March 2024

[Cromagnum]

Im not falling for the models showing a cut off low next week, ill believe the rain when i see it falling from the sky,

This is where I'm at with it. I'm dragging the hose around soon in all likelihood.

[captainbarbossa19]

Both the Euro and GFS now show a solution of an upper-level cutoff low developing towards mid-next week near the Arizona/Mexico border. The Euro has a trough swing down from the Midwest which breaks up the low by Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS shows a weaker trough over the Midwest which allows the cutoff low to remain organized and slowly propagate eastward resulting in a longer period of rain chances. Regardless, this setup is looking increasingly likely with model agreement of some cutoff low forming. These types of setups almost always are heavy rain producers before the event is over, especially in the spring.

[Cpv17]

Both the Euro and GFS now show a solution of an upper-level cutoff low developing towards mid-next week near the Arizona/Mexico border. The Euro has a trough swing down from the Midwest which breaks up the low by Saturday. Meanwhile, the GFS shows a weaker trough over the Midwest which allows the cutoff low to remain organized and slowly propagate eastward resulting in a longer period of rain chances. Regardless, this setup is looking increasingly likely with model agreement of some cutoff low forming. These types of setups almost always are heavy rain producers before the event is over, especially in the spring.

Still doesn’t look like much south of I-10.

[captainbarbossa19]

Both the Euro and GFS now show a solution of an upper-level cutoff low developing towards mid-next week near the Arizona/Mexico border. The Euro has a trough swing down from the Midwest which breaks up the low by Saturday. Meanwhile, the GFS shows a weaker trough over the Midwest which allows the cutoff low to remain organized and slowly propagate eastward resulting in a longer period of rain chances. Regardless, this setup is looking increasingly likely with model agreement of some cutoff low forming. These types of setups almost always are heavy rain producers before the event is over, especially in the spring.

Still doesn’t look like much south of I-10.

The Euro and GFS have numerous shortwaves passing along the coast and inland. They disagree on timing but both show the cutoff low. I wouldn't focus too much on rainfall totals but the synoptic setup. The dynamics will tell a lot more of the story.

[Stratton20]

We will see, not getting my hopes up

[DoctorMu]

The sun is out. Temperatures in the 50s with a cool northerly breeze. DP = 41°F. An ideal day for CLL. A near carbon copy for tomorrow.

A/C and sprinklers are off, although I may run the sprinklers tomorrow after some yardwork.

Enjoy it while it lasts!

[DoctorMu]

Euro AI has some coast low forming. GFS hammers us with a series of unsettled events. CMC is more of what I would expect. The Ensembles bring in rain, but late in the forecast period.

[Cpv17]

Euro AI has some coast low forming. GFS hammers us with a series of unsettled events. CMC is more of what I would expect. The Ensembles bring in rain, but late in the forecast period.

You’re quite infatuated with the CMC lol

[Thundersleet]

Ten days, seven hours, & ~thirty minutes until the start of Astronomical Spring.

[Ptarmigan]

Does 0.02” count?

Beggar can't be chooser. Better to have some rain than no rain.

[tireman4]

WPC Outlook

[Cromagnum]

KTRK is claiming 60% chance of rain on Thursday. I'm not seeing it unless you are ab hour or more north of Houston.

[Cpv17]

KTRK is claiming 60% chance of rain on Thursday. I'm not seeing it unless you are ab hour or more north of Houston.

Friday and Saturday ***.

[DoctorMu]

I'm running the sprinkler system tomorrow. That's bound to bring rain.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

No major issues with the short-term forecast for SE TX as mild/dry
quiet weather persists.

Skies have finally cleared across much of the region this afternoon.
With very weak ridging aloft in place tonight, look for mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies tonight as low temperatures range from the up-
per 40s across the Piney Woods into the lower and mid 50s elsewhere.
(Lows should be in the lower 60s at the beaches.)

As surface high pressure (to the east) continues to move further out
to the east, and the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly tomorrow,
we`ll likely see the return of mid/high clouds as low-level moisture
begins to slowly increase. This could lead to some patchy fog by to-
morrow night. Otherwise, a gradual warming trend will prevail. Highs
tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 70s and low temperatures in the
lower to mid 60s Tuesday night. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

The long term period brings a pattern change with periods of showers
and thunderstorms. A deepening upper level trough will dig over the
central Rockies/southwest CONUS by midweek. Ahead of this trough, a
sfc low develops over the central Plains, moving northeastward
towards the Mid MS Valley. This pattern will enhance southerly flow
in our region, along with increasing instability and a gradual
uptick in moisture into the end of the week. Wednesday looks warm
and relatively dry. Patchy fog/sea fog cannot be ruled out in the
evening into the morning, with the best potential Wednesday into
Thursday.

A slow-moving/weak cold front will move southeastward across the
region as the aforementioned sfc low moves across the central CONUS.
Will continue to monitor Thursday afternoon into Friday for
increasing rain/storm chances, as forcing and instability increase
with different vort maxes/shortwaves developing along the front just
north/northwest of SE TX. The ingredients for strong to severe
thunderstorms are there for Thursday, particularly for our northern
counties. However, and based on latest guidance and forecast
soundings, any storms developing on Thursday will need to overcome
the strong capping inversion. Will continue to monitor trends. It
will also be breezy in response to tighten pressure gradient.

PWAT values will range into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range by Friday as
the slow-moving front finally enters our region. This will suggest
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms continuing into
Saturday. The front should finally move over the coastal waters by
Saturday. However, deterministic models and most ensemble means keep
precipitation chances continuing along and behind the front through
late Sunday. Given the differences in models, especially after
Friday, kept rain/storm chances near NBM guidance, with higher
chances for our northern counties.

Surface high pressure will finally build over the central/high
Plains late Sunday into early next week, pushing drier air into the
region. Breezy to windy conditions along with near average
temperatures can be expected behind in the wake of the front.

JM

[DoctorMu]

Euro AI has some coast low forming. GFS hammers us with a series of unsettled events. CMC is more of what I would expect. The Ensembles bring in rain, but late in the forecast period.

You’re quite infatuated with the CMC lol

There's not much of a bar when the GFS' southern solution is completely wrong. North of I-10 and Hwy 1*5 will see the most action.

[DoctorMu]

Ensembles see most of the rain east of Hwy 6 and north of Hwy 1*5.

[DoctorMu]

GFS has capitulated and now has a northern solution as well.

It looks like the cap in HOU area is progged to dig in.

[DoctorMu]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

The initial period will be characterized by a persistent onshore
surface flow regime that, while not producing any consequential
weather impacts for the time being, will set the stage for our
next chance at widespread rainfall (and potentially some strong
storms) on Thursday. Lee cyclogenesis along the CO/KS border will
continue to strengthen the synoptic pressure gradient over the
Central CONUS today as the system continues to deepen, thus
allowing for further increases in both temperature and near-
surface moisture both today and tomorrow. Afternoon high
temperatures should increase across the board by about 5 degrees,
reaching the upper 70s in most locations and the lower 70s along
the coast. This will be accompanied by an increase in surface dew
point values back into the 60s area wide by this evening as total
PW values increase to around 1.25 in. Overnight lows, aided by
increases in low-level cloud coverage, should remain confined to
the low to mid 60s. We could see some patchy fog development,
particularly near the coast, though recent increases in water
temperatures should prevent another significant dense sea fog
event.

Conditions on Wednesday will continue to reflect the warming and
moistening trend as the approach of a surface cold front
associated with the aforementioned low draws closer. Persistent
WAA, along with a slight southwestward shift in midlevel winds,
will produce highs in the 80s for most locations. HiRes models
continue to show some (very) spotty shower coverage during the
morning/early afternoon hours as a midlevel shortwave traverses
the region, but a stout capping inversion at around 800mb should
greatly inhibit the development of any widespread convection (for
the time being). Overnight lows will experience a similar boost as
the daytime highs due to WAA as well as further increases in
cloud cover. Most locations should sit at or just below 70.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A stormy weather pattern is expected to set up Thursday into
Friday with a wet pattern possibly continuing through much of the
upcoming weekend.

On Thursday, we are expecting to have an uptick in southerly flow
while an low level jet develops over Southeast Texas. Winds of
10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph is possible. Moisture transport
will be on the rise with PWs ranging between 1.3 and 1.6 inches in
the afternoon. Instability will be increasing, in particular
during the afternoon and evening. In addition, there will be some
mid to upper level disturbances moving overhead and a cold front
that is to push southeastward across Central Texas. The
combination overall would set the stage for the development of
showers and thunderstorms, probably starting in the afternoon on
Thursday given that capping might limit development during the
morning and early afternoon hours. As far as temperatures go, it
will feel "muggy" out there, with highs in the 80s and dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

As the cold front approaches Southeast Texas, we could see a rise
in shower and thunderstorm activity Thursday evening into Friday.
Forecast soundings also show somewhat favorable conditions for
strong to possibly severe storms sometime Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning, in particular for areas near and around the brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region. Main threats at this time would be
strong damaging winds and hail. The SPC Severe Weather Outlook
for Thursday into Friday morning currently has a Slight Risk (2
out of 5 level) for areas north along a line from Burleson County
northeastward through Trinity County. A Marginal Risk (1 out of 5
level) has been placed for areas south of this line to just north
of the I-10 corridor. The cold front is expected to push into
Southeast Texas sometime Friday morning. There are still a few
model disagreements on the placing and timing of the cold front,
but it is still expected to stall somewhere near the Texas
coastline and with an unstable airmass in place, we could see a
few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.

Conditions could remain stormy as we move into the weekend with a
coastal trough possibly developing on Saturday. This would
maintain good amounts of moisture over our region as a few more
upper level disturbances and vort maxes move aloft, while the
frontal boundary meanders nearby. Rain chances decrease Sunday as
the front finally moves further into the Gulf of Mexico. High
pressure builds over Texas Monday and the drier cooler air moving
into Southeast Texas could bring our high temperatures back into
the 60s.

As mentioned before, there are still a few model inconsistencies
especially near the end of the forecast period; Thus, expect a
few more adjustments made to the forecast in the next few days.
Regardless, be weather ready and continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

24

[jasons2k]

I think it’s been about a month since I posted ‘get ready for a mostly dry, cap-filled spring’

Seems to be going as expected. Get your sprinklers and hoses ready.

[DoctorMu]

The Hwy 6/Hwy 1*5 progs continue.