across the bays for
Saturday morning. Winds and seas decrease on Sunday as high pressure
moves overhead. Northeasterly during the day on Sunday will later
shift east/southeasterly heading into next week. Lighter winds and
calmer seas can be expected across all waters throughout the first
half of the upcoming work week.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 47 62 42 64 / 30 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 53 65 47 67 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 55 65 52 64 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday
for GMZ330.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ335.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM CST Sunday
for GMZ350-370.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 4 AM CST Sunday for
GMZ355-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...03